Welcome to the fifth and final release of my 2025 NFL Draft mock draft. As the draft approaches, I have carefully analyzed the top prospects and made predictions on which 32 players will be selected in the first round and which teams they will go to. It’s been a tedious process of balancing team needs, big-board rankings, historical trends and draft rumors to reach this pivotal point as a mock drafter.

It’s important to note my focus is on the players’ destinations rather than the actual pick numbers within the first round. After all, we care more about player-team pairings rather than the actual numbered slots. This also adheres closely to the rules of The Huddle Report’s mock draft accuracy competition, which I will be participating in.

Scoring rules:

• One point for a player selected in Round 1.
• A player matched to a team is worth two points.

For those looking for more guidance as you submit you final mock drafts, check out my Mock Draft 4.0 that features picks based on all the historical front office trends. Below the mock, you can also find a thread titled: “Past Mock Drafts Track Record.” Just some additional footnotes that go into mock draft research.

So without further ado, let’s take a look at my predictions for the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.

Enjoy!

• 2025 NFL Draft Guide
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• 2025 NFL Mock Drafts
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2025 NFL Mock Draft

1. Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward (QB – Cam Ward)

2. Cleveland Browns: Travis Hunter (WR/CB – Colorado)

3. New York Giants: Abdul Carter (EDGE – Penn State)

4. New England Patriots: Armand Membou (OT – Missouri)

5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ashton Jeanty (RB – Boise State)

6. Las Vegas Raiders: Mason Graham (DT – Michigan)

7. New York Jets: Will Campbell (OT – LSU)

8. Carolina Panthers: Jalon Walker (LB/EDGE – Georgia)

9. New Orleans Saints: Mykel Williams (EDGE – Georgia)

10. Chicago Bears: Colston Loveland (TE – Michigan)

11. San Francisco 49ers: Walter Nolen (DT – Ole Miss)

12. Dallas Cowboys: Tetairoa McMillan (WR – Arizona)

13. Miami Dolphins: Will Johnson (CB – Michigan)

14. Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Warren (TE – Penn State)

15. Atlanta Falcons:  Mike Green (DT – Marshall)

16. Arizona Cardinals: Josh Simmons (OT – Ohio State)

17. Cincinnati Bengals: Shemar Stewart (DT – Texas A&M)

18. Seattle Seahawks: Grey Zabel (IOL – North Dakota State)

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jihaad Campbell (LB – Alabama)

20. Denver Broncos: TreyVeon Henderson (RB – Ohio State)

21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Derrick Harmon (DT – Oregon)

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Emeka Egbuka (WR – Ohio State)

23. Green Bay Packers: Matthew Golden (WR – Texas)

24. Minnesota Vikings: Kelvin Banks Jr. (OL – Texas)

25. Houston Texans: Tyler Booker (IOL – Alabama)

26. Los Angeles Rams: Maxwell Hairston (CB – Kentucky)

27. Baltimore Ravens: Malaki Starks (S – Georgia)

28. Detroit Lions: Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE – Boston College)

29. Washington Commanders: Omarion Hampton (RB – North Carolina)

30. Buffalo Bills: Kenneth Grant (DT – Michigan)

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Conerly Jr. (OT – Oregon)

32. Philadelphia Eagles: Oluwafemi Oladejo (EDGE – UCLA)

Past Mock Drafts Track Record Thread (2025 Update)

By leveraging Grindingthemocks.com’s historical mock draft data (along with NFLMockdraftdatabase.com), I was able to compare how accurate mock drafts were by position, team, etc., leading up to the real-life NFL Draft.

Here are my major findings, which you should consider as you finalize your mock drafts before draft night.

• Safeties and cornerbacks represent the positions that NFL mock drafters have tended to undervalued the most, with the largest negative difference in mocked ADP versus real-life. Scheme disparities across the board mean teams value safeties and cornerbacks much differently than the public. Therefore, they often get drafted in a different order versus the pre-draft consensus.
• Case in point: In 2022, Derek Stingley was drafted over Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner-one of the few correct calls I made in 2022 despite the latter being viewed as the CB1 throughout the draft process until much closer to the draft.
• The consensus was correct about Trent McDuffie being CB3, but Andrew Booth Jr. was not the CB4 and fell out of the first round altogether. He had injury concerns, which likely caused the slip. Instead, Kaiir Elam was selected as the CB4-the last one in the first round.
• In 2023, among the fringe 1st-2nd round cornerbacks – Emmanuel Forbes, Kelee Ringo, Cam Smith – only Forbes went in Round 1 (pre-draft EDP at 25) as the second CB drafted.
• None of them were invited to the 2023 NFL Draft, either. The mocks had five CBs being drafted in Round 1 in 2023, when only four were selected. And the order was completely different after Devon Witherspoon went fifth overall to the Seahawks.
• Deonte Banks also overtook Joey Porter Jr. as the CB4, with Porter falling to pick 32 (second round in 2023).
• In 2023’s entire CB draft class, Witherspoon/Forbes went ahead of their EDP (as the top 2 CBs selected). Gonzalez, Banks, and Porter all went below their EDP among the top 5 CBs projected to go in Round 1.
• In 2021, Patrick Surtain II was viewed as a consensus CB1 throughout the entire pre-draft process but ended up going one spot behind Jaycee Horn.
• In 2024, Quinyon Mitchell fell to 22^nd overall, followed by Terrion Arnold at 24 and Nate Wiggins at 30. Both Mitchell and Arnold had EDPs of 16.
• It’s similar to this year’s CB group between Will Johnson and Jahdae Barron owning EDPs from 15-18. Possibly we might see them fall similarly to last year’s class.
• In 2022, safety Kyle Hamilton was the pre-draft S1 (12.7 EDP), and he was selected 14th overall. But two late safeties, Daxton Hill and Lewis Cine, snuck into the first round at 31 and 32, respectively. Both players did have pre-draft EDPs inside the top 32.
• So, although safeties are no longer valued at the same rate they were in years past, Branch’s status as a safety/slot cornerback (very similar to Daxton Hill) seemed to project he would be selected in Round 1. He was also one of the 17 players to receive an invite to the 2023 NFL Draft in Kansas City.
• However, that turned out not to be the case, given that he fell completely into Day 2.
• Jahdae Barron has drawn a lot of comparisons to Branch based on play style.
• There are 2 safeties with first-round projections in the 2025 class.
• Again, a wide range of outcomes with defensive backs.
• The next three positions that differ most from pre-draft mocks are running back, defensive end (edge), and offensive tackle.
• In 2022 the following differentials for running backs were Breece Hall (0), Kenneth Walker (+17), James Cook (+36), Rachaad White (+49), Brian Robinson (+15), Dameon Pierce (+21), Zamir White (+9) and Isaiah Spiller (-42).
• Of the eight highest pre-drafted 2022 rookie running backs, seven were drafted much earlier than mocks projected.
• In 2023, Bijan Robinson boasted a current EDP of 20.4. He HAMMERED the under as the eighth-overall pick by the Falcons.
• I hit on Bijan Robinson as a top-10 pick bet last season after considering how high NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah (and other NFL draft personnel) had Robinson ranked in his overall draft rankings.
• Historically speaking, DJ has slightly overvalued RBs in his top 150 rankings based on where they are drafted.
• In 2023, Jeremiah ranked Robinson third (went 8^th), Gibbs 29^th (went 12^th), Zach Charbonnet 50^th (went 52nd), Kendre Miller 78^th (went 71st), Israel Abanikanda 84^th (went 143rd), Roschon Johnson 85^th (went 115th), De’Von Achane 87^th(went 84th), Tyjae Spears 105^th (went 81^st) and Tank Bigsby 121^st (went 88^th).
• He ranked players, on average, five spots above their actual draft spot.
• USC’s MarShawn Lloyd is Daniel Jeremiah’s highest-ranked RB in 2024.
• In 2024, Jeremiah ranked Lloyd (56^th went 88th), Jonathon Brooks (57^th went 46th), Ray Davis (81^st went 128th), Blake Corum (90^th went 83rd), Trey Benson (91^st went 66th), Will Shipley (92^nd went 127th), Jaylen Wright (95^th went 120th), Bucky Irving (105^th went 125th), Issac Guerendo (122^nd went 129th) and Braelon Allen (123^rd went 134^th).
• In terms of the mock drafters evaluating the RB position, three of the top four were drafted much earlier than mocks projected in 2023. 9 of the top 13 went earlier than mocks predicted.
• In 2024, the mocks were closer to projecting the RBs’ real-life draft capital, albeit in a bad class.
• I think using DJ’s top 150 is still the best way to gauge RBs. Take a couple spots off his rankings and it’s been pretty spot on.
• Ashton Jeanty (3), Omarion Hampton (13), TreyVeon Henderson (32), Quinshon Judkins (38), Kaleb Johnson (53), RJ Harvey (99), Cam Skattebo (102), Jaydon Blue (107), Bhayshul Tuten (120), DJ Giddens (130), Trevor Etienne (143) Devin Neal (146) Bradshard Smith (149).
• Given this class looks much closer to 2023 or 2022, I think we could see more RBs selected earlier in Round 1.
• Among the edge rushers in 2022, it was a clean sweep, with Travon Walker, Aidan Hutchinson, and Kayvon Thibodeaux going as the first three pass rushers.
• However, after the top 3, there was a stark fall-off for Jermaine Johnson. Going into the draft, he was being mocked inside the top 10. He fell to 26th overall as the fourth edge rusher. DT Jordan Davis was also drafted ahead of him.
• Not so dissimilar to Dallas Turner falling to 17^th after posting an EDP of 11.8 entering the 2024 draft. Laiatu Latu and Byron Murphy went ahead of Turner, despite being mocked behind him consistently pre-draft.
• But other than Turner (who was viewed as a poor EDGE1), the mocks nailed the order with Jer’Zhan Newton falling out of Round 1 due to medicals.
• Devonte Wyatt ended up being selected extremely close to his EDP (26 vs. 28), but No. 5 edge rusher George Karlaftis fell to 30th overall (EDP 23 overall).
• In the 2023 class, the top-3 edge rushers pre-draft were pretty dialed in between Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, and Lukas Van Ness, but there was a chance of a mix-up based on historical tracking. DT Jalen Carter‘s off-the-field issues added another layer into the mix.
• In the actual draft, Anderson, Wilson, Carter, and then Van Ness were selected, exactly as the mocks mostly predicted, similar to the 2022 edge class.
• But we got a massive shake-up in the second tier of edge rushers/defensive tackles between Myles Murphy, Nolan Smith, Bryan Bresee, Calijah Kancey, and Will McDonald.
• Same with Mazi Smith, Adetomiwa Adebawore, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, and Keion White.
• The official order went to McDonald (EDP 30), Kancey (EDP 25), Mazi Smith (EDP 33), Myles Murphy (EDP 22), Bryan Bresee (EDP 29), Nolan Smith (EDP 14) and Felix Anudike-Uzomah (EDP 52.4). Adebawore went in Round 4, while White fell to Round 2.
• Clemson’s Bryan Bresee was knocked in 2023 mocks due to his injuries the last few years, but his lack of top-30 visits suggested teams felt comfortable with their evaluations of him as a first-rounder. He went exactly where his EDP projected him for at 29^th overall to the Saints.
• Keion White was invited to the NFL Draft, but every year, the NFL invites one, if not multiple, players who do not get selected in Round 1. As a result, the NFL is inviting fewer prospects to avoid this happening in the future.
• As it stands right now, the 2025 edge rush/DT class after Abdul Carter features Mason Graham, Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams, Mike Green, Shermar Stewart, Derrick Harmon, Kenneth Grant, Walter Nolen, Donovan Ezeiruaku and James Pearce as the projected Round 1 crop.
• Nic Scourton, Tyliek Williams, Landon Jackson, Darius Alexanders and J.T. Tuimoloau are on the Rd 1/2 cusp.
• I’d be more confident that Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton will go higher than James Pearce Jr., who could fall out of Round 1.
• Chop Robinson profiles similarly to some of these boom-or-bust 2025 edge rushers, but he ended up going higher than his EDP in 2024.
• You usually want to lean toward EDGE over DT, with the former harder to project versus pre-draft projections. However, this wasn’t much the case in the past two seasons, with many DTs beating their EDPs. After the top guys, we are starting to see more value placed in the interior beef of NFL defenses.
• When in doubt, mock another DT/EDGE defender in Round 1 to beat their expected EDP.
• Derrick Harmon, Walter Nolen, or even Darius Alexander could go much higher than expected.
• Among the 2022 offensive tackle class, the mock drafters were correct, going five-for-five in the projected order of the top offensive tackles. However, the top tackles were over-projected by specific draft positions.
• And at the same time, the mock drafters were severely under-drafting guards and centers by 5-10 draft slots on average between Kenyon Green, Zion Johnson, Tyler Linderbaum, and Cole Strange (lol).
• That suggests that OL with “guard/center” profiles at the next level, such as Peter Skoronsoki, O’Cyrus Torrence, Joe Tippman (center), and John Michael Schmitz (center), may go much earlier than anticipated. The G/C profiles in 2023 went much later than in 2022.
• In 2023, the top four tackles mocked were the top four drafted. The only error was Darnell Wright‘s going second when he was projected as the fourth OT. The mock drafters were not high enough on the pure tackles as he was projected behind OG/OT Peter Skoronski.
• The 2024 class features Joe Alt, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga, JC Latham and Troy Fautanu as the top-5 consensus.
• Alt was right at the top, but J.C. Latham was second, followed by Olu Fashuna, Taliese Fuaga, Amarius Mims and then Troy Fautanu.
• The mocks didn’t get the right order or even the correct top-OL players.
• But at the top, mock drafters have been correct in pegging the first OT drafted in five of the last six drafts. The last time the mocks got it wrong was back in 2020, when Alabama’s Jedrick Wills was selected over Tristan Wirfs.
• The media’s most overvalued position is quarterback. Shook, I know. The narrative that teams fall in love with a QB is stronger in public perception than in actual reality.
• So, in a 2022 quarterback draft class that was particularly poor, it was not too shocking to see the QBs fall.
• Recall that Malik Willis was -145 going over pick 12.5.
• Kenny Pickett was -115 on both sides of pick 16.5. I recommended the overs on both of these props last season. Winner winner chicken dinner.
• 2023 was slightly different from a much better QB class. In yet, Will Levis had an EDP at eighth overall – ahead of Anthony Richardson. Levis fell to the second round. Woof.
• Also, can’t forget Hendon Hooker‘s EDP at 29 overall in 2023. He was drafted in the third round.
• Recall even in a stacked 2021 class where five quarterbacks were projected to go top-10, only three did so.
• The 2020 class was pretty chalk – besides the media being much lower on Justin Herbert than NFL teams. Same thing in 2019, but with Daniel Jones.
• Can’t help but get Drake Maye vibes here – as the quarterback the media is not hyping up is the one that actually goes earlier than expected.
• C.J. Stroud fell slightly from being the No. 1 favorite to sometimes being the third or fourth QB selected last year. I doubted that he would be one of the top-2 quarterbacks selected, and I was proven correct.
• That brings us to last season, where six QBs were drafted in the 1^st 12 selections.
• J.J. McCarthy, I bet him to go later than expected with his draft position set at 5.5 (EDP at 5). But he didn’t make past 12 where Denver selects, given their desperation for a QB.
• I was also wrong last season. I was hammering the under on 4.5 QBs drafted in Round 1. Bo Nix (EDP 25) and Michael Penix Jr. (EDP 26) are just classic examples of media driving up QBs in mock drafts. That’s not based. Big swing and miss. But I don’t think my process was bad. We had two teams obsessed with those players.
• I’m fading the QBs in the 2025 draft class. EDPs of 18, 27 and 45 between the top-4 rookie QBs.
• Interior off-ball linebacker used to be the second-most overvalued position by the public. They just aren’t as valuable as they have been in years past, but the market has somewhat adjusted.
• The market was all over Edgerrin Cooper as a mid-round 2 pick and as the first linebacker selected. Cooper was the LB1 by consensus (46th overall).
• In 2023, no linebacker was projected to go in the first round. Some viewed Drew Sanders as more of a pass rusher than a traditional middle linebacker. Jack Campbell was the first LB selected by the Lions at 18th overall, well ahead of his EDP (44th overall).
• In 2022, two linebackers were drafted in the first round: Quay Walker (22nd by Green Bay) and Devin Lloyd (27th by Jacksonville). Lloyd fell seven spots behind EDP, while Walker beat his by 11 spots (31 EDP). The next LB was not selected until 58th overall.
• It’s been two of the last three seasons where a traditional LB has drastically beaten their EDP. And both times, it was not even the consensus LB1 in the class.
• Daniel Jeremiah said on a conference call last draft season that he wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan LB Junior Colson gets drafted in Round 1. Colson went in Round 3.
• So, outside one LB usually meeting or drastically exceeded EDP, most are way overvalued. Jihaad Campbell’s EDP is 18 and I’d be looking for the over. The one who could surprise is UCLA’s Carson Schwesinger.
• The positions where there’s the least amount of variance between mock drafts and real selections include defensive tackle, tight end, outside linebacker, and guard. The public and the NFL are more in lockstep with these positions. So, if you are looking to follow the field with certain picks, these tend to be the positions to gravitate toward.
• The IOL was a bit wild in 2022, but the defensive tackle and tight end positions were spot-on based on the expected draft position.
• In 2023, we got zero IOL draft picks in Round 1, but that was to be expected. DT seemed to be valued higher than mocks, which could be significant as defenses look away from edge rushers.
• Brock Bowers falling to 13 last year was truly an anomaly because of all the QB thirst. He was expected to be a lock top-10 selection (11.5 EDP).
• Expect this year’s top TEs to be drafted highly.
• And DTs to potentially go higher than their EDPs as previously mentioned.
• As for the IOL class, I’d keep it simple.
• Graham Barton, Jackson Powers-Johnson and Jordan Morgan should all go pretty close to their projection draft capital. Maybe Zack Frazier sneaks into Day 1, but IOL sneaking into Rd 1 has not how past drafts have played out.
• Note that OT Jordan Morgan went ahead of IOL Powers-Johnson last season. Value the premium positions when you are able.
• From a specific team perspective, my studies have shown that the Steelers, Seahawks, Lions, Packers, Saints, and Texans have had the largest difference in players going much earlier than mocks predicted pre-draft. If you plan on going “off-the-rails” and getting away from chalk in a particular selection, these are the teams to do it with.
• Although last season, it was only the Texans/Packers to have “reaches” with their first picks.
• In 2022, the Packers overvalued a linebacker 22nd overall. Houston took a guard 15th overall, nearly ten spots ahead of EDP.
• In 2023, the Lions drafted an LB/RB in the first round. Seattle drafted CB Devon Witherspoon when everybody thought they would go for DL.
• Pittsburgh’s numbers are heavily skewed due to their outlandish selection of safety Terrel Edmunds in 2018. Their more recent first-round picks – Devin Bush, Najee Harris, Kenny Pickett, Broderick Jones, Troy Fautanu – have been easier to predict.
• Simply put, Mike Tomlin and company aren’t afraid to show their love for particular prospects, and it’s worth chasing.
• The Saints went surprisingly chalky the last three seasons, which is a different approach. I wouldn’t be shocked if they totally skip QB.
• The NFL teams that have been mostly aligned with pre-draft projections include Denver, New York (Jets), Arizona, Chicago, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Minnesota, Baltimore, and Indianapolis.
• Don’t anticipate many of those teams to go way off the board with their Round 1 pick(s).
• Anticipate they also don’t pass up on the best player available if the value falls to them.
• As for specific college teams, there are a few that stand out in terms of the mock drafts not being high enough on their players. The football factories that lead the way include Ohio State, Georgia, TCU, San Diego State, and Houston.
• Schools like San Diego State and Houston can be linked back to specific wild first-round picks (Rashaad Penny, Payton Turner), but it’s interesting nevertheless that these less polarizing schools produced first-rounders.
• The top prospects from the listed schools include Emeka Egbuka, Josh Simmons, Donovan Jackson, TreyVeon Henderson, J.T. Tuimoloau, Quinshon Judkins, Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams, Malaki Starks, Jack Bech and Savion Williams
• Ohio State and Georgia have plenty of players who project to go high in this year’s draft, so you might want to be higher on prospects that mock drafts have going later and vice versa.
• Because OSU players are often under-mocked by the consensus, don’t be afraid to fill your mock draft with them to your heart’s desire. By my account, I’d say five Buckeyes easily could be Round 1 players.
• While scraping Grindingthemocks.com, I discovered that since 2018, 10 players with an EDP of 50 or more were drafted in the first round.
• Last year, that player was WR Ricky Pearsall.
• Other than Cole Strange, the highest EDP (55th) for a first-round player was Kansas State edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah.
• Jaxson Dart, Emeka Egbuka, Maxwell Hairston, Josh Conerly, Luther Burden, Trey Amos, TreyVeon Henderson, Donovan Jackson, Shavon Revel, Nic Scourton, Tyleik Williams, Jalen Milroe, Darius Alexander, J.T. Tuimoloau, Aireontae Ersery, Jayden Higgins and Quinshon Judkins are the next closest in consideration as Round 1 pick with EDPs outside the top-32.
• Given that, on average, we get at least one player with an EDP outside the top 50 in Round 1, my best bets include Tuimoloau, Alexander, and Scourton.
• In his annual article, NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero listed Schwesinger, Egbuka, Jared Wilson, Tyleik Williams and Tyler Shough as the darkhorse 1^st rounders.

More 2025 NFL Mock Drafts

• Andrew Erickson: 2025 NFL Mock Draft (2.0, 3.0, 4.0)
• Pat Fitzmaurice: 2025 NFL Mock Draft (2.0, 3.0, 4.0)
• Derek Brown: 2025 NFL Mock Draft
• Kurt Blakeway: 2025 NFL Mock Draft (2.0, 3.0)
• Matthew Jones: 2025 NFL Mock Draft (2.0)
• Kent Weyrauch: 2025 NFL Mock Draft
• Mike Fanelli: 2025 NFL Mock Draft With Trades (2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0)
• Richard Janvrin: 2025 NFL Mock Draft (2.0, 3.0)
• Russell Brown: 2025 NFL Mock Draft (2.0)
• Seth Woolcock: 2025 NFL Mock Draft With Trades
• Jason Kamlowsky: 2025 NFL Mock Draft Two Rounds