We’re going to take a look at four quarterbacks to avoid for the 2025 fantasy football season. The main factor we’ll be considering is average draft position (ADP), with the big question being whether you can get this type of production later in the draft.

We’ll use FantasyPros’ best ball ADP, which is an aggregate of player pricing from sites like Underdog, Drafters, RealTime Fantasy Sports, and BestBall10s. This makes sense because best ball is the most active format at this stage of the offseason. With that in mind, here are my four quarterbacks to avoid for 2025.

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Quarterbacks to Avoid

Baker Mayfield (QB – TB) | ADP: QB7 (89.4 Overall)

Baker Mayfield is coming off a career year where he threw 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. The Buccaneers quarterback averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game, finishing as the QB3 on the season.

While Mayfield had a career-high 378 rushing yards last year, this feels like an outlier, as his previous high was 165. As a pocket passer, Mayfield will need to maintain elite production through the air to maintain this QB7 draft cost.

That’s going to be a bit difficult, especially with stud offensive coordinator Liam Coen now the head coach for the Jaguars. We also have to consider that last year was Mayfield’s only season with strong fantasy production. Even in 2023 with the Bucs, we saw Mayfield average only 16.7 points per game, which was good for QB16 on the season. Do you want to pay a premium price for a player coming off a career year?

When you look at the player pool, you see there are other quarterbacks with similar upside to Mayfield but available later. Dak Prescott, who now has an improved offensive line along with a new weapon in George Pickens, is currently QB15 in ADP. Is there enough separation between Mayfield and Prescott to warrant a 30+ pick gap in price? My answer is no, which is why Mayfield looks like a quarterback to avoid this year.

Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) | ADP: QB8 (95.2 Overall)

Kyler Murray just put together a disappointing season, which included 3,851 passing yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The dual-threat quarterback averaged 33.6 rushing yards per game last year, which was the second-lowest of his career. This production resulted in a QB12 finish in fantasy points per game. Despite this underwhelming season, we’re not getting any discount at his current QB8 cost.

Even with Marvin Harrison Jr. likely showing improvement in his second year, along with a stud tight end in Trey McBride, it’s tough to get excited about this Cardinals offense. The reason is they still have the same offensive coordinator in Drew Petzing, who ran a vanilla offense that was too run-heavy. Can we count on an uptick in passing volume with the same play-caller? Would it shock you to see the Cardinals continue to emphasize the run with James Conner and Trey Benson?

These are questions to consider when you’re deciding whether to pay for Murray’s inflated price. The biggest issue here is that you can get better value later in the draft. If you’re looking for a quarterback who can run, why not target Justin Fields (QB11) instead?

The Jets’ new starting quarterback is available 10+ picks later. When Fields started for the Steelers last season, he averaged 19.1 points per game (QB7). In other words, you’re getting similar production at a cheaper cost, making Murray a player to avoid at his price.

Brock Purdy (QB – SF) | ADP: QB12 (109.6 Overall)

Brock Purdy averaged 19.2 fantasy points per game (QB8) in 2023 and 18.6 PPG (QB12) last season, providing a solid floor at quarterback. The problem is there’s not much upside here, especially with a 49ers offense that isn’t as stacked as before. Deebo Samuel has moved on to the Commanders, while Brandon Aiyuk is returning from a torn ACL. Jauan Jennings had a terrific 2024 season and Ricky Pearsall has potential, but the pass-catching group is more solid than spectacular.

When you’re taking a pocket passer like Purdy, you need high-end passing production for him to be worth the cost. This is a quarterback who has rushed for 323 yards and 144 yards in the last two seasons. It’s hard to see Purdy putting up gaudy passing numbers to provide profit at his QB12 cost, especially with the decline of the 49ers’ offense.

Looking at the other pocket passers in the draft, you can get better value later. Aside from Prescott, whom I mentioned earlier, you can target Jordan Love (QB17) about 20 picks later than Purdy. Love is also in a run-heavy offense like Purdy, but you could argue that the Packers quarterback has more upside due to his superior tools and athleticism.

The bottom line is that Purdy is a floor pick at his current cost, leaving little room for profit due to a declining offense and limited rushing production.

Jared Goff (QB – DET) | ADP: QB13 (114.3 Overall)

Jared Goff just put up a phenomenal season that included 4,629 passing yards with 37 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. But even in a year where he set career highs across the board, this resulted in a QB7 finish in fantasy points per game.

While you’re getting a bit of value considering that Goff goes off the board as the QB13, it’s hard to feel excited about a pocket passer in a run-heavy offense that just lost their stud play-caller in Ben Johnson.

This doesn’t mean the Lions’ offense is going to severely decline; it’s just a variable to consider when projecting their production in 2025. Goff needs to throw for 35+ touchdowns to hit his ceiling, which feels a bit less likely with Johnson no longer calling plays.

We should also see the defense improve, which could result in more rushing production. Remember that Goff benefited from shootouts due to a defense that was decimated by injury last year.

There are a few pocket passers who you can get later in drafts, such as C.J. Stroud (QB18). The third-year quarterback has a new play-caller after the Texans’ offense was held back by a run-heavy approach from former offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik.

Enter new offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who worked on Sean McVay’s staff for the last two seasons. We could easily see a bounce back from Stroud, making him a better value at cost than a veteran like Goff.

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