Overvalued and undervalued are relative terms. The following four players are split evenly into the two categories mentioned above. However, readers shouldn’t confuse the overvalued players as undraftable at any point or in any format, with more on the latter to come. Gamers also shouldn’t draft undervalued rookies at any cost, as doing so would sap their value. Still, it’s not too early to start moving rookies around and ranking them while assessing their value in 2025 fantasy football leagues.
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Overvalued and Undervalued Fantasy Football Rookies
Overvalued
Travis Hunter (WR – JAC): 40.0 Underdog Best Ball ADP | WR23
Travis Hunter’s inclusion as an overvalued rookie must include some qualifications. Gamers in best ball leagues absolutely shouldn’t completely fade him. The 2024 Heisman Trophy winner’s upside is immense. Furthermore, gamers can make lineup construction decisions, such as mixing in more high-floor wideouts or drafting an extra wideout, around Hunter to compensate for potential weekly inconsistencies.
Gamers entering many re-draft leagues should also mix Hunter into their portfolios. However, his price is a bit rich for gamers participating in only a few leagues with friends, family or work colleagues.
The good news for fantasy gamers is that the organization views him as a wide receiver first.
HC Liam Cohen on Travis Hunter’s Role: “he’ll play primarily on offense to start.” pic.twitter.com/oaq0dpkvUY
– Zach Savage (@zaxavage) April 25, 2025
Nevertheless, they also intended to get Hunter familiar with the defensive scheme. Any split focus would be challenging for a professional football player, let alone an incoming rookie. Also, what does primarily equate to for a route participation rate for Hunter? According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, 32 wide receivers had at least an 80.6% route participation rate in 2024. Puka Nacua‘s was 71.9%, and he was tied for the WR5 in half-point per reception (half PPR) points per game (15.2) in 2024. So, a truly gifted wideout can flirt with a 70% route participation rate and dominate in fantasy football. Things get much dicier if Hunter’s route participation dips below 70% while mixing in on defense.
The offensive environment for Hunter is mixed in 2024. Brian Thomas had a superb rookie season, but the other pass-catching weapons beyond him are inexperienced, unproven or underwhelming. So, the target tree should be narrow, with Thomas and Hunter commanding a high percentage of targets. That’s a check in the pros column for Hunter.
Unfortunately, Liam Coen is a first-time head coach, and the pass/run split and pace could be unfavorable for Hunter. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Buccaneers were tied for the fourth-fewest situation-neutral plays per-60 minutes (57) and tied for the 12th-lowest situation-neutral pass rate (54%) with Coen as the club’s offensive coordinator in 2024.
Coen was the offensive coordinator for the Rams in 2022, while head coach Sean McVay called the plays. The Rams were tied for the fewest situation-neutral plays per 60 minutes (52) and mid-pack in situation-neutral pass rate (55%) in 2022. Again, Coen didn’t call plays that year, but his play-calling tendencies in 2024 aligned with his mentor’s.
In addition, the Jaguars also took two swings in the draft at running back, and they didn’t trade or cut Travis Etienne or Tank Bigsby. Could the additions be a sign that Coen intends to establish the run like he successfully did with the Buccaneers last year? It might. There are enough holes to poke in Hunter’s immediate outlook to provide a pause before drafting him at his ADP. Instead, gamers bullish on Jacksonville’s passing game’s potential this year should consider double-dipping on middle or lower-tier quarterbacks and picking Trevor Lawrence with one of those selections. Gamers can also revisit drafting Hunter in the summer after beat reporters cover him in training camp and the Jaguars unleash him in the preseason. For instance, drafting Hunter at this ADP or earlier will be more palatable if he’s not used on defense in training camp or the preseason. For now, the two-way Heisman Trophy Award winner is slightly overpriced.
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE): 70.5 Underdog Best Ball ADP | RB23
As is the case with Hunter, there are things to like about Quinshon Judkins. He’s an exceptional athlete, with excellent size and speed for a running back.
Quinshon Judkins is a RB prospect in the 2025 draft class. He scored an unofficial 9.88 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 23 out of 1909 RB from 1987 to 2025.
Splits projected, times unofficial.https://t.co/Cr6u9LMCnK pic.twitter.com/QFXrFuG9Rb
– RAS.football (@MathBomb) March 1, 2025
Judkins was also a productive runner at Ole Miss and Ohio State. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Judkins had 739 career rush attempts for 3,786 yards, 5.1 yards per carry, 3.23 yards after contact per attempt, 197 missed tackles forced as a runner and 45 rushing touchdowns in 42 games. Judkins is built to handle the load as a workhorse runner.
Additionally, the Browns spent a premium pick on him, snagging him with the fourth pick in the second round. Judkins was the third running back picked in the 2025 NFL Draft. Ashton Jeanty (the sixth pick) and Omarion Hampton (the 22nd pick) were selected before Judkins.
Judkins could live up to his ADP as the RB23. However, as his inclusion in this section indicates, he has significant warts within and out of his control. First, the closing line of Lance Zierlein’s overview for Judkins said, “Judkins might need to be paired with a slasher, but he has the ingredients needed to become a three-down RB1.” Cleveland’s incumbent running back Jerome Ford could serve as Judkins’ slasher complement. Additionally, the Browns went back to the well at running back in the NFL Draft, picking Dylan Sampson with the 24th pick in the second round, perhaps indicating they also view Judkins best used with a slashing complement.
Judkins might also lack the passing-game chops to be an asset as a receiver. In 42 career collegiate contests, Judkins had only 69 targets, 59 receptions (1.4 per game), 442 receiving yards (10.5 per game), 0.76 yards per route run, 0.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and five receiving touchdowns. He also earned a target on an unimpressive 11.9% of his 581 career routes. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, 61 running backs in the NFL ran 100 routes last year, including the postseason. Judkins’ 11.9% targets per route run would translate to 0.12 targets per route run, which would have been 58th out of last year’s sample of 61 running backs who ran at least 100 routes.
Unless Judkins is a much better target earner and receiver than he showcased in college, he’ll have a ton of pressure on his rushing production to carry the load for his fantasy value. Unfortunately, joining the Browns might not be optimal for Judkins toting the rock in neutral and positive game scripts.
Cleveland’s consensus team win total is 5.5, juiced to -125 on the under. Unless the sportsbooks and betting public are wrong, the Browns will likely often be in negative game scripts in losing contests this year.
Running backs can be fantasy assets on lousy teams. Nevertheless, it’s not an ideal recipe for fantasy success.
Since 2022, 19 teams have won fewer than 5.5 games. The following table has the top-scoring fantasy running backs in half PPR points per game among running backs on those teams, and the rankings are among running backs who played more than two games in those respective seasons.
Three of the 19 running backs (15.8%) on the table were top-12 running backs, seven (36.8%) finished between RB13 and RB24 and nine (47.4%) were the RB25 or worse.
Alvin Kamara‘s RB6 finish last year was the best of the sample. Kamara’s one of the NFL’s best pass-catching backs, and he scored eight touchdowns in 14 games in 2024. James Conner (tied for RB9 in 2023) had only 2.1 receptions per game and 12.7 receiving yards per game in 2023, and Chuba Hubbard had 2.9 receptions per game and 11.5 receiving yards per game as the RB12 in 2024. So, it’s possible to finish as an RB1 with mediocre receiving production on a losing team. However, Conner had nine touchdowns in 13 games, and Hubbard had 11 in 15. Cleveland’s running backs combined for only seven touchdowns in 2024.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Browns were 31st in yards per play (4.6), 29th in rushing yards per game (94.6) and 32nd in scoring offense (15.2 points per game). Moreover, per Sumer Sports, the Browns were 32nd in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, tied for 22nd in EPA per rush and 32nd in success rate (36.7%) last year.
Circling back to the sample of the 19 top-scoring running backs from teams with five wins or fewer since 2022, 15 (78.9%) were the RB21 in half PPR points per game or worse, and, again, nine (47.4%) were the RB25 or worse. Judkins would need to be a significant outlier to drastically outperform his ADP, and the likelier outcome is that he breaks even or falls short of his ADP. It’s unwise to get caught up in rookie fever and chase an outlier outcome from Judkins at his ADP. Instead, invest elsewhere and tip your cap to your leaguemate who drafts him if Judkins takes the NFL by storm.
Undervalued
Bhayshul Tuten (RB – JAC): 121.4 Underdog Best Ball ADP | RB39
The Buccaneers were 31st in EPA per rush in 2023, with Dave Canales as the club’s offensive coordinator. Coen had Tampa Bay’s running game humming in 2024. The Buccaneers were tied for fifth in EPA per rush last season. As an understudy of McVay, it’s unsurprising that Coen constructed a highly productive running game as a play-caller and offensive coordinator in 2024.
He’s immediately putting his fingerprints on Jacksonville’s running back room and rushing attack. The Jaguars made Bhayshul Tuten the seventh running back selected in this year’s NFL Draft when they picked him with the second pick in the fourth round. They also picked pass-catching running back LeQuint Allen with the 20th pick in the seventh round of this year’s NFL Draft. In addition, they also added an offensive lineman in the third round to help bolster the offensive line. Jacksonville’s actions suggest they want to revamp their running game, and two picks at the position also hint at their dissatisfaction with incumbents Etienne and Bigsby.
Thankfully, Coen isn’t inheriting an entirely bereft rushing attack. The Jaguars were tied for 14th in EPA per rush in 2024.
Tuten has the juice to add a substantial spark to Jacksonville’s rushing attack and offense. Tuten had a head-turning showing at the NFL Draft Combine, testing well as a jumper and runner.
Bhayshul Tuten is a RB prospect in the 2025 draft class. He scored an unofficial 9.24 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 147 out of 1909 RB from 1987 to 2025.
Splits projected, times unofficial.https://t.co/19cy10G8tV pic.twitter.com/OeQ15Crqqb
– RAS.football (@MathBomb) March 1, 2025
Tuten was also productive in his final year at Virginia Tech. He had 183 rush attempts for 1,150 rushing yards, 6.3 yards per attempt, 4.40 yards after contact per attempt, 62 missed tackles forced and 15 rushing touchdowns in 2024. He also chipped in 23 receptions, 81 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The lackluster receiving yardage would be more concerning if he didn’t have 227 receiving yards for Virginia Tech on 25 receptions in 2023 and 39 receptions for 557 receiving yards in two seasons at North Carolina A&T.
Jacksonville’s backfield is unsettled, but Tuten should have a prominent role, possibly headlining it. Last year, rookie Bucky Irving was the RB19 in half PPR points per game (13.0), and Rachaad White was the RB26 in half PPR points per game (10.9) among running backs who played more than one game. Tuten can smash his RB39 ADP if Coen brings even a fraction of Tampa Bay’s rushing success to Jacksonville this season.
Kyle Williams (WR – NE): 124.2 Underdog Best Ball ADP | WR59
Drake Maye had an encouraging rookie season in 2024 despite lacking quality supporting skill-position players, offensive line talent and coaching competency. The Patriots changed their coaching staff and had a well-regarded offseason by most football pundits. One of their additions was speedster Kyle Williams. He was the ninth wide receiver selected in this year’s NFL Draft as the fifth pick in the third round.
Among 131 wide receivers in this year’s NFL Draft class with at least 50 targets in 2024, Williams was PFF’s 16th-highest graded receiver by receiving grade, tied for 15th in yards per reception (17.1), tied for 13th in yards per route run (2.71) and second in receiving touchdowns (14). Williams also had 70 receptions on 101 targets for 1,196 receiving yards in 2024.
Williams also had inside and outside versatility, aligning wide 74.0% of the time and in the slot 25.3% of the time in his final collegiate season. He was a field-stretcher, with an 11.0-yard aDOT in his career and an 11.5-yard aDOT in 2024.
New England desperately needs Williams’ vertical juice in their offense. Even with a lack of a quality field-stretching wide receiver last year, Maye wasn’t gun-shy. Instead, he took shots to Kayshon Boutte. Maye played at least 81% of New England’s snaps in 10 games, and Boutte had a 15.2-yard aDOT, 34.1% air yards share, 15.0% target share, 0.15 targets per route run, 29 receptions (2.9 per game), 379 receiving yards (37.9 per game), two receiving touchdowns, 6.6 half PPR points per game and 9.7 expected half PPR points per game. Among 193 wideouts with at least 200 routes, including the postseason, in 2025, Boutte’s 34.1% air yards share in the 10 games Maye played the majority of the snaps would have ranked 18th, just ahead of Brian Thomas’s 33.9% air yards share.
Even with Stefon Diggs signing with the Patriots, it doesn’t require a vivid imagination to envision Williams overtaking Boutte for the field-stretching role and commanding a similar air yards share. It’s also probable Williams will enter this year as a more talented wideout as a rookie than Boutte was last season and is now. Williams is an exciting dart throw with substantial upside in an ascending offense.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
