Since our last update two weeks ago, there has been plenty of movement in fantasy football average draft position (ADP) on Underdog.
This comes at a time of year when teams have had a longer look at their rookies and rosters in general, gauging the weaknesses or strengths, as coaches have had to once more step in front of a microphone and give us a hint of what they’re thinking heading into the 2025 season. These are the biggest and most significant fantasy football best ball risers and fallers in recent weeks.
Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers
Best Ball Risers
J.K. Dobbins (RB – DEN) | ADP: 135 (+46)
Since our last update two weeks ago, J.K. Dobbins has gone from being a free agent to a thorn in the side of RJ Harvey bag-holders. Yes, Harvey is still likely to be the more productive back in this backfield, but Broncos beat reporters are all in line that this backfield will be a committee and Dobbins will be the likely third-down back and start with the goal-line role.
Dobbins ranked fourth in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) pass block grades last year, which is a noteworthy point when many rookies come into the league lacking in that department. Dobbins’ injury history is, of course, hard to ignore, but so too is the fact he set career highs in rushing attempts (195), rushing yards (905), yards per game (69.6), targets (38) and receptions (32) last season.
Nick Chubb (RB – HOU) | ADP: 178 (+34)
Another veteran coming off the free agent market is Nick Chubb, who, while he climbed similarly in his leap, didn’t have as high of an ADP in the first place. Chubb’s signing came on the back of Joe Mixon having not practiced during organized team activities (OTAs) and mini-camp due to having his foot in a boot.
Reports from the Texans suggest they don’t think it’s significant, and Chubb’s contract is so low in value that he’s not guaranteed to make the 53-man roster. Chubb is coming off career lows in virtually every category imaginable. He might be a year healthier, the offensive line in front of him could be the worst he’s ever played behind.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – PIT) | ADP: 183 (+15)
We knew for months that Aaron Rodgers was most likely to be the Steelers’ quarterback this season, but it hasn’t stopped drafters pulling him up in ADP by 15 spots in the last two weeks and over 30 in the last four weeks.
Rodgers’ future in the NFL looks murky, at best, having had his lowest completion percentage since 2019 last year, as well as his lowest yards per attempt since becoming a starter. Rodgers finds himself in the AFC North with at least two very good defenses, along with two offenses that will force him into potential high-scoring game scripts, which we know isn’t his forte.
Miles Sanders (RB – DAL) | ADP: 186 (+26)
The Cowboys still seem intent on their plan to use a backfield made up of Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders and Jaydon Blue for 2025. While that is a can of worms in itself, the gap between Sanders and Williams was too big, with Sanders going at 212 a month ago — 90 spots behind Williams.
Sanders is three years older than Williams, but has had far fewer serious injuries, and their contracts are incredibly similar. There just isn’t much to say. Sanders deserves to be so much higher in ADP, and the market is starting to accept that.
Travis Etienne (RB – JAX) | ADP: 104 (+12)
Another backfield that’s becoming slightly clearer in its murkiness is the Jaguars, where Travis Etienne seems primed to be the team’s No. 1 RB once again. Last year, Tank Bigsby had a higher yards per carry, a better run rate and a better juke rate, while also finishing six spots higher than Etienne as the RB33.
Bhayshul Tuten is now in the mix. This might be a backfield with massive opportunity or one with limited ceiling, as all three mix in.
Dont’e Thornton (WR – LV) | ADP: 198 (+17)
Reports out of Raiders mini-camp had Dont’e Thornton running ahead of Jack Bech with the first team offense and suggesting Bech has struggled in his rookie offseason, which has seen him fall 12 spots to 139th overall.
The same can’t be said for Thornton. While he’s quite the dart-throw prospect, pick 198 is an area where we can afford to make dart-throw picks.
Calvin Austin (WR – PIT) | ADP: 192 (+15)
Another wide receiver room generating question marks is in Pittsburgh, where Calvin Austin looks to have the jump on Roman Wilson. It seemed widely expected that Wilson would have the edge in his rookie season, having been drafted with the 84th overall pick in 2024, but by all accounts, Austin is the clear No. 2 WR right now.
Austin had 36 catches for 548 yards in his second season in the league. If he finds favor with Aaron Rodgers, that might be all it takes to solidify a role in 2025.
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) | ADP: 197 (+8)
Since the moment the 2024 season ended, Anthony Richardson‘s grip on the Colts’ starting job seemed about as strong as his completion rate (47.7%). Ever since Daniel Jones arrived in Indianapolis, the odds have continued to swing in Joness favor. Richardson’s upside is undeniable, but his floor is much lower than Jones’, which is quite the sentence given Jones’ history.
Rashee Rice (WR – KC) | ADP: 22.4 (+4)
One of the more significant risers is Rashee Rice, who is only up four spots, a much smaller number than many in this column, but given he’s now at pick 22, it’s much more significant. Rice was the WR5 in half-PPR points per game (PPG) across the first three weeks last year, until Patrick Mahomes collided with his ACL in the wake of an interception, ending Rice’s promising season.
Only Malik Nabers and Cooper Kupp had higher target shares than Rice’s 33% at that point, but Rice was doing that while Xavier Worthy was only a couple of games into his NFL career and Hollywood Brown sat on the injured reserve (IR). Whether Rice can replicate it with a healthy, more experienced Chiefs roster around him remains to be seen.
Best Ball Fallers
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND) | ADP: 201 (-15)
There simply isn’t a lot left to say at this point. The shoulder injury may or may not be serious for Richardson long term, but what is serious is how poorly he’s performed.
Quarterbacks since 2006 to have 250+ dropbacks & complete fewer than 50% of passes:
- 2009 – JaMarcus Russell (47.8%)
- 2011 – Tim Tebow (48.2%)
- 2024 – Anthony Richardson (47.7%)
NFL passes thrown after those seasons:
- Russell – 0
- Tebow – 8
- Richardson – TBD
Devin Neal (RB – NO) | ADP: 215 (-11)
When a team decides to bring in a veteran after mini-camp, it tends to suggest the rookie isn’t quite ready yet, and that seems the fair assumption given the Saints’ addition of Cam Akers. Devin Neal wasn’t a perfect prospect, but he does have big-play potential; it might just take a little longer until we see it.
Jaylin Noel (WR – HOU) | ADP: 177 (-14)
After the initial post-draft hype, we tend to see rookies fall behind veterans at this time of year, so it’s not surprising to see Jaylin Noel in this category. Noel’s path to relevancy is largely blocked by Christian Kirk. While he has enough wiggle and shift that we likely see some designed plays for him in 2025, consistent volume might be a problem.
Luther Burden III (WR – CHI) | ADP: 113 (-15)
Since the beginning of May, Luther Burden has been out of action with a soft tissue injury, which has meant he’s missed the vast majority of practice time for the Bears. Ben Johnson wasn’t overly happy about it.
Jack Bech (WR – LV) | ADP: 139 (-12)
Dont’e Thornton rises; Jack Bech falls.
Colston Loveland (TE – CHI) | ADP: 129 (-8)
Similarly to Burden, Bears rookie tight end Colston Loveland has been dealing with a minor injury to his shoulder. Loveland is expected to be fine for training camp, thankfully, and the Bears will be relieved having spent a top-10 pick on him.
We’ve seen undervalued rookies finish in the top two among tight ends in each of the last two seasons. Could Loveland be the next breakout rookie tight end? If so, he’ll need to hit the ground running at training camp.
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) | ADP: 156 (-5)
Does anybody want to do this anymore?
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