Mike Tyson has a famous and often-utilized quote, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face,” a bluntly put metaphor describing how even the best-laid plans of mice and men tend to go awry once an unforeseen variable gets thrown into the mixture. Let’s dive into some fantasy football auction draft advice.
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Fantasy Football Salary Cap Strategy
The variable that we will highlight today is the unpredictability of human emotions when it comes to drafting in a salary cap format, what commonly occurs in those leagues and how you can take advantage by filling your roster with the best resulting values accordingly.
Where to even begin.
In an ideal scenario, every manager in your home league would work off a similar “cheat sheet” designed to provide budget recommendations for salary cap or “auction” formats (I use the terms interchangeably). Sadly, we know that won’t be the case. League hosts often insert their own customized rankings directly next to players in the draft lobby, creating a bias that managers must contend with from the start.
Want to draft Ja’Marr Chase this year in a $200 salary cap league? Our website recommends acquiring him at $59 in our most updated rankings. ESPN’s Mike Clay (whom I deeply respect, and the same sentiment applies to any other website or writer I specifically mention) has him listed at $57. Yahoo! feels his value is closer to $64. And so forth.
Everyone’s opinion on a particular player will be different. Keep in mind that this is your team, so your thoughts are ultimately what will dictate its construction and makeup.
Perhaps you are of the mindset that you do not wish to spend more than 25% of your total budget on one given player. Placing all your eggs in one basket may have burned you in the past, and you’re attempting to mitigate risk by spreading your funds out elsewhere.
It is doubtful you’ll target the overall top-ranked player on the board, much less the most expensive option. That is your decision, and a reasonable thought process to pursue.
Yet, what happens if you are on the flip side of the coin, and attempted to spread the risk out last year, only to lose in the finals to a team with the “stars and scrubs” mindset instead? Is a $60 price point for Chase going to deter you? Heck no. Bag the top talent.’
A third monkey wrench? What if two players are equally aggressive in desiring the same player and are willing to spend more than the recommended amount to acquire him? If player A bids up Chase to $62, is player B still comfortable spending a little extra from their budget to ensure they land the top receiving threat at $65 instead? Or will they be scared off because their draft provider is telling them that they have gone over their recommended totals?
Variables, variables.
I’ve long been an advocate of salary cap/auction drafts over the standard/snake format, and feel that they bring an additional layer of intrigue to roster construction. Having participated in hundreds of leagues over the years, my best advice to you is the following:
Be flexible and willing to adjust. Like Bruce Lee stated, “Be like water.” Adaptive and fluid.
A salary cap draft can be held back-to-back with the same player pool, managers and budget, with wildly different results. Treat each draft as its own entity and scenario. In home leagues where you happen to know your fellow managers, keep in mind their tendencies and backgrounds.
I’m well aware that my friend Alex will go overboard bidding on rookies every season, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Or that his brother Kevin will save a ton of money in the back half of the draft, attempting to hoard undervalued players and sleeper selections that other managers wanted to snipe for the bare minimum. Having that basic understanding from the outset, I can work around their predispositions and adapt to their approach.
Before I dive into the main points of the article, I’d highly encourage readers to create their own set of dollar values before participating in drafts this season and then compare them to ours on the website. As I referenced earlier, you will have a better understanding of the tendencies of other managers in your home leagues.
If you live around Buffalo and your friend Steve is a die-hard Bills fan who is hellbent on having Josh Allen at the helm every year, adjust. Does your brother-in-law always make it a point to prioritize not having multiple key players on bye each week? Adjust. Perhaps your league uses tight end-premium scoring, where each reception earns additional points? Or “big plays” of over 20 yards get a bonus? Adjust.
To give you my mindset on writing this article and provide a bit of context, my thoughts below only apply to the current recommended dollar totals on FantasyPros as of today’s date. When I compare and contrast values, it is done in the framework of how much Player A will cost versus Player B within the same position. Comparing a $22 quarterback to a $22 receiver is an “apples vs. oranges” scenario that I avoid implicitly.
Best Salary Cap & Auction Draft Values
Best Running Back Value
Chase Brown (RB – CIN): $23 Estimate
I was heavily tempted to have Kaleb Johnson be my selection here, but the discount on Brown was too much to ignore. Brown is the RB9, according to our 2025 expert consensus rankings (ECR), and he finished 2024 as the RB10 overall. Yet, he falls to the RB18 here and is barely ranked ahead of D’Andre Swift and Aaron Jones. Did I miss something?
Brown handled nearly 24 touches each week after he took a stranglehold of the starting job in Week 9, and is an outstanding checkdown outlet for quarterback Joe Burrow. Even with the Bengals inking veteran Samaje Perine to a two-year deal in the offseason and drafting Tahj Brooks in the sixth round, I fail to envision a scenario (barring injury) where Brown doesn’t finish as a top-10 option, given the high potency of this offense. Give me this discount all season long.
Best Wide Receiver Value
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA): $21 Estimate
Folks remember Jaxon Smith-Njigba finished as the WR7 overall in PPR formats last year, right? And that he didn’t truly come into his own until Week 9, when the Seahawks started to prioritize getting him the ball over Tyler Lockett?
The WR12 in ECR, Smith-Njigba is the WR22 in our most recent update, and somehow fell below DJ Moore ($22), Tyreek Hill ($27) and DK Metcalf ($24). Even after Seattle swapped Geno Smith for Sam Darnold and brought in an aging slot receiver in Cooper Kupp to occasionally steal targets, I’m not concerned in the slightest about Smith-Njigba’s projected volume or role in this offense. He is the centerpiece in the passing game and is a mismatch no matter where he lines up on Sundays. This is a significant discount.
An honorable mention also goes to Drake London at $28.
Best Tight End Value
Tyler Warren (TE – IND): $2 Estimate
Value at the tight end position is a relative concept, considering that our recommendations only have six players listed in double-digit territory. That aside, the upside of Tyler Warren for just two dollars is crazy, considering he has the potential to become the top receiving threat in Indianapolis by season’s end (yes, even over Michael Pittman Jr.).
Warren is a do-it-all throwback in the Taysom Hill mold who can also play quarterback or running back if called upon, and glancing at the Colts’ depth chart, that is a distinct possibility. His highlight reel from Penn State was incredible, and I highly encourage you to take the opportunity to watch it if you have the chance.
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