One of the best ways to get an advantage in fantasy football is to pay attention to the platform you are playing on. Before a draft, you should make sure you know not just the scoring and roster settings of your platform, but also that platform’s specific average draft position (ADP). Make sure to notice both greater trends, like which positions tend to go earlier or later, and which individual players have outlier ADPs on a particular site. Doing this analysis is an excellent way to find values and avoid paying inflated prices.
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Today, we will focus on the value side of things, looking for the most underpriced players in current NFFC (National Fantasy Football Championship) drafts. I will compare NFFC ADP data over the last month to the current FantasyPros PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR). Before we get started, I should note that NFFC has one non-standard scoring setting to pay attention to: Passing touchdowns are worth six points instead of four, increasing the value of quarterbacks who hit pay dirt often (especially immobile pocket passers).
With that in mind, ECR and NFFC ADP aren’t a perfect one-to-one comparison, but they are close enough that this is still a valuable exercise. Let’s get right into finding the best values in NFFC fantasy football drafts.
Best Fantasy Football Draft Values: NFFC Leagues
A.J. Brown (WR – PHI) | NFFC ADP: 20/ECR: 13
Let’s start right at the top of draft boards, with a player who is consistently selected in the second round of 12-team drafts. Among players in the top 200, A.J. Brown’s NFFC ADP is the farthest removed from his ECR, just over 42% lower (technically, Justin Jefferson has a larger percentage difference, but his actual difference is just two spots). Where the experts have the Eagles star as a borderline first-round pick, NFFC drafters can snag him well into the second round.
I’m firmly on the experts’ side here, as Brown is one of my favorite fantasy picks heading into 2025. The thesis behind drafting Brown is simple: He’s one of the league’s very best receivers, and the only thing keeping him from truly elite fantasy production is that he plays for the league’s best team. Last year, Brown finished as the WR12 in PPR points per game (16.7). If you remove Week 9, in which he played fewer than half of the Eagles’ snaps, that number jumps to 17.6, which would have tied him with Nico Collins and CeeDee Lamb as the WR8.
Brown put up these numbers while the Eagles passed at absurdly low rates. Despite ranking third in the league in total plays per game, they attempted just 26.4 passes per game, easily the lowest in the NFL and over six below the league average. While his total stats are already excellent, any metric that adjusts for this low volume shows that Brown is one of the very best receivers in the league. Among qualified receivers, he ranked first in yards per team pass attempt, second in yards per route run, third in Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade and third in Fantasy Points Data’s route win rate.
Of course, the Eagles are likely to still rank near the bottom of the league in pass attempts in 2025. But what if they don’t? Maybe their defense regresses, Saquon Barkley misses time or the fact that they face the biggest jump in strength of schedule comes into play. If Philadelphia’s offense is even league-average in passing volume, Brown could put up elite WR1 numbers. If not, he can simply repeat last year’s performance as a backend WR1. Grabbing him in the middle of the second round is a no-brainer.
Austin Ekeler (RB – WSH) | NFFC ADP: 156/ECR: 129
Austin Ekeler isn’t as exciting as A.J. Brown. His ECR is nearly 30 full picks ahead of his NFFC ADP, but it’s still in the double-digit rounds. Still, the veteran pass-catcher stands out as a value, especially given that running backs in general tend to be priced up on NFFC. Last year, in his first season in Washington, Ekeler averaged 11 PPR points per game. That was good enough to rank him as the RB29, just behind backfield mate Brian Robinson (whose ADP is over 60 spots higher, by the way).
While 11 PPR points per game isn’t game-changing, sometimes you just need a startable running back, especially given that NFFC rosters are extremely deep with 10 starters and 10 bench slots. In PPR formats, Ekeler should be that startable option. Robinson and Ekeler both missed time with injuries, but Ekeler played more snaps than Robinson in the nine games where they were both active. The veteran also more than doubled his teammate in targets, although Robinson more than made up for the difference in carries. Still, on an ascending offense with Jayden Daniels at the helm, being the 1B in the backfield should be enough for Ekeler to provide value.
Of course, we can’t guarantee Ekeler will replicate his season from last year. He is 30 years old, after all. The age cliff is inevitable, especially at the running back position. However, there is also a non-zero chance his usage will trend positively. During last year’s regular season, Ekeler saw just 22% of the Commanders’ running back carries, while Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez combined for a 25% share.
In the postseason, that duo’s usage dropped to just five total carries (8%), while Ekeler improved to a 35% running back rush share. If the Commanders carry over that postseason usage into 2025, that difference will cause a non-negligible increase in Ekeler’s value. We also shouldn’t forget that he has handcuff upside if Robinson were to miss extended time — he averaged 15.7 PPR points in the three games Robinson missed last season. It probably isn’t a league-winning move, but snagging Ekeler at a discount is a great way to add running back scoring to your roster for cheap in a format where it can be hard to come by.
Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR) | NFFC ADP: 134/ECR: 123
Along with running backs, quarterbacks generally go higher on NFFC than they are ranked in ECR. This is due to both the change in scoring to six-point passing touchdowns and the fact that the very deep rosters mean more quarterbacks are rostered. In a traditional redraft league, it’s not always necessary to even draft a backup quarterback, as there will be usable options on waivers. That’s not the case in NFFC leagues, where most teams take advantage of the extra roster slots to hoard two or even three signal-callers.
With that in mind, this 11-pick discount on Stafford is much more enticing than it might first appear. A pocket-passer who has rushed for just 158 yards and one touchdown over the last four seasons combined, Stafford is the exact kind of quarterback who benefits most from the change to six-point passing touchdowns. He’s also due for some positive regression on that front after posting just a 3.9% touchdown rate last season, well below both his career mark of 4.5% and his 4.9% average since moving to Los Angeles. Stafford also receives an upgrade in weapons heading into 2025, as the slightly-washed Davante Adams replaces the very-washed Cooper Kupp.
At worst, taking the slight value on Stafford is a great way to lock up your QB2 spot for cheap. At best, we know that the veteran is capable of putting up a huge season if things break the right way. In 2021, his first season with the Rams, he finished as the fantasy QB5, thanks largely to 41 passing touchdowns. With great weapons and Sean McVay at the helm, the idea of the 37-year-old having another QB1 season certainly isn’t out of the question.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
