Mike Tyson has a famous and often-utilized quote, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face,” a bluntly put metaphor describing how even the best-laid plans of mice and men tend to go awry once an unforeseen variable gets thrown into the mixture. Let’s dive into some fantasy football auction draft advice.
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Fantasy Football Salary Cap Strategy
The variable that we will highlight today is the unpredictability of human emotions when it comes to drafting in a salary cap format, what commonly occurs in those leagues and how you can take advantage by filling your roster with the best resulting values accordingly.
Where to even begin.
In an ideal scenario, every manager in your home league would work off a similar “cheat sheet” designed to provide budget recommendations for salary cap or “auction” formats (I use the terms interchangeably). Sadly, we know that won’t be the case. League hosts often insert their own customized rankings directly next to players in the draft lobby, creating a bias that managers must contend with from the start.
Want to draft Ja’Marr Chase this year in a $200 salary cap league? Our website recommends acquiring him at $59 in our most updated rankings. ESPN’s Mike Clay (whom I deeply respect, and the same sentiment applies to any other website or writer I specifically mention) has him listed at $57. Yahoo! feels his value is closer to $64. And so forth.
Everyone’s opinion on a particular player will be different. Keep in mind that this is your team, so your thoughts are ultimately what will dictate its construction and makeup.
Perhaps you are of the mindset that you do not wish to spend more than 25% of your total budget on one given player. Placing all your eggs in one basket may have burned you in the past, and you’re attempting to mitigate risk by spreading your funds out elsewhere.
It is doubtful you’ll target the overall top-ranked player on the board, much less the most expensive option. That is your decision, and a reasonable thought process to pursue.
Yet, what happens if you are on the flip side of the coin, and attempted to spread the risk out last year, only to lose in the finals to a team with the “stars and scrubs” mindset instead? Is a $60 price point for Chase going to deter you? Heck no. Bag the top talent.’
A third monkey wrench? What if two players are equally aggressive in desiring the same player and are willing to spend more than the recommended amount to acquire him? If player A bids up Chase to $62, is player B still comfortable spending a little extra from their budget to ensure they land the top receiving threat at $65 instead? Or will they be scared off because their draft provider is telling them that they have gone over their recommended totals?
Variables, variables.
I’ve long been an advocate of salary cap/auction drafts over the standard/snake format, and feel that they bring an additional layer of intrigue to roster construction. Having participated in hundreds of leagues over the years, my best advice to you is the following:
Be flexible and willing to adjust. Like Bruce Lee stated, “Be like water.” Adaptive and fluid.
A salary cap draft can be held back-to-back with the same player pool, managers and budget, with wildly different results. Treat each draft as its own entity and scenario. In home leagues where you happen to know your fellow managers, keep in mind their tendencies and backgrounds.
I’m well aware that my friend Alex will go overboard bidding on rookies every season, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Or that his brother Kevin will save a ton of money in the back half of the draft, attempting to hoard undervalued players and sleeper selections that other managers wanted to snipe for the bare minimum. Having that basic understanding from the outset, I can work around their predispositions and adapt to their approach.
Before I dive into the main points of the article, I’d highly encourage readers to create their own set of dollar values before participating in drafts this season and then compare them to ours on the website. As I referenced earlier, you will have a better understanding of the tendencies of other managers in your home leagues.
If you live around Buffalo and your friend Steve is a die-hard Bills fan who is hellbent on having Josh Allen at the helm every year, adjust. Does your brother-in-law always make it a point to prioritize not having multiple key players on bye each week? Adjust. Perhaps your league uses tight end-premium scoring, where each reception earns additional points? Or “big plays” of over 20 yards get a bonus? Adjust.
To give you my mindset on writing this article and provide a bit of context, my thoughts below only apply to the current recommended dollar totals on FantasyPros as of today’s date. When I compare and contrast values, it is done in the framework of how much Player A will cost versus Player B within the same position. Comparing a $22 quarterback to a $22 receiver is an “apples vs. oranges” scenario that I avoid implicitly.
Worst Auction & Salary Cap Draft Values
Worst Quarterback Value
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI): $14 Estimate
My thoughts on Kyler Murray are pretty simple — if it didn’t happen in 2024, when will it? Last season was the first time Murray was healthy and started each game since 2020, and to boot, he had James Conner behind him for a full 16 games — something Conner had never achieved in his career.
Murray had several adept options in the passing game with Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson, yet he finished as the QB11 overall and the QB12 in fantasy points per game (18.1). His Jekyll and Hyde production swings were infuriating to deal with — he finished as the QB5 or better five times last season, but as the QB15 or worse nine times.
The Cardinals failed to add any significant offensive talent in the offseason, so my expectations for 2025 are tempered. I much prefer Baker Mayfield to Murray, who we have listed at the same price point.
Worst Running Back Value
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ): $28 Estimate
When you click on a player to see their most recent news on our website and you’re greeted with a “Jets coach Aaron Glenn called Breece Hall to let him know that he wants him to be here despite offseason trade rumors” headline, that says enough.
One of 2024’s biggest busts at the running backs position, Hall took a significant step backward in production, experiencing declines in attempts, yards/attempt (Y/A), receptions, targets and total touchdowns — all while fighting off rookies Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis for touches.
To complicate matters further, New York signed Justin Fields to be their new starter under center. Fields has the propensity to take off running at the first given opportunity. I’m concerned about his potential upside in an offense that will be extremely one-dimensional. At this price point, I’d much prefer Kenneth Walker ($26), Chase Brown ($23) or David Montgomery ($22).
Worst Wide Receiver Value
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA): $27 Estimate
Tyreek Hill stuck out like a sore thumb at this cost, despite the total being a far cry from prior seasons. Why am I so bearish on him for 2025? The culmination of several factors, rather than just one.
Hill is an all-or-nothing receiver built on speed who enters his age-31 season. He continues to work his way back from multiple wrist injuries he sustained in 2024, and his fantasy relevance is primarily tied to the ability of Tua Tagovailoa remaining under center all year long.
Hills’ running mate, Jaylen Waddle, enters the season fully healthy and has a more well-rounded skillset, and Tagovailoa also has Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane as alternative options. I haven’t even mentioned Hill’s off-field concerns and attitude issues. At this price range, I’d be happy to spend the extra dollar to acquire Terry McLaurin or Drake London.
Worst Tight End Value
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL): $12 Estimate
Mark Andrews was able to salvage his season in the second half, following an absurdly slow start to the year in 2024. Buoyed by a career-high 11 touchdowns on just 55 total receptions, Andrews became an all-or-nothing option for fantasy managers, clinging to the hope that Baltimore would target him in the end zone before salting the game away with Derrick Henry in the second half.
Entering his age-30 season, I’d expect to see Baltimore continue to phase in Isaiah Likely as the season progresses. I’d rather pocket the $8-$9 additional cost that Andrews has based upon name recognition and pour that into an alternative position instead.
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