Dynasty Do Not Draft List: Quarterbacks to Avoid (Fantasy Football)

Quarterback value in dynasty fantasy football startup drafts has shifted significantly compared to last offseason. Just a year ago, securing two quarterbacks within the first three rounds of Superflex formats felt like a must. This year, that strategy may actually be a mistake. With the depth and value available in the middle rounds, investing early in two quarterbacks can come at the cost of more impactful roster-building opportunities. In today’s article, I’ll break down the quarterbacks I’m actively avoiding at their current ADP in dynasty startup drafts. ADP data for this article is sourced from DynastyDataLab.com, filtered specifically for Superflex, PPR leagues, and compiled from over 700 real Sleeper drafts. Let’s take a look at my biggest quarterback fades this offseason.

• Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
• DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
• Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Quarterbacks to Avoid

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)

Dynasty ADP: 21

It’s easy to forget now, but Justin Herbert was the dynasty QB1 for much of 2021 and 2022. He burst onto the NFL scene, averaging roughly 23 fantasy points per game (FPPG) across his first two seasons. Since then, however, the production has dipped. Over the past three years, Herbert hasn’t cracked 19 FPPG in a single season and has finished outside the Top 12 quarterbacks in points per game in two of those years. His raw passing numbers have declined across the board for multiple reasons. A run-heavy offensive scheme under Head Coach Jim Harbaugh this past season limited his volume. More broadly, the NFL’s defensive meta has shifted. Teams are leaning into nickel packages and deploying lighter, faster personnel to limit the explosive passing game. The result? A much tougher environment for volume-dependent pocket passers like Herbert.

I love Herbert as a real-life quarterback, but I can’t get behind his ADP of 21 in Superflex. I’d prefer to grab an elite wide receiver like Nico Collins or Drake London (going just after Herbert in ADP), then grab someone like Brock Purdy two rounds later, who should project for equal or greater fantasy points than Herbert for the foreseeable future.

C.J. Stroud (QB –  HOU)

Dynasty ADP: 25

Like Herbert, C.J. Stroud put together an outstanding rookie campaign, earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors while averaging 18.7 FPPG. That performance vaulted him to QB2 overall in dynasty ADP heading into the 2024 offseason. In hindsight, that price tag was a bit egregious. While 18.7 FPPG is impressive for a rookie, it’s not league-winning production. Additionally, given Stroud’s complete lack of rushing upside, we should’ve been more skeptical about how much higher his ceiling realistically was.

Unfortunately, Year 2 brought a significant step back. Stroud averaged just 13.7 FPPG while dealing with an injured wide receiver corps and one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. While the situation should improve, and a bounce-back is certainly within reason, it raises a key question: What do you win when you win? If Stroud returns to the 18-19 FPPG range, you’re still looking at low-end QB1 numbers. That kind of production can be had later in drafts with players like Brock Purdy in Round 4, Dak Prescott in Round 6, or even Tua Tagovailoa in Round 8.

To be clear, I’d still take Stroud over those guys straight up, but not when the cost difference means passing on high-impact players like Drake London, Ladd McConkey, or Marvin Harrison Jr. He’s a fine asset, but not one worth paying top-tier QB prices for in startup drafts.

Jordan Love (QB – GB)

Dynasty ADP: 33

After three years of sitting behind Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love finally got his shot in 2023 and made the most of it. He averaged 19.4 fantasy FPPG, buoyed by volume more than efficiency, finishing tied for fifth in the NFL with 579 pass attempts, but in 2024, that volume cratered. Green Bay became one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses, ranking in the bottom three in pass attempts while Josh Jacobs logged over 300 carries.

That shift exposed a significant issue: Love isn’t a runner, and he’s simply not efficient enough to thrive on low volume. His FPPG dropped by over three points, and he finished as a mid-range QB2. While the Packers added Matthew Golden to the mix, this receiving corps remains underwhelming.

Love’s current dynasty startup ADP puts him in the same range as players like Omarion Hampton, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, and A.J. Brown. I’d take any of those skill players over Love without hesitation. In Superflex formats, he’s not someone I’m even considering before pick 50. You’re paying for a profile that lacks both floor and ceiling, and in today’s quarterback landscape, you can do better.

Thanks for checking out my article today! If you have any Dynasty-related questions or need help navigating your startup draft this offseason, feel free to send me a DM on X @jim_DFF.