Fantasy football and sports betting worlds have collided in the past few years. Fantasy football players can use the betting market to help them with their drafts. The over/under total for games helps fantasy players make weekly lineup decisions. Similarly, season-long league leaders can give fantasy players some insight into how Vegas views players for this year.
Let’s look at my dark horse picks to lead the league in passing, rushing, and receiving touchdowns and yards for the 2025 season.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Dark Horse Fantasy Football League Leader Predictions & Picks
Passing Yards – Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)
Unfortunately, Prescott has struggled with injuries the past few years. Yet, the veteran has had at least 4,400 passing yards in each of the past three seasons, where he played at least 16 games, totaling 4,516 in 2023. Prescott finished third in the NFL in passing yards that year, behind Jared Goff (4,575) and Tua Tagovailoa (4,624). More importantly, Dallas might have one of the worst rushing offenses in the league this season. Don’t be surprised if Prescott leads the NFL in passing yards following the addition of George Pickens.
Passing Touchdowns – J.J. McCarthy (QB – MIN)
Minnesota has had one of the top passing offenses in the NFL under Kevin O’Connell, regardless of who plays quarterback. Last year, Sam Darnold finished fifth in the league with a career-high 35 passing touchdowns under O’Connell. While McCarthy didn’t play as a rookie because of a knee injury, every report about the former Michigan star this offseason has been positive. The Vikings have an elite pair of wide receivers and an improved offensive line. Furthermore, T.J. Hockenson should be 100% healthy after coming off a torn ACL last year.
Rushing Yards – Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV)
Despite being a unanimous elite prospect, Jeanty has only the seventh-best odds to lead the NFL in rushing yards on DraftKings. The rookie will be the focal point of the Raiders’ offense with Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly on the sidelines. Geno Smith is a solid quarterback, but not a difference maker. Therefore, don’t be surprised if Carroll uses Jeanty like he did Marshawn Lynch in his prime years. Lynch averaged 319 rushing attempts and 1,446 yards per season over a 17-game pace in his four healthy years in Seattle.
Rushing Touchdowns – Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
Fantasy players love Allen because of his rushing floor, totaling at least six scores every year. Furthermore, he has had 27 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons. Allen was second in 2023 with 15 rushing touchdowns and ninth last year with 12, despite James Cook leading the league with 16. Many expect Cook to regress this season, which could lead to more goal-line work for Allen. More importantly, the Bills lack a go-to red zone weapon, leading to them ranking sixth in red zone rushing rate (54.6%) in 2024.
Receiving Yards – Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
Nacua is one of the more underrated wide receivers in the NFL. He finished fourth in receiving yards as a rookie, totaling 1,486. The former BYU star would have had 1,783 receiving yards over a 17-game pace last year if you remove the two contests in which he played fewer than 36% of the snaps, totaling 75 more than league-leader Ja’Marr Chase (1,708). Nacua should see less coverage from defenses with the addition of Davante Adams. Furthermore, he will play more in the slot with Cooper Kupp off the roster.
Receiving Touchdowns – Nico Collins (WR – HOU)
After spending two years with Davis Mills under center, Collins became a star after the Texans drafted C.J. Stroud. He had three receiving touchdowns in his first two seasons. By comparison, the superstar has 15 receiving touchdowns over the past two years despite missing nine games because of injury. More importantly, Stefon Diggs is gone, making Collins Houston’s unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver. While the Texans’ offense regressed last season, don’t be surprised if Stroud has a bounce-back year under offensive coordinator Nick Caley, leading to Collins scoring double-digit touchdowns.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
