You’re sitting on the clock. You see a run at a position you need. Suddenly, you are one pick away with your favourite player still on the board. You sit there, picturing how this player will be your last infinity stone. Then, he gets selected, gone forever to another team. Or maybe he isn’t gone forever. Welcome to ‘Trading 101’ with your host, Ellis Johnson. Personally, trading is my favourite part of fantasy football. Just like the tango, it takes two to make it happen. In this article, I will outline a few strategies for approaching trading and determining when it’s the right call for your team. Make sure to also utilize our fantasy football trade analyzer tool.
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Fantasy Football Trading 101
To Trade, or Not To Trade, That is the Question
While one of my favourite approaches to fantasy is to get your guys, the easiest answer to this question is to look at your team and see where you are weakest. Hypothetically, let’s say you drafted Jonnu Smith with the hopes he would light it up with Miami, and don’t have a backup plan. Now that he is in Pittsburgh as part of a tight end by committee (yes, it’s as gross as it sounds), it’s time to trade.
The first step is to determine which players you are willing to move. The easiest way to find who that is, is by looking at your team and determining where you are strongest. Let’s say you loaded the receiver position and have an abundance of riches at the position. You can likely afford to trade one away to fill out your team. If you have a couple of decent receivers on your bench, Darnell Mooney and Josh Downs, for example, they are the perfect pieces to move for a tight end (in this hypothetical situation).
In a vacuum, these players were likely both selected before one of the tight ends you’ll be targeting. As a result, you will be losing objective value while gaining a more valuable piece for your team. No matter how good these two players look on your bench, your tight end will be the one scoring you points each week, and that’s more valuable. Now it’s time to determine who to target.
Who to Target
Typically, finding which fantasy team to target is more important than specific players to target. If you look around your league and find there are a few teams that have an abundance of a position you are looking for, they are the ones that will likely be open to trades. Therefore, if the player you want isn’t on one of those teams, you may need to settle for your second option.
I’m going to continue with this hypothetical situation and presume we are looking for a tight end. In most leagues, there will be at least one team that loaded up at the position. Typically, this will be some combination of two middling TE1s. For example, if a team has David Njoku and Jake Ferguson, that’s the perfect team to target.
Unfortunately, you are approaching this deal from a position of need. As a result, you can’t be too picky about who you are targeting. Therefore, unless you strongly believe that both Njoku and Ferguson will have bad years, beggars can’t be choosers.
The Dance
Let’s say you decide you want one of Njoku or Ferguson and are hoping to do a one-for-one swap with Mooney. There are two things you need to figure out. The first: Is the manager interested in Mooney? The second: Which of Njoku or Ferguson would they rather move?
As soon as you message the manager, they will have clued in on the Smith situation and have leverage over you. That’s why you have to approach them with options. Ask them if they are interested in either Mooney or Downs. Even if you’d prefer to move Mooney, offer both. If you only offer one player, they are more likely to turn you down, or have them ask for a player you are not willing to move.
If they get back showing interest, awesome. If not, see if there is another player on your team that they like. If the manager continues to push for a player you do not want to move, find another person to deal with. It’s never worth arguing with another manager when you believe their evaluation is outlandish and are asking too much. The beauty of trading is that it’s not mandatory. Yes, in this case, you are trying to help your team. But there’s no need to mortgage your house just to renovate the bathroom. You can always play the waiver wire and find a weekly play from there.
If they show interest in the deal, but might want to add a piece, congratulations, you have officially entered trade talks. If they want another piece in return, since they drafted two tight ends, maybe they would value Smith also going their way. If that is the case, you will need to consider what holding Smith would do for your team. If you think there is a good chance you’ll drop him by Week 6, then ship him off. The last thing you want is a roster clog. Plus, a two-for-one trade opens the door to add a waiver wire flier.
After these discussions, you discover they want Downs and Smith for Ferguson. Since you have added a piece and are moving the receiver you view to be more valuable, you have now gained some leverage. By adding a player to your side and showing you are able to be fluid, you may be able to ask for Njoku. As a way to harness civil trade negotiations, being able to be fluid in your offers will often lead to your trading partner working around what they are giving up.
My biggest advice while negotiating is to be flexible. As mentioned earlier, you need to be fluid in your evaluations. If you approach a deal with one thing in mind and are not willing to reconsider or find ways to add value, you will not get a deal done. They say trading is like a dance, and you can’t have both sides leading. If you let your trading partner lead the initial dance, you will be more likely to get a deal done. After following their moves, you can then selectively choose to manipulate the deal. In this example, that would be asking for Njoku over Ferguson after they offer Ferguson for Downs and Smith. Since you have displayed your willingness to manipulate your side, they will be more likely to reciprocate the gesture.
If all this goes to plan, you will have a deal complete before you know it.
Timing is Everything… Sometimes
If this isn’t your first rodeo, you may have an appreciation for when player values spike. For example, if you took a late-round flier and they explode in Week 1, you’re in luck. That player will instantly net you substantially more value if you choose to shop them. Unfortunately, that’s the hardest part.
For whatever reason, when you draft a player, you feel a sense of loyalty towards them. That’s when you need to try and be objective and determine if you truly believe that this late-round pick is Puka Nacua or will turn back into a pumpkin. I’ll give you a hint: There are a lot more pumpkins out there than you think. As a result, capitalizing on a great performance will often strengthen your team in the long run.
Similarly, be aware of which statistics are more prone to regression. For example, touchdowns are notoriously difficult to predict. If you have a player (who is not a known fantasy star) who starts the season with a touchdown in each of their first three games, their value will be inflated.
That’s a great time to cash out for another player who may be performing in more consistent statistical categories, yet may not be scoring as well in fantasy. An example would be if you have a receiver who has multiple touchdowns in consecutive games. You can likely move them for another receiver who has had double the targets and more yards over that same stretch. Although they will not have had as many fantasy points, consistent targets are harder to come by and likely to be maintained.
In my opinion, I would rather have a player who is in the top 10 in targets/attempts and yards over the first three weeks than touchdowns. That is solely because targets and yards are a more stable statistic and should eventually lead to touchdowns. Sometimes, you get a Trey McBride from last year, who is allergic to scoring touchdowns, but often, more targets mean more opportunity for touchdowns.
When to Hold ‘Em, When to Fold ‘Em, When to Push ‘Em In
This last piece of advice is directed to seasoned fantasy managers.
Don’t trade scared. Fantasy football is all about creating opinions on players and figuring out who you believe will succeed and who won’t. It’s wild the number of times a trade will seem incredibly lopsided, yet ends up being the reverse months later — just ask any dynasty manager. It sounds obvious, yet it needs to be stated: No one knows the future. Don’t be afraid to lose a trade if you are acquiring a player you have confidence in.
Trading is different in every league, and many managers have their own approaches. The one consistent variable in trading is that people want to “win” trades. Thankfully, how people determine if they win a trade is similar across all leagues. More often than not, their opinion of the trade correlates with consensus rankings such as FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR).
Oftentimes, to get your guy, you will have to overpay. The reason I italicized that is because it’s not an overpay if you get a true difference-maker. Many great fantasy analysts, such as Scott Connor and JJ Zachariason, discuss the idea of value over replacement player (VORP). This concept looks at how valuable a player is compared to an average player’s fantasy production. It’s a complicated topic, but one main conclusion is that receivers ranked in the 20-40 range and quarterbacks in the ~10-18 range are all very similar in production every week.
How this can be applied to trading is to understand who the true difference-makers are. From this, you can move multiple big names for an elite player and a throw-in. These throw-ins can be very valuable if you know which lesser-known names are performing. For example, last year, you could have packaged A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb and brought in anyone, even Ja’Marr Chase.
Chase started the season with two bad games, knowing he was going to bounce back, this would’ve easily been enough to acquire him. Say you turned that into Chase and Rashod Bateman. On a points per game basis, you would have scored more points and acquired the best player in the deal (often an indicator of winning a trade). Despite many trade calculators likely favouring Lamb and Brown, being able to play Chase (paired with another receiver) would have provided an advantage over your opponent each week.
In summary, don’t be afraid to get your guy. If that requires overpaying, just remember that no one knows the future. As long as you don’t view it as an overpay, that’s what matters. Especially when you are receiving a difference-maker at the position.
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