We’re just a couple of short weeks away from NFL football that matters in the standings, so no doubt you’re here looking for the best picks to make in your drafts to get that coveted league championship. Well, what you’re going to get here is some landmines at the wide receiver position that have serious bust potential.
Calling these players a bust can have a ton of factors leading to that designation, whether it’s a matter of the player’s situation, their average draft position (ADP), a team situation or a combination of any of these.
Let’s take a look at several pass-catching options with huge bust potential in fantasy football this season.
We’re just a couple of short weeks away from NFL football that matters in the standings, so no doubt you’re here looking for the best picks to make in your drafts to get that coveted league championship. Well, what you’re going to get here is some landmines at the wide receiver position that have serious bust potential.
Calling these players a bust can have a ton of factors leading to that designation, whether it’s a matter of the player’s situation, their average draft position (ADP), a team situation or a combination of any of these.
Let’s take a look at several pass-catching options with huge bust potential in fantasy football this season.
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts
It feels like Tyreek Hill has been one of the best fantasy wide receivers as long as we can remember, with massive upside that’s unparalleled among the elite fantasy wide receivers. In 2025, Hill enters his 10th season with some serious doubts about his fantasy viability for the first time in his career. Outside of his 2019 campaign, where he missed four games, Hill has been a top-10 fantasy wide receiver every season until 2024.
When looking at some of Hill’s stats and peripheral metrics over the past few seasons, there is a steep drop-off in his targets per game, yards per target, a precipitous decline in yards after the catch (YAC), as well as some of his target-earning metrics like targets per route run (TPRR) and his first season under 2.00 yards per route run (YPRR). Collectively, those are all hard to ignore for a wide receiver over the age of 30.
Hill was hampered by off-the-field issues as well as a training camp wrist ligament injury that may have sapped some of his productivity. He finished last season with fewer than 85 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards and seven touchdowns for the first time since 2019. Add in some more off-the-field distractions with a domestic incident involving Hill and other erratic behavior, and Hill’s week-to-week status is volatile, at best.
It doesn’t feel particularly great to draft Hill right now. He is WR15 in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) and among names like Garrett Wilson and Tee Higgins, plus other rock-solid veterans like Mike Evans and Davante Adams. Is there enough upside right now to draft him?
Remember, we are talking about a 31-year-old wide receiver. Father Time is, famously, undefeated. Hill’s situation may have improved a little from the Jonnu Smith trade, but it’s not enough to paper over the warts Hill has accumulated on his 2025 profile. Add in an oblique strain that Hill is working through, and it seems like drafting him is an ever dicier proposition.
The deck chairs have been shuffling on the Titanic this offseason, and we’re looking squarely at what looks to be the best receiving option for 65-year-old (or thereabouts) Aaron Rodgers in DK Metcalf. Sure, Metcalf has been a solid fantasy receiver through his six seasons in Seattle, but despite that success, it always felt like we should expect more. His six-season average of 118 targets, 73 receptions, 1,054 yards and eight touchdowns is good, but not great.
Metcalf walks into the Pittsburgh saloon doors and is greeted by Arthur Smith and the Steelers’ offense, where the passing game, compared to the rest of the league, is nonexistent. The Steelers passed the ball at the fifth-lowest rate (54%) last season. When they did pass, the quarterbacks passed to the wide receivers at the fourth-lowest distribution (46%). The Steelers also likely retain their low passing volume (499 team attempts; fourth lowest rate in the NFL) this season, so it’s not great from a team perspective.
Pittsburgh also did the super smart (dumb) thing and traded George Pickens to the Dallas Cowboys. Their other outside receiver is either 33-year-old journeyman Robert Woods or second-year receiver Roman Wilson, who played all of five snaps last season. Also not great.
Back to Metcalf. He couldn’t hit a ceiling projection with Russell Wilson, Geno Smith and league-average team pass attempts in Seattle; why would we think that could happen in Pittsburgh? Arthur Smith’s offenses spanning back to his time in Tennessee have finished no better than 20th in total passing attempts.
We have a six-season sample of what an Arthur Smith top pass-catcher looks like:
| Season |
Games |
Top Pass-Catcher |
Targets |
Rec. |
Rec. Yards |
TDs |
PPR Finish |
| 2019 (TEN) |
16 |
A.J. Brown (WR – TEN) |
84 |
52 |
1,051 |
8 |
WR21 |
| 2020 (TEN) |
14 |
A.J. Brown (WR – TEN) |
101 |
70 |
1,075 |
11 |
WR12 |
| 2021 (ATL) |
17 |
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) |
93 |
66 |
770 |
5 |
TE6 (would have finished WR35) |
| 2022 (ATL) |
17 |
Drake London (WR – ATL) |
114 |
72 |
866 |
4 |
WR31 |
| 2023 (ATL) |
16 |
Drake London (WR – ATL) |
106 |
69 |
905 |
2 |
WR37 |
| 2024 (PIT) |
14 |
George Pickens (WR – DAL) |
100 |
59 |
900 |
3 |
WR42 |
Metcalf is the WR21 in ECR, and you’re telling me he’s going off in drafts in the same range as elite quarterbacks, George Kittle and other receivers in healthier offenses like Courtland Sutton, DeVonta Smith, Tetairoa McMillan and Zay Flowers? That’s a ridiculous price to pay for a tippy-top ceiling of 2020 A.J. Brown. I don’t have much faith in Smith’s offense in Pittsburgh providing any more upside to a top receiver than what we’ve seen in the last six seasons. I have Metcalf ranked at WR41, and even that might be too high.
Jayden Reed had a solid beginning to last season with two touchdowns in Week 1 to finish as the overall WR1, and then a Week 4 outing against the Vikings, where he put up a 7-139-1 line. Big things seemed to be in store for Reed and the Packers, right?
Yeah… about that…
Quarterback Jordan Love was banged up for much of the early part of 2024, and after the Packers’ Week 10 bye, the offensive philosophy for Green Bay shifted to a run-oriented offense. So much so that the passing game was entirely touchdown dependent. While Josh Jacobs was rushing for 12 touchdowns in the final eight games of the season, Packers wide receivers and tight ends were fighting for time on the field and the crumbs left behind.
In most systems, Reed should be a burgeoning star. In this case, it’s the system that holds Reed back from that. He’s been efficient with two straight seasons of 2.00+ yards per route run, and he even has rushing upside, as he’s averaged 140 yards on the ground in both seasons.
Last season saw Reed put up over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. But 75 targets in 17 games won’t do it. Averaging just 4.4 targets per game definitely won’t do it. Not playing in 2-WR sets also won’t do it, as Reed primarily plays in the slot and 11 personnel.
Last season, there was no Packers wide receiver you could comfortably start in the second half of the season, and that’s how it’s looking for the start of the 2025 season. Not to mention, it seems like everybody (including Reed) has been hurt during training camp and in the preseason.
Reed at WR48 represents the public sentiment that the Packers’ passing game just won’t be fruitful for fantasy managers. Add first-round pick Matthew Golden to the mix, and that just adds even more questions to who can be viable for fantasy. Can anybody be?
With so many mouths to feed in the Packers’ offense this season and how devoted to the run Green Bay was last season, Reed is a tough player to draft. You’re hoping the Packers shift their entire offensive identity in a single season’s time, and that likely isn’t happening, nor is it realistic.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Kevin Tompkins is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Kevin, check out his profile and follow him on Bluesky @ktompkinsii.bsky.social
