FantasyPros Staff | Sun, Aug 3rd 2025, 3:53am EDT

3 First-Round Draft Picks to Avoid (2025 Fantasy Football)

Let’s dive into our approach for the fantasy football 1.12 pick for upcoming drafts, perhaps the most fun pick of them all this year. We look into the players to avoid and a mock draft from the final pick to help you prepare for your fantasy football draft.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: First-Round Picks to Avoid

AJ Brown (WR – PHI)

It was a strange 2024 season for AJ Brown with him having the second-highest target share among wide receivers (31.1%) and the fifth-most receiving yards per game (83.0) and yet it translated to WR16 in total PPR points. Even on a per game basis, this only jumped to WR13. Brown’s 7.5 targets per game ranked 23rd among receivers, which highlights the uphill battle he had to relevancy while Saquon Barkley had a season for the history books. Perhaps if Barkley regresses this year, or if the Eagles trend differently under new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo then Brown can move back into the top tier of receivers, but right now this is too costly for a player with question marks.

Ladd McConkey (WR – LAC)

Let’s be clear, Ladd McConkey had an excellent rookie season, culminating in a dominant performance in the playoffs with 9/197/1 against the Texans. However, there are reasons to be skeptical that he could live up to his current ADP, which is edging towards Round 1. Last year, the Chargers’ run game wasn’t effective, despite JK Dobbins‘ best efforts, and the Chargers elected to clean house and move on from both Dobbins and Gus Edwards, while seemingly sending Sione Vaki to the shadow realm. Najee Harris was signed in free agency and then Omarion Hampton was added in the draft. Both represent significant upgrades and should allow long-time ground-game lover, Greg Roman, to play to his strengths more. If that generates a more efficient offense, then the need for passing could drop slightly and that can always be a concern for receivers, like McConkey, who depend on volume. McConkey is an okay pick in the second round, but drafting him here would be a mistake.

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

It could be tempting to start dual-RB out of the 12 spot, but forcing Josh Jacobs into that pick if our other selections are gone would be a bad idea. Let’s not ignore that Jacobs had a great 2024 but the Packers were dead last in situational neutral pass rate and forced the ball to Jacobs with the third-highest run rate as Jordan Love struggled from injuries and performance regression. The Packers were also struggling with a wide receiver room that dropped too many passes and struggled for health and consistency. In 2025 that could be different with the addition of Matthew Golden who continues to earn rave reviews in training camp. Jacobs has also struggled to be consistent year over year in his career, with every year where he’s had over 270 touches followed by one where his yards per game regressed as well as his touchdowns. Obviously it’s easier to pick up more yards and more touchdowns when you get more touches, but deeper into the stats we find Jacobs yards after contact per attempt typically dropped in those years too, pointing to Jacobs generally lacking in the year after heavy workloads. Jacobs is a fine mid to late second round pick, but let’s not pull him too far above ADP for the sake of having a running back.

Roster Construction from 1.12

The 1.12 opens up a lot of roster construction possibilities and might just be the best place to pick on the board, but it will largely come down to how you start your draft for how you want to proceed. The good news is that the back half of drafts this year is so strong, you’re almost guaranteed two really good players. If you take Brian Thomas Jr, then you can still get a running back with immense upside, such as De’Von Achane. It’s possible Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen may be gone before your third and fourth round picks, but Jayden Daniels could potentially be available and there are still later round gems like Justin Fields and Drake Maye who possess dual-threat abilities. Wide receivers in the third and fourth rounds tend to be a little more questionable, though, so securing at least one here feels like the right move. Double-tapping the wide receiver position and then considering a double-tap of running backs in your next selections feels like plenty of fun.

Fantasy Football Mock Draft From the 1.12 Pick

We used our FREE fantasy football mock draft simulator to show you an example of a draft from the 1.12 position. You can sync your league for free and mock draft against your fantasy football league settings to prepare more specifically for your draft. Here’s how our fantasy football mock draft from the 1.12 position turned out.

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