When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players I’m avoiding at their current draft cost.
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Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Players to Avoid
Let’s dive into the players I’m avoiding at ADP.
Last year was the first time D.K. Metcalf hasn’t finished as a top 24 wide receiver in fantasy points per game (WR30). Metcalf dealt with shoulder and knee injuries last year, which could also be contributing to his fall off. His per-route metrics don’t paint a rosier picture, as he was 78th in separation, 89th in route win rate, and 64th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Yes, he did rank 36th in target share, 35th in yards per route run, and 20th in receiving yards per game, so it’s not all doom and gloom surrounding Metcalf. There are reasons to believe in a bounceback here. He’ll be the unquestioned top option in the Pittsburgh passing attack, which should help his weekly volume floor and ceiling. Aaron Rodgers isn’t returning to his former glory, but if he can be serviceable, Metcalf should pay off as a volume-fueled WR2/3.
Father Time remains undefeated. Tyreek Hill could see his efficiency dip again this season another year older. Last year, with Tua Tagovailoa under center (Weeks 8-16), Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game while ranking 36th in yards per route run, 34th in target share, and 33rd in receiving yards per game. Overall, last year, he was 28th in separation and 48th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). None of this screams, “Hill is a top 15-20 wide receiver this season & a must-draft player.” Hill could return WR2 value in 2025 if he can hold off Father Time and rebound from the wrist injury that plagued him last season. If Hill dips in drafts, I’ll get exposure to him, but he’s not a player I’m prioritizing in drafts.
Deebo Samuel had a tough 2024 season, during which he dealt with numerous injuries. Last year alone, he dealt with a calf strain, pneumonia, a hamstring strain, and rib issues. Samuel has accumulated a lengthy medical record throughout the years. The injury risk remains entering 2025, with Samuel being a year older and his playing style as a bruising, tackle-breaking underneath threat continuing. The 49ers dealt Samuel to Washington this offseason as the Commanders were searching for weapons to add to the fold for Jayden Daniels. If we can get past Samuel’s question marks on paper, it’s a nice marriage. Last year, Washington ranked sixth in screen passes (per Fantasy Points Data). This should be Samuel’s role to grab in 2025 as Washington’s WR2. Last year, Samuel was the WR46 in fantasy points per game while ranking 47th in target share (17.2%) and receiving yards per game (44.7), 53rd in yards per route run (1.69), and 63rd in first downs per route run. He logged the lowest yards after catch per reception of his career last season. All of the per-route metrics for Samuel are trending in the wrong direction. This isn’t a player that I’ll be drafting much at cost in 2025, but if he slips far enough in a draft, then I’ll possibly hit the draft button. Samuel is a WR4 with more appeal in PPR formats.
Keon Coleman had a disappointing rookie season in which he missed four games with a wrist injury. He finished as the WR55 in fantasy points per game, operating as Buffalo’s man coverage option and deep threat (sixth-highest aDOT, 15.3). He ranked outside the top 40 wide receivers in target share (14.4%, 59th), yards per route run (1.87, 41st), first-read share (19.9%, 50th), and first downs per route run (59th, 0.074). Coleman had a 27% target per route run rate (TPRR) versus man coverage while only a 14% TPRR versus zone coverage. Among 71 qualifying receivers, he ranked 37th in separation and 44th in route win rate against man coverage, which isn’t horrible numbers, but the addition of Joshua Palmer this offseason could push him out of this role. Palmer, in the same set of receivers, ranked fifth in separation and route win rate against man coverage. Coleman could lose this role to Palmer. He wasn’t good enough against zone coverage to expect him to be fed in that realm, though. Among 128 qualifying receivers versus zone, Coleman ranked 125th in separation and 88th in route win rate. Coleman is a WR4/5 that I’m happily fading in 2025.
Jayden Reed was a fantasy darling entering the 2024 season after posting a WR26 in fantasy points per game season and ten total touchdowns. His stock came crashing down last year (WR38) as Green Bay continued their stubborn usage of a wide receiver room by committee, and the passing volume dried up. Among 85 qualifying receivers (per Fantasy Points Data), Reed ranked 15th in yards per route run, but he was outside the top 40 receivers in target share (52nd, 15.7%), receiving yards per game (41st, 50.4), first-read share (49th, 19.9%), and first downs per route run (51st, 0.080). Unless you’re a hyper-efficient receiver, like Reed was in 2023, it’s difficult to produce when you’re only running a route on 69.3% of dropbacks (64th). Reed is a WR4 who could revisit WR3 production in 2025 if he runs hot again with efficiency and touchdowns.
Cedric Tillman made some noise last year before he was forced to miss the rest of the season recovering from a concussion. In Weeks 7-12, Tillman was the WR12 in fantasy points per game with a 19.7% target share, 66.0 receiving yards per game, and a 23.3% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). Tillman looks like fool’s gold, though, when we look at his deeper metrics during that stretch and for the entire season. In those five games, Tillman only had 1.71 yards per route run and 0.078 first downs per route run. Those aren’t amazing per-route numbers. Tillman’s counting stats were inflated some by Cleveland’s play volume during this five-game stint, as they ranked third in passing attempts and second in passing rate. Another hit to Tillman’s resume is that overall, he also ranked 82nd in separation and 90th in route win rate last season (112 qualifying receivers). He’s a late-round receiver that I’ll be avoiding this season.
DeAndre Hopkins, at this stage of his career, offers more real-life veteran/locker-room appeal than fantasy production. Last year, he was a part-time player for both Tennessee and Kansas City, never eclipsing a 65% route share in any week. In ten games, he had less than a 55% route share, so we have to evaluate what he did from a per-route basis only instead of the raw counting or market share metrics. Among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 52nd in separation and 36th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Among that same sample, he was 47th in yards per route run and 32nd in target per route run rate. He’ll have some random spike weeks because of the potency of Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense, but they’ll likely be tough to predict and not consistent enough to make him anything more than a headache flex option.
Last year, Alec Pierce was the WR48 in fantasy points per game, operating as Indy’s field stretcher. If Anthony Richardson wins the job, maybe he will have some flex-viable weeks in 2025 in deeper leagues, but he’s off my draft board if Daniel Jones is the team’s starter. Last year, Pierce led 85 qualifying receivers in aDOT (22.2). His role won’t be heavily utilized if Jones is starting. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Jones had the 14th-lowest aDOT and the ninth-lowest deep throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Pierce could luck box into some spike weeks for best ball, but it won’t be often enough to make him a redraft-worthy managed lineup pick.
Many will look at Marvin Mims’ production down the stretch last year and think, “Oh, my! He broke out. I need to draft him in 2025.” The problem with his production during those games is it was fraudulent and not likely to be reproduced. In Weeks 11-18, Mims was the WR23 in fantasy points per game on the strength of six touchdowns (seven games). In those games, he had only a 34.6% route share, a 12.8% target share, a 4.3 aDOT, and a 17.4% first-read share. 58.1% of his targets were designed, and 58% of his target volume was via screens (per Fantasy Points Data). None of this is sustainable long-term, and last year’s scorching hot finish to the season was more of a fluke. Avoid Mims in the later rounds of drafts. Pat Bryant could easily earn a full-time starting role this season opposite Courtland Sutton and crush Mims route share.
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