As you prepare for your 2025 fantasy football drafts—whether it’s redraft, best ball, or dynasty—it’s just as important to know who not to draft as it is to know who to target. Every year, recognizable names with elite talent get overdrafted due to name value, past production, or misleading hype. So let’s break down players to avoid based on current fantasy football ADP trends, red flags, overall team context, and additional risk indicators heading into the 2025 NFL season.
Here’s a list of 10 players to avoid and add to your do no draft list for 2025 fantasy football. And be sure to check out the latest:
As you prepare for your 2025 fantasy football drafts—whether it’s redraft, best ball, or dynasty—it’s just as important to know who not to draft as it is to know who to target. Every year, recognizable names with elite talent get overdrafted due to name value, past production, or misleading hype. So let’s break down players to avoid based on current fantasy football ADP trends, red flags, overall team context, and additional risk indicators heading into the 2025 NFL season.
Here’s a list of 10 players to avoid and add to your do no draft list for 2025 fantasy football. And be sure to check out the latest:
2025 Fantasy Football Do Not Draft List
Patrick Mahomes is a superstar and already likely a Hall of Fame quarterback, but he’s been overrated in fantasy the last few years. I fell into the trap last season. The reality is he finished as the fantasy QB8 two years ago and the QB11 last season.
Travis Kelce is no longer the player he once was, and although Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy have had moments, neither offers the stability that makes me feel good about drafting Mahomes at his current average draft position (ADP).
Mahomes may indeed finish in the top 10 this season at his position, but so could Justin Herbert, Justin Fields or Drake Maye. None of whom cost near the draft capital that Mahomes does. Therefore, I’m out until the Chiefs bring Mahomes his Randy Moss the way the Patriots did for Tom Brady years ago to reinvigorate his fantasy value.
Before you lose your mind, let me present to you the facts.
Last season, Saquon Barkley had 436 carries (including the postseason). Here’s a list of recent (since 2000) 400+ carry seasons by a running back and their performance the following season:
| Running Back |
Age |
400+ Carry Season |
Carries |
Fantasy Finish |
Fantasy Finish (Next Season) |
| DeMarco Murray |
26 |
2014 |
436 |
RB2 |
RB15 |
| Eddie George |
27 |
2000 |
431 |
RB3 |
RB21 |
| Shaun Alexander |
28 |
2005 |
430 |
RB1 |
RB30 |
| Larry Johnson |
27 |
2006 |
429 |
RB3 |
RB40 |
| Jamal Lewis |
21 |
2000 |
412 |
RB15 |
Did Not Play |
| Corey Dillon |
30 |
2004 |
410 |
RB7 |
RB18 |
| Edgerrin James |
22 |
2000 |
408 |
RB2 |
RB33 |
| Curtis Martin |
31 |
2004 |
408 |
RB4 |
RB29 |
| Arian Foster |
27 |
2012 |
405 |
RB3 |
RB45 |
| Ahman Green |
26 |
2003 |
403 |
RB3 |
RB15 |
| Jamal Lewis |
24 |
2003 |
401 |
RB4 |
RB26 |
The defense rests.
At 28 years old, a bad offensive line and a crowded backfield that just added Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon is a pass for me. Mixon was solid last season, no doubt, but he does have a spotty track record when it comes to health, and the recent rookie draft class is very talented, not to mention cheaper than Mixon.
Mixon is the first of the “dead zone” running backs this year, where I prefer to pivot towards the cheaper rookies and not miss out on crucial wide receiver depth in that ADP range.
Another “dead zone” running back, the 30-year-old Aaron Jones, has a lot of tread on the tires, and Jordan Mason is now behind him on the depth chart. Mason is a real threat after his strong 2024 performance, stepping in for Christian McCaffrey and performing quite well most of the season before an ankle injury ended his season prematurely.
Jones is just way too expensive considering the running back depth available this season. I’d much rather take Mason at RB40 than Jones at RB22, playing the long game with my roster construction.
The Chiefs’ backfield is kind of a mess. In theory, Isiah Pacheco should be the lead guy, but the fact that Kareem Hunt lingers on this depth chart is troubling. He could steal goal-line work, not to mention the many goal-line gadget plays this offense loves to run, robbing Pacheco of scoring chances.
Pacheco scored one touchdown in the seven games he played last season and topped 15 carries just once. They also signed Elijah Mitchell and drafted Brashard Smith, so there are plenty of options to turn to should Pacheo struggle or find himself hurt yet again. There are too many variables for me at his current cost.
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I’m firmly in the camp that the new regime wants TreVeyon Henderson to take over this backfield completely by mid-season, leaving Rhamondre Stevenson in the dust. The Patriots take just a $3 million cap hit if they cut Stevenson after this season, and I guess that they will.
Stevenson’s PPR ceiling is capped already by Henderson and, to a certain extent, by Drake Maye’s rushing ability as well. I just look at Stevenson as a bad investment, barring an injury to Henderson. When a new regime shows its hand in the draft, it’s typically wise to believe them.
Sure, Aaron Rodgers loves to dial in on one target, and DK Metcalf may be the only target worthy of that distinction. However, Arthur Smith is still running this lackluster offense the last time I checked and their “run first” mentality isn’t going anywhere.
Chasing Rodgers’ 2024 QB18 mark in fantasy points per game is a terrible idea, as he’s another year older and arguably playing in front of a more questionable offensive line. Metcalf is far from undraftable, but I think there are some more intriguing options in that same range at the position with better quarterback play and fantasy-friendly schemes.
The Saints are set up to be one of the worst teams in the league with Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough under center. Yikes. Chris Olave has also had multiple concussions over recent seasons, making him a risky selection.
When you add the physical risk to the awful offensive ecosystem, it’s a recipe for disaster. Hard pass, barring an extreme fantasy football ADP discount.
Coming off a major knee surgery, Brandon Aiyuk may be slow to start the season, and every week counts in fantasy football. He also has plenty of competition for targets if Christian McCaffrey is healthy again — George Kittle, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall.
That potentially leaves Aiyuk in no man’s land. His weekly floor feels too low, and the ceiling could be lower as well, based on his questionable explosiveness returning from major surgery. Usually, I want at least a steady floor or an explosive upside. If someone can’t give me either, then what’s the point in drafting them?
The 35-year-old Travis Kelce is not who he once was. The offense has been moving away from him, specifically in the red zone, where his touchdown equity has fallen off a cliff to just three last season (five the year before).
In full PPR leagues, Kelce is still a decent mid-level TE1, but I prefer to look for more upside later in the draft or even take two fringe TE1 players and play weekly matchups, hoping one emerges over time as a viable weekly starter at some point.
Kelce has had a brilliant career, but I fear his name recognition will artificially inflate his value in drafts again this season, especially in more casual league settings.
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