For some of us, it’s been fantasy football draft season for months. But right now, as late August rapidly creeps toward September and Week 1, it is truly peak fantasy draft season. That means we have far more average draft position (ADP) data to play with, even from more casual sites.
With this in mind, I’m comparing National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) ADP to consensus PPR ADP. When looking for overvalued players by this metric, I noticed high-stakes drafters on NFFC tended to agree with expert consensus rankings (ECR) more than consensus ADP. If that trend continues, not all of these “values” may be as juicy as they seem. But this is still an exercise worth doing to see which players are being drafted later in NFFC contests, so let’s get right into it.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Best Fantasy Football Draft Values: NFFC Leagues
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR) | NFFC ADP: 15.3/Consensus ADP: 9
This is a screaming value, but it’s probably not going to last. To get the most up-to-date ADP, I limited my sample of NFFC drafts to those that took place over the last week. For most of that time, there was real concern about Matthew Stafford‘s mysterious back injury, which likely pushed down Nacua’s ADP. But Stafford is officially back to practice as a full participant.
There’s a chance Stafford’s refusal to clarify whether he still feels discomfort will keep Nacua’s ADP lowered. But Stafford has had back problems for probably a decade at this point; if he’s practicing, I’m willing to simply assume he will play. That means any adjustment you made to your ranking for Nacua based on Stafford’s back issue should now be reverted.
Nacua’s consensus ADP, which likely reflects his pre-Stafford-injury prices, has him as a solid first-rounder and the fifth receiver off the board. That seems like a fair price for a player who led qualified receivers in yards per route run by over 17% last season. If you really can get him as the WR9 a few picks into the second round on NFFC, do it.
Austin Ekeler (RB – WSH) | NFFC ADP: 159.1/Consensus ADP: 130
Keeping in mind the temporal difference between these two samples, I would have expected Austin Ekeler’s ADP to be elevated on NFFC. After all, the Commanders have made it clear within the last week that they plan to move on from Brian Robinson Jr., with whom Ekeler split Washington’s backfield with last year. Yes, the 30-year-old veteran isn’t likely to claim all or even the majority of Robinson’s early-down role. But his role is likely to grow if Robinson departs, at least slightly. Still, even with more up-to-date news on Robinson, NFFC drafters are letting Ekeler fall nearly 30 picks farther than the general market.
Even putting the Robinson drama aside, Ekeler has a valuable role as a pass-catching back in Washington’s offense. He finished 2024 ranked as the RB29 in PPR points per game. His consensus ADP of RB41 is already well below that; his NFFC ADP of RB52 is even further.
Of course, we shouldn’t draft players exactly where they finished the previous season… especially not 30-year-old running backs. As long as we’re sticking with the assumption that his role isn’t going to expand, Ekeler’s upside is capped. And low-upside players are far less valuable late in drafts. But, especially in deep formats like NFFC, they still have value. Scooping up Ekeler as your fifth running back in the 14th round of a PPR draft is a no-brainer.
Mid-Range TE1s
No matter what ADP, rankings or projections you are looking at, there is a clear big three of fantasy tight ends this season: Brock Bowers, Trey McBride and George Kittle. After those three players are off the board, things get murkier. Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson and Travis Kelce are generally the next three names in consideration, but players like Mark Andrews, David Njoku, Tyler Warren and even Evan Engram may appear depending on your format and platform.
In terms of positional ADP, NFFC drafters agree with the general market in this tier: LaPorta, Hockenson, Kelce and Andrews are the TE4-TE7, in that order. However, all four of these players are much cheaper on NFFC than on other sites. This gap is relatively consistent, with all four being drafted between 19 and 23 picks after their consensus ADPs. Engram and Njoku can also be considered members of this trend, as their ADPS are 16 and 23 picks behind consensus, respectively.
The one exception is Warren, who is the 94th overall player in consensus ADP and only barely lower at 95.6 in NFFC ADP. But NFFC drafters like Warren, in particular. He is the TE8 in NFFC ADP compared to the TE10 in consensus ADP. If we compare his ADP to that of the consensus TE8 (Engram), we again find a solid 14-pick gap.
Given that all these mid-range tight ends are cheaper in NFFC drafts, how should your draft strategy change? The obvious answer is simple: Pass on the elite tight ends in favor of selecting your favorite player from this group at a bargain. On the other hand, maybe NFFC drafters have a point. If all these tight ends are vaguely interchangeable, why should we be pushing them up into the mid rounds, where quality wide receivers and running backs are still available?
The real question is how you value this tier of tight ends relative to the borderline-TE1s below them (who are also lower on NFFC, but not to the same extent) and especially the elite trio above them. If you think these tight ends are closer to the borderline-TE1s than the big three, these NFFC prices probably feel right to you. But if you agree with the market that there is a middle class of solid but not elite TE1s, slam this group in your NFFC drafts.
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