Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate starts at 6:40 p.m. ET at DraftKings and FanDuel and has five games. The suggested pick ’em choices from Underdog are also from the five-game slate.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet 
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Tarik Skubal is having a superb follow-up campaign to his American League Cy Young Award-winning 2024. He’s also in good form. According to FanGraphs, Skubal has had the following stats in his previous four starts spanning 24.1 innings.
- 2.96 ERA
- 2.36 xFIP
- 2.41 SIERA
- 1.03 WHIP
- One win
- Three quality starts
- 5.3 BB%
- 35.8 K%
- 16.1 SwStr%
- 30.9 CSW%
- 127 stuff+
- 105 location+
- 129 pitching+
Skubal has a decent matchup and outstanding betting info tonight. The Twins are tied for 15th in wRC+ (92) with a 23.8 K% versus lefties and tied for 16th in wRC+ (103) with a 20.9 K% at home in 2025. Minnesota was also 17th in wRC+ (99) with a 21.9 K% in the previous 30 days. Thus, the Tigers are listed as commanding -210 favorites, and the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs. Skubal has the highest ceiling on tonight’s slate, but because there’s rain in the forecast and some delay or postponement risk, he’s best utilized in GPPs.
As hot as Skubal has been, Edward Cabrera has been hotter in some measures. In the righty’s last four starts spanning 25.1 innings, he’s had the following stats.
- 1.40 ERA
- 2.80 xFIP
- 2.83 SIERA
- 0.70 WHIP
- Three wins
- Three quality starts
- 5.2 BB%
- 29.2 K%
- 15.4 SwStr%
- 32.3 CSW%
- 111 stuff+
- 107 location+
- 112 pitching+
Cabrera should stay hot in a sweet matchup. The Guardians are tied for 25th in wRC+ (93) with a 21.5 K% versus righties and 20th in wRC+ (95) with a 22.6 K% at home this year. Sadly, because a potent offense doesn’t back Cabrera, the Marlins are slight underdogs (+105). Nevertheless, the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.
Jesus Luzardo has an outstanding matchup and equally appealing betting info. The Nationals are 20th in wRC+ (87) with a 23.7 K% versus lefties and 25th in wRC+ (91) with a 20.4 K% this season. Washington was also 25th in wRC+ (90) with a 24.1 K% in the previous 30 days. So, the Phillies are -210 favorites, and the game’s total is 8.5 runs, which isn’t too alarming since Philadelphia is a sizable favorite.
Luzardo’s 4.40 ERA in his past five games spanning 28.2 innings doesn’t inspire much confidence in him. Yet, his 3.55 xFIP, 3.75 SIERA, 1.12 WHIP and 24.8 K% were more DFS-friendly. The lefty has also pitched adequately on the road, tallying a 3.79 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, 9.4 BB% and 23.3 K% in 95 innings on the road since last season.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Frankly, the next featured stack is the most appealing on tonight’s slate, but their salaries are challenging to work around Skubal. The Mets have a massive ceiling and more affordable salaries than the upcoming stacking suggestion. Bryce Elder has a putrid 7.97 ERA, 5.48 xFIP, 5.67 SIERA and 1.77 WHIP in his previous four starts. He’s also yielded a .349 wOBA to 200 left-handed batters and .379 wOBA to 252 right-handed batters this season, making New York’s entire lineup stackable.
- Road (Coors Field)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 12.0 Runs/ARI -180
Stacking near the middle and bottom of Arizona’s lineup is possible around Skubal, and mini-stacking or hooking a couple players near each other in the lineup is enticing in all game types tonight. However, it’s much easier to stack around the underpriced Cabrera on FanDuel and the pairing of Luzardo and Cabrera on DraftKings. Bradley Blalock has amassed a 7.89 ERA, 5.79 xERA, 5.15 xFIP, 5.31 SIERA and 1.71 WHIP in 10 appearances (eight starts) this season. Blalock also has a 10.09 ERA, 6.14 xFIP and 2.11 WHIP in 30.1 innings at home since reaching the Majors last year. The Diamondbacks should light up the scoreboard tonight.
Core Studs
- Geraldo Perdomo is on fire, swatting three homers with 16 runs, 14 RBIs, six stolen bases, a .452 OBP, .191 ISO, .435 wBOA and 183 wRC+ in his previous 105 plate appearances.
- Ketel Marte has recorded a .369 OBP, .237 ISO, .375 wOBA and 139 wRC+ against righties since 2023.
- Tyler Locklear hasn’t enjoyed smooth sailing in the Majors. Still, he hit 19 dingers with 18 stolen bases, a .401 OBP, .225 ISO, .411 wOBA and 136 wRC+ in 434 plate appearances in Triple-A this year and has untapped potential he can tap into at hitter-friendly Coors Field in a dreamy matchup tonight.
Value Plays/Punts
- Starling Marte has hit his way into New York’s lineup against righties by amassing four homers, a .372 OBP, .171 ISO, .364 wOBA and 139 wRC+ in 130 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season.
- Drake Baldwin has launched 10 long-balls with a .346 OBP, .183 ISO, .353 wOBA and 127 wRC+ in 240 plate appearances against righties as a rookie.
- Kyle Karros has a .417 OBP, .143 ISO, .391 wOBA, .309 xwOBA and 140 wRC+ in his first 24 plate appearances in the Majors after tallying a .398 OBP, .175 ISO, .396 wOBA and 143 wRC+ in the minors this year. Brett Baty is a punt-priced pivot from Karros at FanDuel, where Karros has a large salary.
Thursday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Pete Alonso (1B – NYM): 8.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Pete Alonso is putting together a career year at the plate. In 519 plate appearances this year, he’s belted 28 bombs with 63 runs, 98 RBIs, one stolen base, a .356 OBP, .258 ISO, .375 wOBA, .414 xwOBA and 147 wRC+. Additionally, per Baseball Savant, Alonso has hit one single, one double and a homer with a .541 wOBA and .656 xwOBA in nine career plate appearances against Elder.
Geraldo Perdomo (SS – ARI): 9.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Perdomo is having a breakout season. He has hit 13 homers with 69 runs, 79 RBIs, 19 stolen bases, a .386 OBP, .157 ISO, .363 wOBA, .354 xwOBA and 133 wRC+ in 532 plate appearances.
Ketel Marte (2B, DH – ARI): 11.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Marte is a wrecking ball in a career-best season after a career year in 2024. He’s hit 23 homers with 66 runs, 54 RBIs, three stolen bases, a .398 OBP, .261 ISO, .406 wOBA, .415 xwOBA and 162 wRC+ in 387 plate appearances.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
