I had a blast writing the weekly fantasy football bold predictions last season, and I’m reprising my role this year. However, I’ve slightly tweaked the format to feature bold predictions of varying degrees of heat. The first will be a medium-heat prediction, followed by a hot one and concluded with an atomic-heat prediction.
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Week 1 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
Two Rookie Wideouts Finish Inside the Top-15 at the Position in Half-PPR
The 2024 NFL Draft wide receiver class was considered an outstanding one by most draft analysts, and that was reflected in three going in the top nine picks and four more landing in the first round, saying nothing of wideouts going at the 33rd, 34th and 37th picks. This year’s wide receiver class didn’t receive as much hype, but the outlook and layouts for a few are fantastic in Week 1.
Nevertheless, Tetairoa McMillan (tied for WR24) and Emeka Egbuka (tied for WR26) are the highest projected finishers at the position in half-PPR formats this week, and no one else cracks the top 40. McMillan squares off with the Jaguars in Week 1, and Egbuka draws the Falcons. Last year, Jacksonville permitted the eighth-most half-PPR points per game (29.8) to wide receivers, and Atlanta coughed up the fifth-most half-PPR points per game (30.5). McMillan and Egbuka should be busy in potential shootouts.
However, Matthew Golden is another candidate to earn targets at a high rate in a plus matchup. Jayden Reed was a limited practice participant on Thursday after sitting out of practice on Wednesday. He’s attempting to play through a Jones fracture in his foot. Golden was already a candidate to top Green Bay’s pass-catching weapons in targets right out of the gate, but an ineffective Reed would reduce Golden’s target competition. Moreover, the Lions allowed the second-most half-PPR points per game to wide receivers last season.
Two-way prospect Travis Hunter also has a sweet matchup. Carolina’s run defense was so inept in 2024 that teams rarely needed to throw the ball. However, they had success when they did. According to SumerSports, the Panthers allowed the second-most expected points added (EPA) per pass last season.
Could another rookie wide receiver explode in Week 1 and help hit this hot take? Maybe. McMillan, Egbuka, Golden and Hunter are the most likely rookie wide receivers to finish in the top 15 at the position in scoring this week. I won’t complain about having backdoor opportunities to get this bold prediction correct.
Hot
J.J. McCarthy Has 250+ Passing Yards & Two Touchdowns
Expectations for J.J. McCarthy and how Kevin O’Connell will call Minnesota’s offense are all over the place. Many pundits expect O’Connell to handle McCarthy with kid gloves initially. McCarthy benefited from Michigan’s excellent running attack in his collegiate career. Week 1 will be his first start after missing his entire rookie season after undergoing surgery for a torn meniscus in his knee, which he suffered in the 2024 preseason.
O’Connell’s play-calling history suggests he’ll call a pass-happy offense. According to SumerSports, the Vikings were third in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in 2024 with Sam Darnold and sixth in 2023 with a collection of Kirk Cousins (eight starts), Nick Mullens (three starts in five appearances), Joshua Dobbs (four starts in five appearances) and Jaren Hall (two starts in three appearances). O’Connell didn’t mollycoddle the unexciting trio of Mullens, Dobbs and Hall, and Minnesota’s passing attack features Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Adam Thielen and others. McCarthy has access to high-caliber weapons.
Still, McCarthy didn’t pile up massive passing numbers in college. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), McCarthy surpassed 250 passing yards in three out of 13 starts in 2022 and four out of 15 in 2023. Meanwhile, according to StatHead, only six opponents passed for more than 250 yards against the Bears in 2024. For those who clicked the link to StatHead and are confused by my statement that six opponents passed for more than 250 yards against Chicago in 2024, please note that the table displays net yards. Thus, if you include Houston’s 25 sack yards with their 235 passing yards, they cleared the 250-yard threshold. Moreover, only three of those teams also passed for two touchdowns.
The combination of O’Connell and Minnesota’s weapons led to a career year from Darnold. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Darnold averaged 254.1 passing yards per game with 35 passing touchdowns in 17 games last season. Mullens and Dobbins also combined to eclipse 250 passing yards in four contests in 2023. I expect O’Connell to get the most out of his hand-picked franchise quarterback, starting with 250+ passing yards and multiple touchdowns, which could come on the ground or through the air, since McCarthy has mobility, in his first NFL start.
Atomic
James Conner Will Be the RB1 in All Scoring Formats
James Conner had a fantastic 2024 campaign. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 54 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts in 2024, Conner was 11th in rushing yards per game (68.4), tied for 15th in yards per carry (4.64), tied for sixth in explosive run rate (6.8%), was seventh in team rush rate inside the 5-yard line (75%), was second in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.29) and 16th in expected half-PPR points per game (14.6). In addition to being a superb runner last year, Conner also had 0.22 targets per route run, 47 receptions (2.9 receptions per game), 414 receiving yards (25.9 receiving yards per game), 1.75 yards per route run and one receiving touchdown. Conner is a game-script-proof back.
Yet, the game script should work in Conner’s favor this week. The Cardinals are commanding 6.5-point favorites against the lowly Saints. According to RotoViz’s pace app, when excluding the final two minutes of the first half, the Cardinals had a 50% rush rate when tied or leading in 2024. That rate jumped to 54% on 299 plays when leading by at least three points outside of the final two minutes of the first half. Conner should be busy on the ground if things go according to the betting line.
Conner also has a mouthwatering matchup. The Saints allowed the fifth-most half-PPR points per game (22.9) to running backs last season. Our projections have Conner outside of the top 12 running backs in all scoring types this week, but I’ll flagplant him as this week’s RB1 in all scoring formats.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
