After going 0-3 on my bold predictions in Week 1, I hit my first bold prediction of the year in Week 2. The success rate is supposed to be low on bold predictions. Otherwise, those predictions wouldn’t be bold. So, getting one out of three correct last week with a near miss was a successful week.
I inaccurately predicted Travis Etienne would be a top-10 running back in Week 2 in half-PPR and full PPR formats; he was the RB12 and RB14, respectively, in those formats. I correctly predicted Drake Maye would exceed 20 fantasy points. Sadly, I closed things out with my second dud of a prediction featuring James Conner this season, as he didn’t sniff 110+ rushing yards or score a touchdown against the Panthers.
Now that I’ve gotten the monkey off my back with my first correct bold prediction, let’s keep things rolling.
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Week 3 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
Justin Herbert Will Finish as a Top-5 QB
Justin Herbert is the QB8 in the expert consensus rankings (ECR), but at a position where only only player is started in most leagues, predicting Herbert will finish in the top five instead of as a back-half starter in 10-team and 12-team leagues is somewhat bold. The Broncos also boast a wealth of talent on defense, contrary to their disappointing performance against the Colts in Week 2.
Herbert wasn’t fazed by Denver’s defense in two matchups last year. According to StatHead, Herbert completed 44 of his 65 pass attempts (67.7%) for 521 yards, 7.14 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, three touchdowns and one interception in those games. Herbert scored 35.84 fantasy points in the games against Denver, and his second outing was genuinely impressive. In Week 16 of last season, Herbert completed 74.2% of 31 pass attempts for 284 yards, two touchdowns and one interception with 28 rushing yards.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman are cutting Herbert loose this year, enhancing his odds of piling up fantasy points. According to nfelo, Los Angeles’s NFL-high 14.8% pass rate over expectation (PROE) this season is 7.1% higher than Kansas City’s in second place, and it’s 6.6% higher than Cincinnati’s NFL-high 8.2% PROE in 2024. Ideally, Ladd McConkey‘s biceps injury won’t sideline him this week. Still, I’ll make this prediction a bit spicier and say Herbert is a top-five fantasy signal-caller this week, even if McConkey is out.
Hot
Caleb Williams Will Finish Outside the Top 16
The injury bug has ravaged the quarterback position, pushing some signal-callers upward. Caleb Williams also has a drool-inducing matchup. The Cowboys have coughed up the third-most fantasy points per game (27.6) to quarterbacks this season.
In Williams’ first year in Ben Johnson’s offense, he’s the QB10 in fantasy points per game (21.1). Naturally, Williams is the QB9 in ECR. While there are logical reasons to rank Williams as a top-10 fantasy quarterback this week, the second-year quarterback isn’t good. His shortcomings matter as well, and bad quarterbacks can flub even Charmin-soft matchups.
Among 34 quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks this year, Williams is tied for 17th in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) passing grade and has the second-longest time to throw (3.28 seconds). Williams’ constant inability to get the ball out quickly has led to sacks. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Williams’ 8.45% sack rate is the 11th-highest among qualified quarterbacks, and his 5.51 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) ranks 21st.
While Williams can benefit from Johnson scripting the beginning of the game, it’s also worth pointing out that he’s stunk since opening Week 1 with 10 straight completions for 86 yards. Williams has completed only 30 of his last 55 attempts (54.5%) for 331 yards (6.02 per attempt) since the season’s opening drive. He also capped the season’s opening drive with his only career rushing touchdown. Ultimately, Williams still has plenty of warts, and I expect him to flub a golden opportunity and finish outside of the top 16 quarterbacks in fantasy leagues this week.
Atomic
Tucker Kraft Will Score at least 15 Half-PPR Points
Tucker Kraft scoring at least 15 half-PPR points this week might feel like a timid prediction after he scored 21.4 half-PPR points against the Commanders last week. However, we project Kraft to score 9.7 half-PPR points this week, and according to StatHead, he’s scored at least 15 half-PPR points only twice in his career.
The Browns are a challenging matchup, allowing the eighth-fewest half-PPR points per game (6.7) to tight ends this year. The game’s spread is also sizable, as the Packers are 7.5-point favorites.
Still, I wouldn’t have boldly declared Kraft would score at least 15 half-PPR points this week if there weren’t valid reasons to believe he could thrive. First, since the Packers are 7.5-point favorites, and the game’s total is 41.5 points, Green Bay’s implied total is a nifty 24.5 points. There should be touchdown opportunities available.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Kraft has two touchdowns on two end-zone targets this year, and Green Bay’s other pass-catchers have combined for three end-zone targets and two touchdowns. Kraft is one of Green Bay’s likeliest players to reach paydirt and contribute to their implied total.
The Packers might also choose to take to the air somewhat frequently this week since the matchup is a nightmare for their rushing attack. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Browns have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (45.5) and the fewest yards per carry (2.1) this season.
When Green Bay does air it out, Kraft is arguably the club’s best weapon. He leads the Packers in route participation rate (75.4%), target share (18.9%), receptions (eight), receiving yards (140) and receiving touchdowns (two). Sadly, Jayden Reed broke his collarbone last week, removing target competition from Kraft’s path.
Ultimately, Kraft might be the focal point of Green Bay’s passing attack, with the team’s rotation at wideout complementing him. As a result, I expect Kraft to ball out again this week, reaching at least 15 half-PPR points.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
