Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Bo Nix was bad in Week 1. There’s no way around it, but I’m not pressing the panic button yet. The Broncos looked rusty all day, with Nix struggling and Sean Payton too deep in his bag for his own good. Nix was the QB27 in fantasy in Week 1 and ranked 31st in yards per attempt, 28th in passer rating, 26th in CPOE, and 28th in catchable target rate. He did have eight carries, but he only managed 18 rushing yards. Indy crushed the Dolphins in Week 1, but I think that says more about the state of the Dolphins than it does about Indy’s defense after one game. They did give up the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, and the sixth-lowest CPOE. Indy also had the second-lowest pressure rate, so Nix should have time in the pocket in Week 2 to work through his issues. I think Nix has a bounce-back game in Week 2, but there’s some risk in playing him.
Dak Prescott played well in Week 1, but he was left walking away empty-handed with only 7.8 fantasy points. Thanks to two Javonte Williams short touchdowns, some underthrown seam balls, and his receivers dropping other passes, Prescott’s stat line doesn’t give him the respect he deserves. Prescott had the most yards lost in Week 1 due to drops (61). In Week 1, he was sixth in catchable target rate and third in hero throw rate while ranking seventh in aDOT. Prescott is primed for a better week against the Giants. In Week 1, they gave up the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the 12th-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE. This is while their talented defensive line had the eighth-lowest pressure rate.
The Patriots took to the sky in Week 1, running a pass-centric offense. In Week 1, New England ranked second in neutral passing rate (72.2%). The volume helped Drake Maye finish as the QB18 in fantasy, but it was disappointing in the rushing department as he only had four rushing attempts and 11 yards on the ground. This isn’t the rushing upside that we were promised in draft season, but it has only been one game, so we need to chill. As a passer, Maye ranked 19th in yards per attempt, 22nd in passer rating, 13th in highly accurate throw rate, and 15th in catchable target rate. Maye should have a strong week against what looked like a hapless secondary in Week 1. The Dolphins allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, sixth-highest passer rating, and the eighth-most passing yards in Week 1 to Daniel Jones.
Trevor Lawrence had a rough Week 1 in his first game with Liam Coen calling plays. There’s no denying it. Last week, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 22nd in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating, 19th in catchable target rate, and had the fifth-highest turnover-worthy play rate. He should have a bounce-back week 2 performance against a bottom-of-the-barrel Cincy pass defense. Last week, predictably, Cincy looked like the same pass defense from 2024, allowing the fifth-most passing yards, the 11th-highest CPOE, and the fourth-highest success rate. Lawrence could flirt with QB1 numbers this week if everything goes according to plan.
I had to go back and watch all of Justin Fields‘ all 22 from Week 1 before writing him up this week. He looks so much more confident and comfortable in this offense. He’s getting the ball out quicker and confidently while flashing pocket navigation that we haven’t consistently seen from Fields. Fields looks like he has his swagger back. He added some nice passing stats to his 12 carries, 48 rushing yards, and two scores on the ground in Week 1. In Week 1, he ranked third in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, first in CPOE, and eighth-best in highly accurate throw rate. Toss out the Bills’ pass defense stats from Week 1 as Lamar Jackson shredded them, but this is a middle-of-the-road matchup for Fields, even if we look at 2024. Last year, Buffalo ranked 15th in yards per attempt and passer rating allowed while also giving up the seventh-highest CPOE. Fields should have clean pockets again this week against a pass defense that did have the seventh-lowest pressure rate in Week 1.
Tell me if you’ve heard this before…J.J. McCarthy will be a QB1 in fantasy in 2025. Well, despite the entire social media landscape attempting to dig his grave in the first half of Week 1’s matchup with the Bears, McCarthy DID IT! He was the QB11 in fantasy in Week 1, and once he settled in, he was fantastic. There will be growing pains for McCarthy, but he was awesome once the offensive line gave him some time, and his clock caught up to the speed of the NFL. In Week 1, he ranked 12th in yards per attempt and passer rating, fourth in CPOE, and tenth in catchable target rate. He also added 25 yards and a score on the ground. McCarthy will need his offensive line to hold up again this week against a defense that ranked 11th in blitz rate and third in pressure rate. If he has time, he can pick apart a secondary that in Week 1 allowed the 14th-highest success rate per dropback and 11th-highest passer rating.
These players are in the gray area. Not a smash start, not a hard fade. Jordan Love was quite good in Week 1 despite posting only 15.9 fantasy points. The problem wasn’t Love’s play, but the fact that he had only 23 dropbacks as the Packers turtled and sat on their lead against the Lions. In Week 1, Love ranked seventh in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, eighth in catchable target rate, second in hero throw rate, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Love will have what looks like a tough on-paper matchup this week against Washington, but it has been only one game (not to take anything away from Washington). In Week 1, they allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating and the lowest CPOE. Yes, I know this was against the Giants. I think there also has to be some context to the fact that Washington was also fourth in pressure rate. The Commanders do have a talented defense, but this is probably best viewed as a middle-of-the-road matchup for Love and company and a litmus test for Washington’s defense. Love should have clean pockets to operate from in Week 2 after facing the fourth-lowest pressure rate in Week 1. The passing volume is a concern for Love, but Jayden Daniels can hopefully push them to take to the sky more in Week 2.
Well, Daniel Jones was the QB2 in fantasy in Week 1. He ripped the pitiful Dolphins apart. He added 26 rushing yards and two scores on the ground (seven carries) to a solid passing day. Jones ranked fourth in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, and third in catchable target rate. He faced the third-lowest pressure rate in Week 1 despite Miami blitzing (51.5%) at the highest rate in the NFL. That says more about the Miami pass rush than the Indy offensive line at this point. We’ll see if Jones can keep it up this week against one of the best defenses in the NFL. This week is a huge litmus test for Jones. Last week, Denver allowed the fewest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE. Denver ranked ninth in pressure rate and 13th in blitz rate.
Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock in Week 1. He finished as the QB7 after their unlikely shootout game against the Jets. He ranked ninth in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, and 14th in CPOE. His deeper accuracy metrics don’t paint as pretty a picture as he was also 16th in highly accurate throw rate and 22nd in catchable target rate. Rodgers could keep up the solid production in Week 2 against what looks like a middle-of-the-road Seattle pass defense. In Week 1, Seattle allowed the tenth-most yards per attempt and sixth-highest success rate per dropback while also ranking 18th in CPOE and 17th in pressure rate. Rodgers is a decent QB2 with some upside.
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