MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (9/14)

We’re looking at the featured DFS slate today on DraftKings, which begins at 1:35 p.m. ET. That slate includes nine games. FanDuel has two contests that begin at the same time. One of them is an all-day slate, and the other game includes the same nine games as DraftKings.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (9/14)

MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (9/14) | FantasyPros
PLAYER DraftKings Salary FanDuel Salary
Nolan McLean $8,900 $9,700
Aaron Nola $7,500 $9,200
Jacob Latz $7,300 $7,400
  • Nolan McLean has been sensational since coming to the Major Leagues. In 31.2 innings, he has a 1.42 ERA and a 2.51 FIP. He has struck out 33 batters with only 10 walks. Looking at the underlying data is even more encouraging, with a 66.7% ground ball rate. If he had the innings to qualify, that would be a league-leading mark.
  • Aaron Nola’s last game looked like vintage Nola, striking out seven batters over six shutout innings. He will try to replicate that start today against the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have been a bottom-five offense this season by wRC+. Look at his price on DraftKings.
  • Jacob Latz has recently returned to starting games for the Rangers. The strikeouts have been inconsistent, but the run prevention has been consistent. In his three starts, he has covered 15.1 innings with only 10 strikeouts. That is adversely impacted by a one-strikeout effort in his second start. Run prevention hasn’t been a problem as he has a 2.35 ERA and a 3.47 FIP in those starts.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers Projected Lineup (9/14)

POS PLAYER DraftKings Salary FanDuel Salary
OF Sal Frelick $4,000 $3,000
OF Jackson Chourio $5,000 $3,500
2B Brice Turang $4,900 $3,300
C William Contreras $4,600 $3,100
OF Christian Yelich $5,200 $3,600
OF/2B (FD) Isaac Collins $4,100 $2,800
1B/OF Jake Bauers $3,300 $2,800
3B/2B (FD) Caleb Durbin $3,200 $2,800
SS/3B/2B (FD) Joey Ortiz $2,800 $2,600
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have a matchup against division rival St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals are starting Miles Mikolas. He has an ERA of 4.84, but all of his ERA indicators (FIP, expected ERA, expected FIP) are higher than that mark. He has also been considerably worse on the road with an ERA of 6.54.
  • A good starting point for a Brewers stack is Christian Yelich. He leads all qualified batters in home run to fly ball rate at 30.3%. We already saw one of those fly balls leave the yard earlier in this Cardinal series. Yelich has only had nine hits against Mikolas in 45 at-bats, but two of them are home runs.
  • Brice Turang has emerged as an asset in the power department. He has hit 12 home runs in the second half of the season. Turang is certainly more of a power hitter from the right side, with 15 of his 18 home runs coming from the right side..
  • The other batter in the Brewers’ lineup with an OPS over .800 against right-handed pitching is Isaac Collins. While his pace has cooled a bit, he still has a .289/.394/.427 triple slash line against right-handed pitchers.

Houston Astros Projected Lineup (9/14)

POS PLAYER DraftKings Salary FanDuel Salary
SS Jeremy Pena $4,800 $3,200
OF Yordan Alvarez $4,600 $3,700
3B/SS (FD) Carlos Correa $3,600 $2,900
2B/OF (FD) Jose Altuve $4,200 $3,300
1B Christian Walker $3,500 $3,200
OF Jake Meyers $3,400 $2,800
C Yainer Diaz $3,300 $2,800
OF Cam Smith $2,900 $2,700
OF/SS/3B/2B (FD) Mauricio Dubon $2,300 $2,400
  • The Houston Astros are a top-five team by wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season. Today, they face a left-handed pitcher in Joey Wentz. Over his last four starts, he has allowed 17 earned runs in 16.1 innings. While that is unsustainably poor, a matchup with the Astros will be difficult.
  • You would think that, as a left-handed hitter, you would want to sit Yordan Alvarez against a left-handed pitcher. It’s a small sample considering the time he missed with his hand injury, but so far, he has been even better against left-handed pitching. He has five extra-base hits, including a pair of home runs, in only 28 at-bats against lefties.
  • Carlos Correa has been rejuvenated since returning to Houston. His OPS with the Astros jumped to .789 after being at .704 with the Twins earlier in the season. He has seven extra-base hits in the past 28 days, with four of them being home runs. Correa has also had a pair of doubles and a home run off Wentz in his career.
  • Left-handed pitchers are where we can use Cam Smith in DFS games. While Smith has four home runs and four stolen bases against left- and right-handed pitchers, he has over 200 more at-bats against right-handed pitchers. His OPS against left-handed pitchers is .840.

Core Studs

POS PLAYER DraftKings Salary FanDuel Salary
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. $5,100 $3,500
OF Corbin Carroll $5,700 $4,100
1B Vinnie Pasquantino $4,400 $3,000
  • The Blue Jays were nearly a team to stack today against Dean Kremer. While they didn’t quite make it, make sure that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in your lineup. He has gone 13-for-34 against Kremer in his career with three doubles and home runs.
  • Corbin Carroll has already set a new career high in home runs with 30. Most of that power has come against right-handed pitchers, like today’s opponent, Bailey Ober. Twenty-three of Carroll’s home runs have come against right-handed pitchers. Even though he missed time with an injury, Ober still leads the American League in home runs allowed with 29.
  • Another player with a new career best mark in home runs is Vinnie Pasquantino. He also happens to be at 30 for the season. Pasquantino has been on a tear recently with eight home runs in the past 28 days.

Value Plays/Punts

POS PLAYER DraftKings Salary FanDuel Salary
OF Jeremiah Jackson $3,800 $2,900
1B/2B/3B/OF (FD) Kody Clemens $3,600 $3,100
OF Parker Meadows $3,200 $2,600
  • It’s not an easy matchup for Jeremiah Jackson, who is going up against Shane Bieber. However, I think he is undervalued for how he has performed over the past month. In the last 28 days, Jackson has 10 extra-base hits, including five home runs. His seasonal OPS is now at .805.
  • If you look up platoon bat in the dictionary, you’ll see a picture of Kody Clemens. All 19 of his home runs have come against right-handed pitchers, like he faces today in Nabil Crismatt. Clemens has four home runs in the last week. His multi-position eligibility is a bonus on FanDuel.
  • Parker Meadows was moved to the leadoff spot yesterday for the Detroit Tigers. He delivered with a pair of hits. If he is batting first for the Tigers, he is more valuable than his current cost in DFS.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Will Warren (SP – NYY): 4.5 Strikeouts — Lower

Will Warren struck out five Detroit Tigers in his last game on the mound. That was the first time he cleared 4.5 strikeouts since August 11th. Today, he has a matchup against the Boston Red Sox. He recently faced them on August 23rd, and he struck out only three batters.

Carlos Correa (3B, SS – HOU): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI — Higher

Carlos Correa’s rejuvenation with the Astros was already mentioned earlier. He has exceeded a combined 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in 10 out of 12 games so far in August. Considering his .802 OPS against left-handed pitching, I expect he keeps it going today.

Juan Soto (OF – NYM): Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI — Higher

What a run Juan Soto is on. After yesterday, he is now at 40 home runs and 32 stolen bases. That’s not what we’re going to look to play, though.

We’re looking at his hits + runs + RBI play. He has cleared the 1.5 number on the combo play over this mark in four of his last five games and in 10 out of 12 games in September.


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