Top 5 Fantasy Football Takeaways: Surprises & Disappointments

Week 1 is the biggest reveal of the NFL season. After an offseason of player and coaching movement, smoke screens, rumors of players playing specific roles and breathless reporting on training camp and preseason usage, the proof is in the pudding with player usage in the season’s opening week. All of your league mates will read the box scores, and they can all sort players by fantasy football points scored in Week 1 at each provider. Yet, a look under the hood is crucial to determine the sustainability of Week 1 performances. Let’s look at the pleasant surprises, disappointments and one other noteworthy happening that didn’t quite fit under either of the aforementioned categories.

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Top 5 Fantasy Football Takeaways

Let’s dive into the biggest takeaways from the first weekend of fantasy football.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Surprises

Travis Etienne Staked a Claim to Lead Running Back Duties in Jacksonville’s Committee

Travis Etienne gashed Carolina’s still-leaky run defense for 143 rushing yards on 16 attempts, including a 71-yard rush. He also added three receptions on three targets for 13 scoreless yards. Etienne didn’t score a touchdown. Nevertheless, gamers who rolled the dice on him in drafts had to be thrilled with his output, especially if they started him in Week 1. However, all four of Jacksonville’s running backs had multiple touches.

Tank Bigsby was second in the backfield in rush attempts with five, but he turned them into only 12 scoreless yards. Bhayshul Tuten had three carries for 11 scoreless yards, and LeQuint Allen had one for seven yards. Furthermore, Allen was the only running back other than Etienne with a target, securing it for a four-yard reception.

As impressive as Etienne’s box-score dominance was, his underlying usage might have been even more encouraging for his rest-of-season outlook. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Etienne paced the backfield in snaps, tallying 40. Bigsby (14 snaps), Allen (nine snaps) and Tuten (four snaps) combined for just 27 snaps. Etienne also ran 15 routes versus seven for Bigsby and six for Allen. Etienne won’t always benefit from facing the Panthers. Nonetheless, his stock is way up after Week 1, and he’s a trustworthy, high-end RB2 with RB1 potential until or unless his usage changes.

Toss Out Your Prior Evaluations of Greg Roman

Let’s rewind the clock to Friday night’s upset victory by the Chargers over the Chiefs in Brazil. Los Angeles played an exciting brand of offense in their opener. Greg Roman allowed Justin Herbert to sling the ball all over the yard. Yes, the same Roman who has been historically lamented for boring, ground-and-pound offenses let Herbert cook, and the results were spectacular.

The Chargers scored 27 points and piled up 394 yards on offense. Herbert completed 25 of 34 passes (73.5%) for 318 yards and three touchdowns lit up the Chiefs, and his targets were tightly distributed to Keenan Allen (10 targets, seven receptions, 68 receiving yards and one touchdown), Ladd McConkey (nine targets, six receptions and 74 receiving yards) and Quentin Johnston (seven targets, five receptions, 79 receiving yards and two touchdowns).

Fortunately for gamers who drafted Omarion Hampton, he handled 15 of the backfield’s 16 rush attempts. Sadly, Hampton had only 48 scoreless rushing yards, two targets, two receptions, and 13 receiving yards. Still, the usage is a plus for his outlook, and a high tide of an explosive offense would raise all ships.

Circling back to the passing game, per the nfelo app, the Chargers had a 15.2% pass rate over expectations (PROE) in the opener. To put that number in perspective, the Bengals led the NFL in 2024 with an 8.2% PROE. Obviously, the Chargers won’t continue to pass at that level of a prolific PROE. Still, their pass-happy tendencies didn’t emerge from nowhere. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Chargers had a 48% situation-neutral pass rate before their Week 5 bye in 2024. From Week 6 through the playoffs, Los Angeles’s 59% situation-neutral pass rate was tied for the NFL’s fourth-highest mark. Herbert should be treated as a low-end QB1 with the potential to exceed that if his 32 rushing yards in the opener are a sign of things to come. McConkey was already a locked-in starter in leagues of all sizes, but Allen is a compelling fantasy option, and Johnston is a priority waiver claim to see if he can build on his success from Week 1.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Disappointments

The Dolphins Are Duds

Gamers who ignored Miami’s systemic risk, Mike McDaniel’s smoke and mirrors running their course, the retirement of Terron Armstead and the many reasons to fade players from the Dolphins in the offseason were greeted by a nightmarish showing in Week 1. The Colts blew out the Dolphins 33-8, and Miami tallied a pitiful 211 yards on 46 plays. Yikes.

Indianapolis’s defense might prove to be an above-average unit this season, but it didn’t come into the season with outside expectations of being an elite unit. Nevertheless, they stuffed Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s gimmick offense into a locker, and the telecast even picked up Tyreek Hill seemingly whining on the sideline.

Tagovailoa completed 14 of 23 passes for a comical 114 yards and one touchdown. He also threw two interceptions, took three sacks and lost a fumble. De’Von Achane had seven rush attempts for 55 yards, while end-of-the-offseason hype machine Ollie Gordon toted the rock only two times. Achane played 34 snaps and also ran 22 routes compared to 12 and nine for Gordon. Achane added three receptions for 20 yards and a garbage-time touchdown reception to salvage his Week 1 output. Hill had four receptions for 40 scoreless yards, and Jaylen Waddle had four receptions for 30 scoreless yards.

Gamers don’t have much of a choice but to hold Hill and Waddle, hoping for better days. Achane might be able to continue to overcome the offense’s ineptitude. Yet, I suggest working tirelessly to trade him in re-draft leagues since his 75 scrimmage yards, three receptions and one touchdown don’t look too shabby. I was bearish on Miami’s offense in the offseason. After pooping the bed in Week 1, I don’t see reasons for optimism about them going forward.

Detroit’s Post-Ben Johnson Offense Laid an Egg

The Lions scored only 13 points on Sunday and didn’t reach the end zone until there were 55 seconds left, when they were trailing 27-6. The Lions had 246 yards on a paltry 3.8 yards per play. Green Bay’s defense could be one of the league’s best this year, and it’s probably unwise to panic over the first game running a new offense. Nonetheless, Detroit’s Week 1 showing was suboptimal.

David Montgomery outcarried Jahmyr Gibbs 11 to nine, but Gibbs had 44 snaps compared to 25 for Montgomery. The more explosive Gibbs’s 28 routes doubled Montgomery’s 14. So, Gibbs didn’t have a backfield takeover, even though he’s the more desirable fantasy option. Gibbs also hauled in all of his team-high 10 targets for 31 yards, helping offset his 19 scoreless rushing yards in half-point per reception (half PPR) and PPR formats. Montgomery isn’t a must-start option in most leagues until the Lions demonstrate a better aptitude for scoring with John Morton as the offensive coordinator.

On the plus side, Jameson Williams (65 snaps and 43 routes), Amon-Ra St. Brown (63 snaps and 42 routes) and Sam LaPorta (61 snaps and 38 routes) were the focal points of the passing attack, albeit with fantasy results ranging from poor to adequate. Again, it wasn’t an ideal start in the wake of Ben Johnson’s departure to Chicago for their head-coaching gig, but if there’s a buy-low window for Gibbs, the Sun God or Williams, it’s worth kicking the tires.

Miscellaneous Note

Seattle’s Backfield Usage in Week 1 Went Against Fantasy Football Average Draft Position (ADP) Expectations

Kenneth Walker was drafted in all league types as Seattle’s lead running back. Yet, Zach Charbonnet played more snaps (30 to 21), ran more routes (11 versus nine) and carried the ball more (12 compared to 10) than Walker. Charbonnet ran for 47 yards and punched in a one-yard rushing touchdown, while Walker ran for 20 scoreless yards and inefficiently turned four targets into three receptions for four yards. Charbonnet wasn’t targeted, but PFF’s Nathan Jahnke noted Charbonnet played the two-minute drill. Between Charbonnet’s two-minute drill and goal-line usage, he had the more valuable roles. Walker has home-run ability, but his value took a substantial hit after the Week 1 reveal. Gamers are probably best served holding and hoping Walker’s role grows in the coming weeks than selling at a discount. Meanwhile, Charbonnet can emerge as a reliable RB2 if his usage is sticky week to week, and he’s a viable buy option for RB-needy gamers.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.