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Players to Sell
Christian McCaffery continues to be inefficient as a rusher – 3.2 YPC, 41% success rate – but he scored and ATE as a receiver in Week 6.
Still I feel no different than I did last week.
CMC is on pace for 437 touches through 6 weeks. What could go wrong? McCaffery’s receiving usage has been off the charts…but eventually the 49ers will get most of their starting WRs and TEs back. Consider that CMC has been bad as a rusher…right now is the time to flip him for MAX ROI. He is PFF’s 7th-lowest graded RB this season, averaging 3.1 yards per carry with the NFL’s 8th-lowest success rate.
Tick tock on the sell-high window for CMC. But I get it if you just want to ride it out. I’m just saying that if you can get a really strong return (Jonathan Taylor, etc.) I’d be willing to part ways with CMC.
Put Saquon Barkley on the trade block. He hasn’t been the same guy as last season. The Eagles’ OL has regressed due to some injuries. Barkley is PFF’s 6th-lowest graded RB. The schedule has been tough, so things should have gotten better… starting with the NYG. But it wasn’t. I’d entertain selling Barkley after he underwhelmed with 12 carries for 58 yards in a smash spot.
Travis Etienne was bottled up for the second straight game. 12 for 27 yards. Starting center, Robert Hainsey did not play.
Bhayshul Tuten had a 2-point attempt as well to go with two carries for 14 yards.
I’ve talked about Etienne as a sell…and the tougher matchups he has had are hurting his production.
Etienne is still averaging over 5 yards per carry on the season, but his success rate ranks 16th-worst (39%). Tuten’s is nearly 9% points higher.
Schedule doesn’t get much easier with the Rams, BYE, Raiders and Texans in the next month.
The backfield was spearheaded by Alvin Kamara with a 62% snap rate to Kendre Miller‘s 39%. It was a tough matchup, so it’s not too surprising that neither guy was super efficient rushing the ball.
Miller had another target wiped away with a flag, but Kamara dominated the targets out of the backfield (5 for 45). But the red zone rushing TD…went to Taysom Hill.
Kamara has been adamant about not being traded…so he’s stuck on the Saints in a three-headed monster. Remains a sell.
This season, Kamara is PFF’s 10th-lowest graded RB. Miller is PFF’s 10th-highest graded RB. If anything, I’d be adding Miller ahead of a juicy matchup versus the Bears. Very FLEX-worthy this week.
Interestingly enough, the Chase Brown usage TANKED in Week 6. He played just 54% of the snaps compared to Samaje Perine‘s 46%. Perine even got the first carry and was only out-touched 8-11. The last two weeks, this has been closer to a 60/40 split.
Last week I chalked it up to garbage time…but this is a more concerning split.
Brown was at least more efficient as a rusher (season-high YPC and success rate), but that doesn’t help us that much for fantasy purposes. He needs volume to thrive in a bad offense. Brown ranks second-to-last in rushing success rate this season. Tough draw next week versus a healthy Steelers defense.
David Montgomery was my big “sell” after last week’s game. And I hope you did because he laid a dud on Sunday Night. I’ve been talking about this throughout my articles this season, but he is seeing significantly less work under new OC Jon Morton. Just four carries to Jahmyr Gibbs‘ 17. Monty played 31% of the snaps (16 snaps). Lowest of the season after playing a season-high last week (54%).
Obviously, if the pass TD to Jared Goff stands, Monty’s final stat line isn’t as bad. But passing TDs (although almost done successfully for two weeks in a two) aren’t reliable fantasy production.
Now Monty won’t be as bad on SNF in future weeks. Lions will be winning, with positive game scripts, etc. But if this defense continues to force shootouts…that’s bad news for Montgomery in a negative game script.
Mongomery is very TD-dependent. And even though next week is a home game…it’s against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense.
Tony Pollard‘s trending in the completely wrong direction. Just 10 carries for 34 yards against an underrated Raiders run defense. Tyjae Spears was more effective as a rusher- averaging 6.2 YPC with 5 carries for 31 yards. 60% success rate to 20% success rate.
Spears also took over the pass-catching role…with four targets to Pollard’s two.
And due to the negative game script…Spears out-snapped Pollard (59% vs 43%). Pollard’s routes dipped to 25%.
Pollard has been a priority sell for the last few weeks, so hopefully, he is already off your roster. And given the firing of Brian Callahan there’s no telling where this backfield will go. I just know they have another brutal matchup on deck vs the Patriots.
It’s good that we are getting volume. Because the Eagles’ run game is struggling…we are seeing more volume for guys like Dallas Goedert, A.J. Brown, etc.
DG: 9-110-1 on 11 targets. AJB: 6-80-0 on 9 targets.
Those top two guys deliver more often than not, but DeVonta Smith seems like the one who gets left out. Now, if he catches that deep bomb last week, nobody is upset. So he’s a hold till he pops, then you flip him.
Smith is just WR43 in XPPG (WR42 in PPG) this season. And this is nothing out of the ordinary. His numbers drop dramatically when Goedert and AJB are healthy.
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