Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Safe & Risky Picks (Week 7)

Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert ranks in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy football lineup in Week 7?

Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice

Week 7 Risky Fantasy Football Starts

Zonovan Knight (RB – ARI) vs. Green Bay Packers

Highest Rank: RB28
Lowest Rank: RB40

No running back in this offense has a true stranglehold on the No. 1 RB role with Trey Benson out. Zonovan Knight was announced as the starter on Sunday morning, while the majority of fantasy managers were under the impression Michael Carter would get the start after his strong Week 5 performance. However, while Knight was the starter, he did not significantly out-snap Carter, nor did he outperform him. He also wasn’t significantly involved in the pass game. Knight played 37 out of 73 snaps. Carter played 32 out of 73 snaps. Knight got only two carries more than Carter, while Carter saw three more targets and ran more routes than Knight.

The matchup this week also presents a problem. The Packers are a mixed bag against the run. They started strong against the Detroit and Washington backfields, holding both to fewer than 50 yards on the ground. The following two weeks, they struggled to stop Quinshon Judkins and Javonte Williams. The Packers’ defense bounced back well in Week 6 against Cincinnati. Overall, though, this isn’t the most ideal matchup. The good news is Emari Demercado was not a factor, so if the backfield remains a committee, Knight would have a certain baseline of work. However, given his lack of receiving upside, he would be touchdown dependent, which makes him a risky start this week.

Note – Knight was limited in practice on Wednesday.

My Projected Finish: RB30

Elic Ayomanor (WR – TEN) vs. New England Patriots

Highest Rank: WR38
Lowest Rank: WR49

We’ll know more about Calvin Ridley‘s status as the week goes on, but he didn’t practice on Wednesday, and given that his issue is a hamstring injury, he will likely be out this week. That opens up the door for Elic Ayomanor to be the clear No. 1 WR for the Titans. The problem, and why this is such a risky play, is that there is no guaranteed inherent value in being the No. 1 WR for the Titans. We thought Cam Ward was progressing in a positive direction after a slightly better performance against Arizona in Week 5, and we were clinging to an impressive game-winning drive.

Week 6 remained on track with subpar performances. Ridley left the game fairly early, and despite that exit, Ayomanor still only had three receptions for 27 yards, and it was Van Jefferson who had the stronger performance. In terms of snaps, routes and targets, the lead receiver role does still favor Ayomanor. However, it’s tough to trust there will be enough yardage to support a fantasy start, and Ward has only thrown three touchdowns this year. The last time we saw a touchdown from Ward to a wide receiver was way back in Week 3. Ayomanor isn’t just a risky start — he’s more of a desperation Hail Mary.

My Projected Finish: WR41

Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG) vs. Denver Broncos

Highest Rank: QB12
Lowest Rank: QB20

Week 7 will truly test our trust in Jaxson Dart against a Denver defense that is typically viewed as one of the most difficult matchups for opposing quarterbacks and receivers. In 2024, they were often labeled as a complete no-go, but this season has been inconsistent. The Broncos have held Cam Ward, Jake Browning and Justin Fields to fewer than 130 yards with no touchdowns. However, in games where they played Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, they allowed a minimum of 280 passing yards and at least a touchdown to each quarterback.

While the Broncos are coming off an insane defensive game where they held Fields to just 45 passing yards, this is an entirely winnable matchup for Dart, who has been on fire since becoming the starter. Dart isn’t winning through extreme pass volume — he’s yet to exceed 202 passing yards — however, he’s been fairly efficient overall, performed well despite an extremely limited receiving corps and has a minimum of 50 rushing yards in every game he’s started this season. Being a rookie and facing one of the league’s most difficult secondaries does make this a naturally risky play. However, Dart remains one of the stronger streaming options this week.

My Projected Finish: QB15

More Risky Starts

Rhamondre Stevenson & TreVeyon Henderson
Nick Chubb
Jauan Jennings
Jerry Jeudy
Jameson Williams
Oronde Gadsden II

Week 7 Safe Fantasy Football Starts

D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) vs. New Orleans Saints

Highest Rank: RB16
Lowest Rank: RB21

D’Andre Swift is coming off an incredible performance of 14 carries for 108 yards with two receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown — by far his best performance of the season. His 7.71 average yards per carry is the highest he’s had over the past three years. This was highly impressive because Washington’s defense, outside of one big game to Bijan Robinson, has been fairly stout at limiting fantasy upside.

This week, Swift faces a New Orleans defense that’s performed fairly well against the run. However, it’s not the matchup that makes Swift a safe play — it’s the fact that despite some very underwhelming performances early in the year, Swift has remained the clear lead back for Chicago. While rookie Kyle Monangai continues to see increased snaps, Swift has a steady hold on the backfield with a safe floor. His worst performance of the year came in Week 1, where he had 9.5 fantasy points. In today’s wild running back economy, that’s about as good a floor as you can get.

My Projected Finish: RB20

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG) vs. Denver Broncos

Highest Rank: WR28
Lowest Rank: WR34

You might be wondering how Jaxson Dart is a risky start, yet Wan’Dale Robinson is a safe start this week. Robinson can pay off as a solid Flex play even without a QB1 performance from Dart. We’re extremely grateful for the varied usage and increased average depth of target (aDOT) for Robinson this season, but he is still playing the majority of his snaps out of the slot, which will bode well for him in this matchup.

Denver’s secondary is tough as a whole; however, more than likely, Robinson won’t be facing Patrick Surtain II. While Robinson’s matchup won’t be a layup, it can be productive from a fantasy perspective. Robinson was by far the most effective Giants receiver in Week 7, catching six of his seven targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. He’s had a reliable target share since the exit of Malik Nabers, and he’s the clear No. 1 WR in this offense. He should benefit from being the safety blanket for Dart in this matchup.

My Projected Finish: WR28

Matthew Golden (WR – GB) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Highest Rank: WR30
Lowest Rank: WR35

Matthew Golden hasn’t had his breakout performance, but what he has had is consistent improvement week over week for the past three games, and he continues to showcase that he is likely the most reliable Packers receiver. While that reliability hasn’t turned into big fantasy production, it has given us a nice floor of double-digit fantasy points in each of the past three games despite not having a touchdown on the year.

On paper, Arizona looks like one of the more difficult matchups for opposing receivers, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. However, that’s less a function of Arizona’s defense being incredibly stout and more a function of the quality of quarterbacks they’ve faced. Teams move the ball very well in general against the Cardinals. They struggle to stop the run, and Green Bay thrives on the ground with Josh Jacobs. The Packers’ offense should drive here with ample opportunities in the red zone. Golden can finally get that elusive first touchdown of his career. Even without the touchdown, we’ve got enough evidence and a good enough matchup here that we can pencil Golden in for 10 to 13 fantasy points.

My Projected Finish: WR32