The first featured game stack won’t surprise anyone. It’s a highly anticipated matchup, with two superstar quarterbacks and a massive total. The second suggested game stack features a ton of value options, as reflected in multiple players with elite value scores (points per $1,000 of salary). While both games have many players who will appear in the core plays section of tomorrow’s Week 9 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet, only one was carried over to the core studs and the values/punts sections. I opted to use those sections to highlight a few more excellent selections for this week’s NFL DFS main slate.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 9
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Bills vs. Chiefs
Spread/Total: KC -2.0/52.5 Points
The Bills and Chiefs have frequently produced fireworks. In nine matchups since 2020, including the playoffs, Buffalo and Kansas City have produced 61, 51, 51, 37, 44, 78, 58, 62 and 43 points, working backwards from last year’s AFC Championship Game to Week 6 in the 2020 season. As the 37, 44 and 43-point contests illustrate, there’s some potential for both teams to produce a lower-scoring slugfest instead of a shootout. Nevertheless, the game’s 52.5-point total is the highest on the main slate, and the game’s 2.0-point spread is slight.
This game has the unique distinction of featuring optimizer darlings at quarterback on both teams. In fact, the lineup optimizer projects Josh Allen as the QB2 and Patrick Mahomes as the QB1, with the QB4 value score at DraftKings and the QB1 value score at FanDuel, on this week’s main slate.
According to StatHead, Allen has tallied 2,300 passing yards (255.6 per game), 19 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 487 rushing yards (54.1 per game) and five rushing touchdowns in nine games against the Chiefs since 2020. Conversely, Mahomes has produced 2,465 passing yards (273.9 per game), 19 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions, 262 rushing yards (29.1 per game) and three rushing touchdowns in those same contests. Allen and Mahomes have massive ceilings, and no further elaboration is needed for why they should be considered on DFS rosters this week.
The Bills could also continue to lean on James Cook. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Buffalo is tied for the sixth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (48%) this year. Meanwhile, Kansas City is tied for facing the seventh-highest situation-neutral rush rate (46%). Per Sumer Sports, the Chiefs are tied for 19th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush. Thus, they’ve been below average against the run.
Of course, Cook has also played exceptionally well. He leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (107.6). Additionally, according to the Fantasy Points data suite, among 46 running backs with at least 40 rush attempts this year, Cook is first in yards per carry (5.98), seventh in yards after contact per attempt (2.84), second in yards before contact per attempt (3.13), 14th in explosive run rate (5.6%), first in stuff rate (31.0%), tied for 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.17), first in success rate (68.7%) in zone concepts and third in success rate in man/gap concepts (63.8%). Cook is projected as the RB6 at both sites this week.
Isiah Pacheco is expected to miss at least this week with an MCL injury, paving the way for Kareem Hunt to lead Kansas City’s backfield in carries. Elijah Mitchell could be active this week and serve as an annoyance for Hunt’s workload as a runner.
Still, the Bills have a run-funnel defense. Buffalo is tied for facing the fourth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (48%) this year. They’re also tied for 26th in EPA allowed per rush. Per Pro Football Reference, the Bills have surrendered the sixth-most DraftKings points per game (26.0) and the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (22.8) to running backs this season. Hunt isn’t an exciting player, but he’s a matchup-driven punt, and the veteran runner has scored five touchdowns this season.
Brashard Smith could also see an uptick in early-down work to help fill the void of Pacheco’s absence. Moreover, the already pass-happy Chiefs could prefer to lean on Mahomes’ arm and feed Smith some targets instead of using their running backs on the ground.
Since Week 4, Smith has had the following receiving stats.
- 13.7% route participation rate
- 1.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 9.0% target share
- 0.57 targets per route run
- 3.2 targets per game
- 14 receptions (2.8 per game)
- 122 receiving yards (24.4 per game)
- 4.36 yards per route run (Y/RR)
Even a slight uptick in usage could make Smith a viable punt, specifically at DraftKings.
Circling back to Buffalo’s passing game, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid are Allen’s most productive pass-catching weapons, ranking second and first on the team in receiving yards per game at 50.9 and 51.7, respectively. They are also eye-catching selections based on Kansas City’s coverage tendencies.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Chiefs are tied for fifth in two-high coverage rate (57.2%) this season. Kincaid has 0.24 targets per route run and 2.11 Y/RR against two-high coverage, and Shakir has 0.22 targets per route and, admittedly, an underwhelming 1.17 Y/RR against two-high coverage this season. Last season, Kincaid had 0.30 targets per route run and 2.31 Y/RR, and Shakir had 0.26 targets per route run and 2.38 Y/RR against two-high coverage.
Rashee Rice is projected as the WR4 at both DFS providers, with the WR3 value score at FanDuel. He’s recorded a 26.1% target share, 0.39 targets per route run, 16 receptions (8.0 per game), 135 receiving yards (67.5 per game), 2.93 Y/RR and three receiving touchdowns in two games this season on only a 57.5% route participation rate. The third-year pro also has drool-inducing numbers against Buffalo’s coverage tendencies, but I’ll elaborate on those in the Underdog player props.
Game: Giants vs. 49ers
Spread/Total: SF -2.5/48.5 Points
Jaxson Dart is projected as the QB8 at both DFS sites, with the QB1 value score at DraftKings and the QB6 value score at FanDuel. Tyrone Tracy has the RB2 value score at DraftKings and the RB5 value score at FanDuel. Wan’Dale Robinson has the WR12 value score at both DFS sites. In addition, Theo Johnson is tied for the TE4 value score at DraftKings. Big Blue’s offense is loaded with point-per-dollar values.
Since Dart made his first start in Week 4, Dart is only 27th in passing yards per game (196.8), but he’s tied for 12th in passing touchdowns (eight), first in rushing yards (195) among quarterbacks, fourth in rushing yards per game (39.0) among quarterbacks and first in rushing touchdowns (four) among quarterbacks. Thus, Dart is the QB7 in DraftKings points per game (23.4) and tied for the QB5 in FanDuel points per game (23.2) since Week 4.
The following table illustrates the receiving numbers for Robinson and Johnson in Dart’s five starts.
Robinson is a more appealing stacking option with Dart and a more appetizing standalone play than Johnson. Still, Johnson’s a usable punt-priced, namely at DraftKings, tight end.
Cam Skattebo‘s unfortunate season-ending injury opens the door for Tracy to reprise the lead running back duties he had most of his rookie season in 2024. Tracy first cleared a 60% snap share in Week 5 last season. From Week 5 through Week 18, Tracy had the following stats.
- 62.3 rushing yards per game
- 4.50 yards per carry
- Five rushing touchdowns
- 43.2% route participation rate
- 2.6 receptions per game
- 18.7 receiving yards per game
- One receiving touchdown
- 13.8 DraftKings points per game
- 12.3 FanDuel points per game
- 13.2 expected fantasy points per game
Big Blue’s offense was markedly worse last season. So, the second-year pro has a higher ceiling in a better offense this year. Tracy is a steal at both DFS providers this week.
George Kittle is projected as the TE4 at DraftKings, where he’s tied for the TE4 value score. He’s projected as the TE3 at FanDuel, with the TE2 value score. Kittle always has eruption potential.
He can feast against Big Blue’s man-heavy defense. The G-Men have played man coverage at the second-highest rate (41.3%) and single-high coverage at the sixth-highest rate (57.1%) this season. Kittle hasn’t played well against man coverage or single-high coverage this year, but the sample is small. San Francisco’s stud tight end had 0.22 targets per route run and 2.37 Y/RR versus man and 0.23 targets per route run and 3.09 Y/RR against single-high coverage in 2024 and 0.20 and 2.76 against man and 0.22 and 2.78 against single-high coverage in 2023.
Jauan Jennings has missed games and played through injuries this year. Perhaps he’s getting healthier. Jennings has logged precisely seven targets and four receptions in back-to-back games, and his 45 receiving yards against Houston’s talented defense in Week 8 were his second-most in a game this season.
Even in a down and injury-marred season, Jennings has an eye-catching 0.35 targets per route run against man coverage and 0.25 targets per route run against single-high coverage this season. Jennings is an appealing low-salary wide receiver, with the WR6 value score at DraftKings.
Core Studs
- Christian McCaffrey is the RB1 at DraftKings and the RB2 at FanDuel, with the RB1 value score at both sites. CMC had a down week against Houston’s elite defense last week, but the Giants are a bounce-back matchup. The G-Men have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points per game (25.8) and the seventh-most FanDuel points per game (22.4) to running backs this season. Even with last week’s dud, CMC is averaging 131.1 scrimmage yards per game, 7.0 receptions per game and has splashed paydirt six times in eight games this year.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected as the WR3 at both DFS providers this week. Among 66 wideouts with at least 150 routes this season, the Sun God is fifth in target share (29.4%), fifth in targets per route run (0.30), tied for fourth in receptions (50 at 7.1 per game), eighth in receiving yards per game (76.9), third in yards per route run and first in receiving touchdowns (seven).
- D’Andre Swift is the RB8 at both sites, tying for the RB5 value score at DraftKings, and sporting the RB2 value score at FanDuel. He didn’t practice on Wednesday because of a groin injury, but he didn’t practice last Wednesday, either. Since Week 6, Swift has rattled off 92.3 rushing yards per game, 6.30 yards per carry, an 11.4% explosive run rate, two rushing touchdowns, 1.7 receptions per game, 35.7 receiving yards per game, 22.5 DraftKings points per game and 21.6 FanDuel points per game. He’s in an eruption spot against the Bengals. Running backs have smashed Cincinnati for the most DraftKings points per game (35.1) and FanDuel points per game (30.9).
Value Plays/Punts
- Alec Pierce is a home-run hitter, with a 45.4% air yards share, 3.0 receptions per game, 64.3 receiving yards per game, 2.37 Y/RR, 12.06 yards per target and 21.44 yards per reception. Wideouts have barbecued the Steelers for the second-most DraftKings points per game (40.8) and the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (31.3).
- Chimere Dike has taken off in two games with interim head coach Mike McCoy. In the previous two weeks, Dike had a 76.8% route participation rate, 10.9-yard aDOT, 24.4% air yards share, 16.7% target share, 6.0 targets per game, 5.5 receptions per game, 81.5 receiving yards per game, 2.59 Y/RR and one receiving touchdown.
- The Texans have an elite defense. According to Pro Football Reference, Houston is tied for the fifth-fewest yards allowed per play (4.8), tied for fifth in turnovers forced (11) and has 16 sacks in seven games. Meanwhile, Bo Nix has stark home-road splits, struggling on the road. In 13 career road contests, Nix has averaged only 195.8 passing yards per game, thrown five interceptions and taken 18 sacks. The Texans are easily the most appealing sub-$3,000 salary defense on DraftKings and sub-$4,000 defense on FanDuel.
Week 9 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Rashee Rice: 67.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
The Bills have played two-high coverage at the seventh-highest rate (57.1%) this season. Rice has eviscerated two-high coverage, with 0.48 targets per route run and 3.92 Y/RR against it this year, 0.28 and 3.66 in 2024 and 0.26 and 2.46 in his rookie season in 2023. We project Rice to record 72.2 receiving yards this week against the Bills.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 75.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
The Vikings have played two-high coverage at the highest rate (69.4%) this season. ARSB has barbecued two-high coverage to the tune of 0.33 targets per route run and 3.23 Y/RR this year. The Sun God also had 0.29 targets per route run and 2.37 Y/RR against two-high coverage in 2024 and 0.31 and 2.89 in 2023. Finally, according to StatHead, St. Brown has smoked Brian Flores’s defenses, torching them for 77, 106, 112 and 144 receiving yards in four meetings with the Vikings in the previous two years.
Alec Pierce: 42.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Pierce is tailor-made to destroy Pittsburgh’s coverage tendencies. The Steelers have played man coverage at the fifth-highest rate (37.4%) and single-high coverage at the third-highest rate (63.0%) this season. Pierce has 0.29 targets per route run and 2.85 Y/RR against man and 0.33 and 4.30 against single-high coverage this year, operating on the same page as Daniel Jones. We project Pierce to have 47.0 receiving yards against Pittsburgh.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
