The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes like we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
This week, we have a 10-game slate due to bye weeks. Between bye weeks and injuries, we have to dig a little deep for the value plays. Let’s get to it.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 5
Quarterbacks
In three games played, Justin Fields has finished as the QB2, QB35 and QB4. For clarity, the QB35 finish was the game he left early due to a concussion. That said, he was struggling before that. However, he returned two games later and earned a QB4 finish with 29.5 DraftKings points.
This week, the Cowboys visit the Jets. The Cowboys’ defense exists on paper, but not on the field. They allow the most fantasy points to the position, including an average of 309.3 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game. Fields also offers upside as a rusher, and a rushing touchdown is certainly viable in this game.
Fields is currently the QB11 on the slate in salary, but he is the QB5 in fantasy points per game. While volatile, his salary is well below his expected production based on the matchup. Fields can be used in both cash games and GPP contests this week.
In his first start, Jaxson Dart finished the week as the QB11. He threw for just 111 yards and one score (for what it’s worth, he should have had another touchdown had Wan’Dale Robinson not dropped it in the end zone). However, he added another 54 yards on the ground with an additional score.
If there is an acclimation game for Dart’s passing, the Saints qualify as viable. They are allowing the fifth-most fantasy production to quarterbacks, including an average of 221 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per contest.
Dart has stacking options, but they are far from reliable with Malik Nabers sidelined with injury. Therefore, he is better utilized solo and in cash games but can be used in GPP contests.
Running Backs
J.K. Dobbins is quietly the RB16 in fantasy points per game, while accruing three touchdowns over four games. He is currently boasting 5.7 yards per carry on 57 total carries and has the fifth-most rushing yards at the running back position.
The Eagles’ pass defense is brutal, which will be a challenge for players like Courtland Sutton, but it lends to the run game and short average depth of target (aDOT) throws. Dobbins is a capable pass-catcher who has not been utilized in that manner this season. It would not be surprising to see an uptick in this area of his production this week in a game that pits two good defenses against each other.
While stifling against the wide receiver position, the Eagles are allowing the 11th-most points to running backs. Dobbins is a good bet for production, outweighing cost in this matchup. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests as an RB2.
Chuba Hubbard is doubtful to play this weekend, elevating Rico Dowdle to an enhanced role. For clarity, Dowdle, while handling backup duties, has 103 scrimmage yards and one score to his name through four games. Last season, he finished with 1,079 rushing yards, 249 receiving yards and five total touchdowns.
Dowdle lacks the receiving appeal typically needed on DraftKings, making him more attractive in FanDuel’s scoring system, and he makes up for it in potential volume this week.
The Dolphins allow the seventh-most fantasy points to the position, including 110 yards on the ground to complement 53 through the air. Dowdle becomes the starter with Hubbard ruled out and should have the volume alone to exceed cost. He can be used in both GPP and cash contests.
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman Jr. is currently averaging just over a 24% target share this season. He has finished as a WR13 or better in two out of four weeks this season. He is the WR13 overall in fantasy points per game. Both in managed leagues and in DFS/betting, Pittman remains an underrated value. That trend continues this week at DraftKings.
Through four weeks, Pittman is averaging 7.25 targets and 58.5 receiving yards per game and has hauled in three scores. The Raiders are allowing the third-most fantasy points to the receiver position.
Pittman is a sneaky play based on price point versus matchup this week, and allows for some more expensive players in lineups. He can be rostered in both cash and GPPs this week (GPP preferred).
This season has shown two sides to Marvin Harrison Jr., once lauded as a generational prospect. He has two weeks as a high-end WR2 and two outside of the top 50 at the position. Harrison is drawing 6.75 targets and 13 yards per reception with two scores. He is also averaging a 20% target share.
The peripherals are good this week against a Titans defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the receiver position and is susceptible to perimeter receivers depending on coverage. With the expected volume, Harrison profiles as a better play than his salary for this contest. He can be used in both cash games and GPP contests, and can be stacked with Kyler Murray without breaking the salary bank.
Tight Ends
It is a little ugly in the tight end streets this week. Managers are going to have to either pay up for more solid producers or dumpster dive for statistical potential and probability. Dalton Schultz is old, slow and breaks tackles at a lower rate than fortune cookies providing meaningful fortunes.
Schultz has zero broken tackles and averages 2.8 yards after contact per reception. I know, none of this is selling him for this slate, but there is some good stuff to factor in as well. He currently has the 12th-most targets at the position, averaging 5.25 per game. Baltimore represents a solid opponent for tight ends, allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to the position.
In managed seasonal leagues, Schultz would represent a streaming candidate this week based on volume. In DFS, he is undervalued based on salary. He is only recommended in GPP contests, and preferably for multi-lineup users who are praying for a score.
Keeping with the same idea, looking for potential streamers this week, Tommy Tremble has to be mentioned. He had a 22% target share last week and turned that into 42 yards and a score. With Ja’Tavion Sanders still sidelined due to an ankle injury, Tremble should maintain the targets, if not see a small uptick, considering the matchup.
The Dolphins are allowing the third-most fantasy production to the position. If we know that, so does the coaching staff. Game-planning to keep Tremble’s usage up is most likely on their radar.
As stated before, it is either pay up or dumpster dive based on cost versus matchup when it comes to the tight end position this week. Tremble represents upside, but is not a locked-in option this week. I’m leaning towards him being better than salary and not rostered enough to make an impact, making him a value prospect in GPP contests.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
