New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings
| Drake Maye | QB | QB1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | RB2/3 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | RB3/4 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WR2/3 |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | WR5 |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | WR5 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | TE1 |
Bills Players & Weekly Rankings
| Josh Allen | QB | QB1 |
| James Cook | RB | RB1 |
| Ray Davis | RB | RB5 |
| Ty Johnson | RB | RB5 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | WR3/4 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR4 |
| Joshua Palmer | WR | WR5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Last week, Rhamondre Stevenson still led the way with a 58.3% snap share, a 50% route share, and tied TreVeyon Henderson with two red zone rushing attempts. Outside of Week 3, Stevenson has averaged 11.6 touches and 70 total yards while seeing five of the 12 running back red zone rushing attempts. Among 43 qualifying backs, Stevenson is 14th in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. It looks like it’ll be tough for Henderson to unseat him if he keeps playing this well. Stevenson should have a productive day in Week 5 against a Bills’ run defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Last week was the ramp-up game for Stefon Diggs. He had a season-high 77.3% route share with a 38.9% target share, a 63.9% air-yard share, 101 receiving yards (5.94 yards per route run), and a 41.7% first-read share. Those are all simply ridiculous numbers. I don’t expect Diggs to keep producing like that, but he’s now a full-time player in the Patriots’ offense and the team’s WR1. He has two red zone targets this season, and both came in last week’s game. Diggs is a strong play this week against his former team, which has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Dalton Kincaid remains stuck in a part-time role for Buffalo with a 53.6-58.1% route share weekly. Kincaid has a 14.6% target share, 2.24 yards per route run (44.8 receiving yards per game), and a 16.5% first-read share. Kincaid is the TE7 fantasy points per game thanks to his three scores this season. His high leverage usage has been nice, though. He has two deep targets and five red zone looks (second-best among tight ends). He could easily be a TE1 again this week against a Patriots defense that has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Well, so much for TreVeyon Henderson taking over the Patriots’ backfield last week. He had a 29.2% snap rate with seven of the 22 running back rushing attempts and a 22.7% route share (11.1% target share). He finished with nine touches and 46 total yards. The touchdown he had saved his day. Henderson had two red zone rushing attempts, which tied Antonio Gibson and Rhamondre Stevenson. Henderson is going to have to play better to unseat Stevenson. I’m wondering when the right time to press the panic button for Henderson is, because he hasn’t been efficient with his touches all year. Among 43 qualifying backs, Henderson ranks 40th in explosive run rate, 39th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 43rd in yards after contact per attempt. At this point, he’s just a low-end flex play with a good matchup. The Bills have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Khalil Shakir is the WR31 in fantasy points per game with three top 30 wide receiver finishes (WR26, WR25, WR15). Shakir has four red zone targets (17th among wideouts) with two scores this year. He has a 14.6% target share, 1.81 yards per route run (47.5 receiving yards per game), and a 15.2% first-read share. Shakir is a solid flex play this week against a Patriots secondary that has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Since Week 2, Keon Coleman hasn’t surpassed 45 receiving yards in any game. During those three games, he has had only one red zone target. Over the last three games, Coleman has a 14.3% target share, a 29.5% air-yard share, 1.49 yards per route run (30.3 receiving yards per game), and a 20.8% first-read share (leads the team). Coleman is a tough player to trust, but he has a nice matchup and is flex viable this week. The Patriots have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Last week, Christian Gonzalez didn’t shadow Tetairoa McMillan, so I don’t think he’ll shadow Coleman in Week 5.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Hunter Henry is the TE3 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in deep targets and first in red zone targets at the position. Henry has been a TE1 in each of his past two games (TE1, TE10). He has double-digit PPR points in three of four games this season. Henry has a 19.4% target share, 1.89 yards per route run (51 receiving yards per game), and a 21.7% first-read share. With the state of the position, you’re starting him this week, but I don’t know how you feel good about it. The Bills have allowed the fewest receiving yards and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
**Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Keon Coleman were the only Bills’ receiving options to surpass a 50% route share last week. The Patriots are also splitting up the receiving work with only Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry eclipsing a 70% route share last week.**
SF vs. LAR | MIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. BAL | LV vs. IND | MIA vs. CAR | DEN vs. PHI | NYG vs. NO | DAL vs. NYJ | TEN vs. ARI | TB vs. SEA | DET vs. CIN | WAS vs. LAC | NE vs. BUF | KC vs. JAC
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB | QB1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | RB3/4 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | RB4 |
| Brashard Smith | RB | RB3/4 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | WR2 |
| Hollywood Brown | WR | WR4 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | WR4/5 |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | WR5 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | TE1/2 |
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | QB2 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | RB2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | RB3/4 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | WR2/3 |
| Travis Hunter | WR | WR4 |
| Dyami Brown | WR | WR5 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Xavier Worthy made his return to the field last week, and he turned in a WR16 finish for the week. Worthy had a 62.5% route share, a 21.6% target share, 83 receiving yards (3.32 yards per route run), and a 27.6% first-read share. He even kicked in two carries and 38 rushing yards on the ground. He should have another strong day in Week 5 against a secondary that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Brashard Smith is coming off a game in which he saw a season-high 26% snap rate with seven touches and 36 total yards. Smith had a 17.5% route share and 10.8% target share. He was targeted on four of his seven routes. The team has talked about getting him more involved moving forward. If you’re DESPERATE for a flex play this week, he’s in play. Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards, the eighth-highest yards per reception, and two scores (third-most, tied) to running backs.
Travis Kelce is the TE13 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weekly finishes this season (TE8, TE10). He has one deep target and three red zone targets. He looks like a shell of his former self with a 15.5% target share, 45.5 receiving yards per game (1.47 yards per route run), and a 17.9% first-read share. He could post another low-end TE1 finish this week against a defense that has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards and the 12th-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Trevor Lawrence has been abysmal this season as the QB31 in fantasy points per game. He has one QB1 weekly finish and has finished QB23 or lower in every other game. Among 38 qualifying passers, he is 30th in yards per attempt, 21st in passing yards per game, 17th in highly accurate throw rate, and he doesn’t have a hero throw this season. Lawrence is headed for another down game against a pass defense that has held quarterbacks to the 13th-fewest yards per attempt, the tenth-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns.
Travis Etienne is the RB10 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.8 touches and 106.5 total yards. He ranks 20th in snap share, 18th in opportunity share, and seventh in red zone touches among running backs. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks fifth-best in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Etienne will have uphill sledding this week, but he’ll see plenty of volume to hopefully outkick the tough matchup. Still, don’t expect a ceiling performance in Week 5, though. Kansas City has allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate and the sixth-lowest missed tackles rate.
Isaiah Pacheco has had such a sad season to date. Last week, it got worse as his snap share dipped to 37%. Yes, he scored a touchdown, and that saved his fantasy day, but his candle is dimming. He’s been barely flex-worthy this season, averaging 9.5 touches and 36.1 total yards. I don’t see his volume outlook improving in Week 5 in a bad matchup. Pacheco is droppable at this point. Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, and the second-lowest missed tackle rate.
Bhayshul Tuten is a high-end handcuff only. He has played 17.1-25.4% of the snaps over the last three games, averaging only seven touches and 39 total yards. This isn’t enough volume to consider plugging him into a lineup. Even if you wanted to go out on a limb this week with Tuten, the matchup is rough. Kansas City has allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate and the sixth-lowest missed tackles rate, so expecting efficiency with limited volume is too tall an order.
Brian Thomas Jr. continues to disappoint this season as the WR46 in fantasy points per game. He has only one top-36 weekly wide receiver finish so far this season (WR31). Thomas Jr. has a 21.5% target share, a 36.3% air-yard share, 1.29 yards per route run (41 receiving yards per game), and a 25.9% first-read share. He’s a solid bet for volume, but I don’t think this is the breakout or bounce-back week. Kansas City has allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per target and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Travis Hunter has settled into a 61.3% route share over the last two games with a 9.9% target share and 8.2% first-read share. This isn’t anywhere near enough volume for a part-time receiver to become flex-worthy. The Jaguars need to pick a lane and play him as a full-time player on one side of the ball. Currently, they are attempting to play both sides of the fence quite poorly. Until this changes, Hunter is a weekly sit. He’s droppable if there’s a hot commodity on the waiver wire that can help your team moving forward.
Brenton Strange is the TE14 in fantasy points per game with one TE1 finish this season (TE7). He’s still looking for his first red zone or deep target this season. Strange has a 16% target share with 45.5 receiving yards per game (1.80 yards per route run) and a 15.7% first-read share. Strange isn’t on the streaming radar as Kansas City has allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
**Tyquan Thornton and Marquise Brown saw their route shares fall below 60% last week. With that volatility added to their playing time with the return of Xavier Worthy, they are better left on the bench this week.**
SF vs. LAR | MIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. BAL | LV vs. IND | MIA vs. CAR | DEN vs. PHI | NYG vs. NO | DAL vs. NYJ | TEN vs. ARI | TB vs. SEA | DET vs. CIN | WAS vs. LAC | NE vs. BUF | KC vs. JAC
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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
