I was 6-18 on my bold predictions entering Week 9. I didn’t light the world on fire last week. Still, I got one of my three predictions correct, running my ledger to 7-20, and improving my batting average to .259 in the process. It’s a great week for more bold predictions, and if I nail at least two of them, my season-long batting average will climb to a respectable .300.
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Week 10 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
Mark Andrews Will be a Top-10 TE in Half-PPR
Mark Andrews is ranked as the TE14 in the half-PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR) for this week. The ranking seems bullish at a glance. Andrews is only the TE18 in half-PPR points per game (7.6) this year.
However, in Lamar Jackson‘s five starts (Week 1 through Week 4 and Week 9), Andrews has finished tied for the TE49, TE55, TE2, TE20 and TE5. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Andrews has recorded the following stats in Jackson’s five starts:
- 63.1% route participation rate
- 8.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 14.9% air yards share
- 15.9% target share
- 0.21 targets per route run
- 20.7% first-read rate
- 17 receptions (3.4 per game)
- 150 receiving yards (30 per game)
- 4 touchdown receptions
- 4 end-zone targets
Jackson trusts his veteran tight end in scoring territory. Andrews is also a useful blitz-beating weapon against the blitz-heavy Vikings this week.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, Minnesota has the second-highest blitz rate (40.6%) this year. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Andrews has a 16.1% air yards share, 18.8% target share, 0.24 targets per route run, 1.92 yards per route run (YPRR) and two receiving touchdowns against blitzes in Jackson’s starts this season.
Andrews had a 25.2% air yards share, 20.1% target share, 0.27 targets per route run, 2.91 YPRR and five receiving touchdowns against the blitz last year. Andrews should excel this week and finish as a top-10 tight end in half-PPR formats.
Hot
Justin Herbert Won’t Finish as a Top-10 Quarterback
Justin Herbert is brilliantly guiding a pass-happy offense. According to nfelo, the Chargers are second in pass rate over expectations (+4.6%) this season. Herbert is currently the QB2 in total points (196.1) and tied for the QB4 in points per game (21.8).
Herbert has exceeded expectations this year. He also has a treasure trove of weapons, including Ladd McConkey, Oronde Gadsden, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston. The mix of skills between his pass-catching weapons gives him options at all levels of the field.
Unfortunately, injuries have ripped through the Chargers’ offensive line, and Joe Alt‘s season was cut short by an ankle injury. The injury was Alt’s second this year, providing gamers with on-off splits.
Justin Herbert with Joe Alt On/Off Field
This Season, Per @NextGenStatsAlt On Field
o 8.0 pass yds/att, 9 pass TD, 2 INT, 107.2 passer rating, 40.5 pressure pct, 0.24 EPA/dropbackAlt Off Field
o 6.7 pass yds/att, 7 pass TD, 5 INT, 88.6 passer rating, 45.5 pressure pct,…— Tony Holzman-Escareno (@FrontOfficeNFL) October 24, 2025
According to Rich Hirbar’s worksheet, Herbert has only 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 6.9 air yards per attempt, a 4.1% touchdown rate and 2.9% interception rate on 193 dropbacks without Alt. The Steelers just threw cold water on Daniel Jones, and they’ll likely pose problems for Los Angeles’ banged-up offensive line this week. Thus, Herbert isn’t a no-brainer fantasy starter this week and should be viewed as a fringe starter in 10- and 12-team leagues, despite a QB4 slot in the ECR.
Atomic
Jaylin Lane Will Outscore Deebo Samuel
Terry McLaurin is trending toward missing this week’s game with a quad injury. Presumably, Deebo Samuel is Washington’s top passing-game weapon without McLaurin. However, Samuel’s coverage splits are suboptimal for this week.
The Lions are third in man-coverage rate (39.1%) and seventh in single-high coverage (58%) this season. The following table has Samuel’s numbers against those coverages.
Samuel has never excelled against man coverage, and his work against single-high coverage has been in decline since 2022. Nevertheless, Samuel is the WR22 in half-PPR ECR. Samuel should rank much lower.
Meanwhile, Jaylin Lane is the WR59. The rookie is a sneaky dart throw in deeper leagues. Lane had a 57.1% route participation rate, 60% slot rate, five targets, three receptions and 29 receiving yards last week. Washington’s season is basically cooked after losing Jayden Daniels to a serious elbow injury last week, and it would make sense for them to increase Lane’s playing time.
Lane has an ideal matchup for an uptick in playing time this week. The Lions have faced the 12th-highest slot target share (32.9%) this season and the fourth-highest slot target share (40.8%) since Week 6. Finally, Lane has 0.22 targets per route run and 2.46 YPRR on 46 routes against man coverage this year and 0.20 targets per route run and 1.33 YPRR against single-high coverage. As a result, I expect Lane to outscore Samuel in half-PPR formats this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
