We’ve smashed starts and raced go-karts all season. Okay, maybe we haven’t all been ripping around in go-karts, but we’ve definitely been smashing starts. Last week, we had one of our best weeks of the season. Highlighted by Dalton Schultz finishing as the TE4, let’s keep taking our shots and building off this success.
Week 10’s selections were James Cook (RB31), Rome Odunze (WR10), Rico Dowdle (RB14), Jared Goff (QB5), and Dalton Schultz (TE4). James Cook really weighed us down on our hunt for the elusive five-out-of-five smash burger. This week, I have five more names for you, all in position to have week-winning fantasy performances. My name is Ellis Johnson, and these are your Week 11 Smash Starts.
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Fantasy Football Smash Starts: Week 11
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
The Commanders might have the worst secondary in the league. Over their last four games, they have allowed an average of 303 passing yards and 3.2 passing touchdowns per game. This has correlated to 218.5 yards and 1.8 receiving touchdowns for opposing wideouts over that span. Considering Jaylen Waddle is by far the most talented receiver on the Dolphins’ roster, there will be plenty of opportunities for him to come through with a big performance.
This game is in Madrid, which could add another dynamic to this matchup. However, on paper, neither defense should be able to stop the opposing offenses. Waddle has topped 80 receiving yards in five of his last six games and scored three touchdowns over that span. Against this Commanders’ defense, even Tua Tagovailoa should be able to air it out all game. Waddle is primed to start your Sunday morning off with a bang.
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
After we saw Tyler Allgeier score both rushing touchdowns last week in Germany, many fantasy managers have started asking questions about Bijan’s work. As a result, I thought this was the perfect time to break down the star back in a favourable matchup. Despite Allgeier’s involvement, Bijan has played two of his three highest percentages of snaps over his last two games (96% and 86%). One of the main reasons for the elevated snaps is his ability to move around the formation. Over the last two weeks, he has been spread out wide for plays, which is typically a great sign for fantasy.
People also believe that Allgeier is taking over the redzone work. Although the downhill runner does have more carries in the red zone, both backs have 22 red zone touches on the season. The presence of Allgeier certainly limits the total upside of Bijan, but much like Jahmyr Gibbs, he remains the focal point of this team and is heavily involved.
This week, they face the Panthers, who shut out the Falcons back in Week 3. After an overtime loss to the Colts last week, the Falcons will be hungry for revenge and to return to the win column. Over their last four games, the Panthers have allowed an average of 123 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. I am hoping we see a vintage Bijan performance, and I expect he will find the end zone for the first time in three weeks.
DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)
The Eagles need to be a pass-first team. Despite having Saquon Barkley and a solid offensive this has not been a productive rushing unit. What is even more concerning is that they are 21st in rushing yards per game, while averaging the 10th most rushing attempts per game. Considering they have paid two premier receivers, the switch should be a no-brainer.
Unfortunately, we continue to see the Eagles commit to their rushing game. However, this week, they may be forced to pass. The Detroit Lions are a great opponent for this Eagles team, as their offense is always dangerous and their run defense is electric. Over their last four games, they have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs with an average of 12.2 points per game.
On the other hand, they are allowing the sixth most passing touchdowns and the eighth most fantasy points to opposing receivers. This season, Smith has been the primary pass catcher, supplanting A.J. Brown. I expect they’ll be forced to keep up on the scoreboard, and Smith should be the one to take advantage of it.
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)
It’s been yet another season of Jacobs being an outstanding back for fantasy. Scoring a touchdown in every game but one this season, he has arguably been one of the most consistent fantasy players across all positions.
Despite only topping four yards per carry three times this season, his workload and usage in the red zone are unmatched. This week, he takes on the New York Giants, who have allowed an average of 151 rushing yards and a score to the RB position over their last four games. Last week, the Bears had 169 rushing yards against the Giants, despite being down Cam Skattebo. Why the Giants have not been able to stop the run despite all the stars they have on defense, is one of the great mysteries this season.
Coming off back-to-back home losses, the Packers desperately need to get back in the win column. This is a perfect get-right game, against a team that they should be able to control possession right from the opening whistle. This all sounds great for Jacobs, but there is one more stat I want to bring to your attention. The Giants are allowing the second-most fantasy points to RBs in the red zone over those weeks. With Jacobs’ incredible redzone success rate, this is the definition of a smash start.
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
Last week, we saw Aaron Jones play the most snaps he has all season, hitting 71%. In contrast, we saw Jordan Mason play his fewest snaps (25%) of the season. In fact, since Jones’ return from injury three weeks ago, Mason has finished with his two lowest snap shares and rushing attempts over that span. If Jones continues to pull away from Mason as the lead back on this offense, he could become a very valuable fantasy player down the stretch.
This week, the Vikings get a rematch with the Bears. When they met in Week 1, the Vikings had a second-half comeback to stun the Bears at Soldier Field. Last week, the Bears allowed 169 rushing yards and 431 yards of total offense to the New York Giants. The week before that, the Bengals had nearly 500 yards of offense against them. All this to say, this is a great matchup for Jones at home.
Since we are talking about the Vikings and we are coming down the stretch for the fantasy season, I want to address their schedule. After the Bears this week, they face the Packers and Seahawks, two of the premier defenses against the run. However, in Weeks 14, 15, and 16, they face the Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants. Those defenses are respectively allowing the eighth, fifth, and third most fantasy points to the RB position. Unfortunately, they face the Lions in Week 16, but the first step to winning a championship is making the championship. With trade deadlines coming up, Jones could be a great target for a playoff run.
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