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Players to Sell
Derrick Henry powered the ground game, rushing 19 times for 119 yards (6.3 YPC), generating +36 rushing yards over expected — his most in a game since Week 1 — and 118 of those yards came after contact, marking the fifth-highest total by a running back this season (next gen stats). Henry faced light boxes on 26% of his carries, his highest rate of the year, and ripped off 66 yards on five such attempts. He was stuffed twice at the goal line, leaving fantasy managers wanting more, but his efficiency and power were back on full display. Note that his playoff schedule is tougher. Something to file away before the fantasy football trade deadline. Weeks 16-17 are Pats/Packers.
The Pats matchup is the one I am most concerned about given they have not allowed any RB to go over 50 rushing yards. And since Henny is not used as a receiver, he can’t take advantage of their defense’s weakness. Being nit-picky, but something to keep top of mind regarding Henry in trades.
Hall erupted for 147 yards and two scores, even throwing a TD pass back in Week 8, presenting a perfect sell-high spot. His upcoming schedule (CLE, NE) is a gauntlet, and the Jets offense remains volatile. Weeks 15-16 are both on the road, and Week 17 is the Pats. If he stays in New York, the bust risk is high; if he’s traded, role potentially uncertain. Flip him now for a locked-in asset before regression hits. Again…the Bengals defense is TERRIBLE (see Bears game).
Brown missed Week 8 and could return post-bye, but the Eagles’ passing volatility creates weekly boom-or-bust outcomes. With DeVonta Smith thriving and Saquon Barkley starting to heat up, target volume may normalize lower. His name still commands WR1 trade value despite the fact that Smith has been the more productive WR this season. Sell into that brand before Philadelphia leans heavier on the run.
After two strong weeks – you “could” get a ton for DeVonta Smith. A.J. Brown should return after the bye week (although hamstring injuries can be tricky). Or even trading AJB should still be on your radar. Eagles offense was fine on Sunday without jamming him targets.
And as I think about this situation more…shouldn’t Smith be valued over AJB?
This season, Smith is PFF’s 9th-highest graded WR. Brown is 23rd. Through 7 games they have nearly identical target shares. However Smith has been much more efficient. Has more yards/catches by a substantial margin. Smith is averaging 2.24 yards per route. Career high.
I always talk about No. 2 WRs being undervalued…and Smith feels like that guy because of AJB’s alpha-ness. But given the way AJB has carried him self this season, I think Smith might finish this season as the Eagles No. 1 WR. We have seen teams phase out alphas post bye weeks.
And don’t forget that Brown still needs to overcome this hamstring…which might be a contributing factor to his lack of efficiency in 2025.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
Marvin Harrison Jr. delivered a signature performance, catching 7 (career-high) of 10 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown, including 5 receptions for 61 yards and the score against DaRon Bland. Harrison roasted Bland repeatedly, and per Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys corner allowed 9 receptions for 144 yards, the third-most by any defender in a game this season. Last week, I mentioned I didn’t think it was going to happen with Marv Jr. with Kyler Murray as his QB. Also, not in love with the start of the postseason schedule either for Arizona (HOU, ATL), but Cincy in Week 17 might be all that matters. Last week wasn’t the week to sell. Dallas is the gift that keeps on giving, and that was proved true on MNF. But I’m not nearly as convinced Murray is going to return as the starter. Arizona’s offense has been better with Brissett. But Jonathan Gannon said post-game that Murray will be the starting quarterback when he returns. Ergo, the offense could regress from what we have seen with Brissett. Unfortunately, that makes MHJ a sell high. I think you can wait this week, though, before shipping him off just to gather more info on Murray’s status for Week 10. But if we get more news about Brissett being the starter the rest of the way…that’s a plus for this offense.
With Oronde Gadsden emerging and Ladd McConkey reclaiming WR1 status…QJ is will be tough to trust and difficult for fantasy managers to deal with. It’s now 3 games since his injury that his targets have tanked (sub-18% target shares).
Something has also happened to Keenan Allen, who is entering a similar TD or bust territory with his targets falling off in the last two contests. We know that these Chargers WRs have weekly upside. They play Dallas in Week 16. Even if QJ/Allen rides your bench or is a boom/bust option until Week 16…that one game alone could make them worth targeting/rostering as I explained last week. That being said…Johnston is still PFF’s 35th-lowest graded WR this season. The lowest among the top-3 Bolts WRs.
Long story short – all these Chargers WRs/TEs have tremendously weekly upside. If somebody is undervaluing that week-winning potential. I’d take advantage. Like we saw with QJ’s injury…just takes one guy to miss for the production floodgates to open for the other Chargers pass-catchers. But if the volatile nature of QJ is too much – or he just can’t be dealt then I think you have to hold him. A very price-dependent player that should be traded a lot. I think there’s a price where QJ and/or Allen is serviceable, but they project to be very boom-or-bust. When the Chargers get Omarion Hampton back they could lean on the ground game more. Also FWIW, the Chargers ROS for WRs in near the bottom of the league (playoffs withstanding of course).
Layer in the OL injuries with Joe Alt – and the offense becomes more of an issue. Alt will miss the rest of the season with his ankle injury. Bobby Hart also got hurt versus the Titans. The OL injuries are a big concern for Quentin Johnston – given he runs the most deep/go routes. Less time makes it more likely Herbert goes to his quick outlets – ie, his slot WRs and his tight end who can create yards after the catch. So, although I opened this section a bit pessimistic on Allen…he leads the Chargers in targets Weeks 4-7 when Joe Alt played just 10 snaps. We might see his targets bounce back – so I think he’s a hold if you didn’t already trade him away. QJ very much remains the sell-high after the TD grab. Schedule is tough over the next four weeks for WRs and bottom-7 ROS.
Over the next four games…the Chargers have the worst schedule for WRs in the NFL.
Making his first NFL start, seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai was unstoppable, rushing 26 times for 176 yards (6.8 YPC) and adding 3 receptions for 22 yards on 5 targets, while playing 75% of the offensive snaps. He forced six missed tackles and generated 123 rushing yards after contact, both career highs. According to Next Gen Stats, Monangai was hit behind the line of scrimmage on only 11.5% of his carries (3 times) — the lowest rate by any running back with 20+ carries this season. His combination of vision, balance, and burst powered a Bears offense that looked confident and physical throughout.
Who knows when D’Andre Swift will return after he failed to practice at all last week with a groin injury. I thought maybe that Monangai would be a perfect “sell-high” candidate, but waiver wire guys are so hard to trade for value that matches their production. If you can get a good deal – take it. I think you just hold and ride it out, as the schedule is tough in the playoffs (and after the Giants at home. The Bears have a tougher schedule for RBs in the playoffs: CLE, GB, and SF. Eventually, you will need to get off this ride. Maybe not now…but something to keep in mind if somebody offers Swift to you in a trade.
And although I’ve admitted that Swift has played better this season – returning from an injury doesn’t inspire me with confidence, especially if it’s a true 50/50 split versus a 1A/1B Bears’ backfield.
Samuel handled his usual hybrid role, catching 5 of 6 targets for 41 yards (27% target share) and adding a 3-yard rush. His usage remains strong, though the quarterback change could limit red-zone opportunities. Looked better after coming off the injury report this past week.
Still, Samuel’s tendencies to fall off in the second halves of seasons – especially in what looks like a lost year for Washington – is concerning. Samuel has finished outside the top-45 fantasy WRs in three straight games…despite averaging over 5 targets/game.
The backfield continued to sputter. Alvin Kamara played 58 percent of the snaps, carrying six times for just 14 yards (lost a fumble) and catching one pass for three yards, while rookie Devin Neal played 40 percent and added 11 rushing yards plus one short reception. Neal handled the Saints’ only red-zone rushing attempt, but the pair split passing routes nearly 50-50. Taysom Hill ran four times for 30 yards — nearly all of which came on that single 29-yard burst in the first quarter — but otherwise had little impact.
The Saints RB1 continues to look like a shell of himself. Bottom-dwelling offense. And he has been adamant about not being traded, so he’s stuck on the Saints.
Kamara is PFF’s lowest graded RB this season.
No one has scored fewer points under expectation than Kamara. He should be RB15. He’s instead RB30.
Despite the chaos, Trevor Lawrence did just enough; completing 23 of 34 passes for 220 yards and an interception, while scoring two rushing touchdowns on designed runs near the goal line. He was steady but inefficient, with multiple red-zone trips bogging down due to penalties and missed execution.
The Jaguars have the worst schedule ROS for QBs. T-Law won’t score two rushing TDs every week and the WR room is in rough shape. Remains to be seen how much a boost Jakobi Meyers will provide to Lawrence – although it’s probably good for his WR fantasy value given the history of Liam Coen and slot WRs.
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