Fantasy Football NFL Air Yards Analysis & Takeaways (Week 11)

Analyzing NFL air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.

Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football. I hope you will join me every week during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.

NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool that is now freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 50 wide receivers from most to fewest air yards. From Justin Jefferson‘s 214 air yards all the way down to Jakobi Meyers‘ 34 air yards from this past week. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all these pieces of data together provides an opportunity for a quick review of this chart and yields a significant number of takeaways after Week 10. In this weekly piece of analysis, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this week’s dataset.

Week 10 Air Yards and Air Yards% Data

Top Takeaways From Week 10 Air Yards Data

Minnesota Vikings’ Wild Passing Game

Minnesota Vikings wide receivers, including Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, struggled in Week 10 against the Baltimore Ravens. Combined, they only had 72 receiving yards, even though Jefferson led the league with 214 air yards, and Addison was in the top 12 with 122. Despite quarterback J.J. McCarthy attempting 42 passes, Baltimore’s defense effectively neutralized the Vikings’ top wideouts. However, the usage says they should both have had massive games with so much volume and downfield attempts.

Jalen Nailor, on the other hand, was also in the top 20 in air yards (103) but finished with five receptions for 124 yards. How was Nailor able to get the accurate passes, and Jefferson and Addison didn’t? I can’t really tell you. But this is a McCarthy problem. He still has fewer than five starts on his resume and is still figuring things out. There may be some inaccurate, disappointing games. But with this much volume, when it hits, it’s going to hit big.

We Will Certainly Take This Version of Jaylen Waddle

It took a while, but everything finally clicked for the Miami Dolphins, for Tua Tagovailoa and for Jaylen Waddles against the Buffalo Bills. Without Tyreek Hill and any semblance of a tight end, Waddle should be smashing, and that’s exactly what he did in Week 10. Waddle had 86.2% of Miami’s air yards and a 33.3% target share. Those are league-winning numbers, but even if they go down significantly, Waddle should still perform well.

His seven targets to get 162 air yards were striking. Waddle averaging 23.1 yards in his average depth of target (aDOT) won’t happen every week, but should be counter-balanced by more targets, assuming some games where De’Von Achane doesn’t break the slate with 175 yards and two touchdowns. Miami is still not a good team, especially on defense. That means they will be airing it out quite a bit in the last third of the season. Waddle should be the biggest beneficiary.

Buy Darnell Mooney

While Drake London stole the spotlight in Berlin with 104 yards and three touchdowns, it was very interesting to compare London’s usage and volume with Darnell Mooney after the dust settled on the overtime game against Indianapolis. London and Mooney both had eight targets. They were within one air yard of each other, which means their target shares and air yard shares were identical. But London caught six balls for 104 yards and three scores, while Mooney caught one pass for 17 yards.

That, my friends, is what we call being supremely unlucky (or supremely lucky, if you’re London). Since he returned from injury, Mooney has been seeing targets and air yards, but doesn’t have many big results to show for it. Mooney is ninth in total aDOT this year, which would explain some of the lack of connection, but he also has 35 targets and has scored zero touchdowns in just parts of seven games. That should regress as the season moves along.

The Nico Collins Conundrum

No one wants to throw around the “quarterback controversy” words yet — and they shouldn’t — but Nico Collins didn’t have any games with C.J. Stroud this season that were anywhere close to what he was able to accomplish with Davis Mills against the Jaguars. Collins’ targets, air yards, receptions, yards and fantasy points were all season-highs on Sunday. Mills looked his way 15 times for 188 air yards.

Now, Collins had plenty of massive games with Stroud in 2023 and 2024. We shouldn’t be in a rush to replace Stroud at quarterback. Hopefully, what happened in the second half against Jacksonville is a wake-up call to the Houston offensive play-callers that this team has talented downfield threats, and they are routinely open. Stroud is not practicing as of Wednesday as he deals with his recovery from a concussion. If Mills is back under center for Week 11, he knows where to throw the ball. Collins is one of the best route-running deep threats this league can offer. With a little more accuracy from Mills, Collins could be looking at moving from a great game to a slate-breaking one.