Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Safe & Risky Picks (Week 10)

Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert ranks in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy football lineup in Week 10?

Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice

Week 10 Risky Fantasy Football Starts

Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Highest Rank: WR21
Lowest Rank: WR41

Keenan Allen has gone from a weekly safe volume play to a risky, low-upside Flex option in a matter of just a few weeks. Fantasy production ebbs and flows, and a couple of single-digit fantasy point outings wouldn’t be that concerning, considering that as recently as Week 7, we saw Allen with 11 receptions on 14 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown.

However, we haven’t just seen a downturn in fantasy production. We’ve also seen a major decrease in snaps. Between Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Allen, Allen had always been the one with the fewest amount of snaps, but they were fairly consistent. Over the past two weeks, he’s played fewer than 40% of snaps. We may be seeing a shift in the Chargers’ offense because that decrease in snaps does somewhat correlate with the increase for Oronde Gadsden and a slight shift towards more snaps for Tre’ Harris.

It seems the Chargers are shifting toward youth, and Allen is being left out in the cold. Pittsburgh is an excellent matchup, and you may need to play Allen as a high-upside Flex option with thin options around the league. However, there’s a high likelihood of another single-digit fantasy performance.

My Projected Finish: WR34

RJ Harvey (RB – DEN) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Highest Rank: RB21
Lowest Rank: RB33

J.K. Dobbins is still the lead back, and both snaps and carries indicate that. However, the lack of trust we saw earlier in the season with RJ Harvey has disappeared. He’s posted back-to-back top-12 performances. Over the past three games, Harvey has scored two touchdowns on the ground and three through the air. While his snaps haven’t increased, his usage has clearly changed.

Dobbins, on the other hand, hasn’t scored since Week 5. It’s difficult to trust this change in usage because Harvey is still playing well below 50% of the snaps, but perhaps it’s time we shift our view of his role. Players like Kareem Hunt and Zach Charbonnet have consistent fantasy relevance due to their touchdown equity and preferential treatment in the red zone.

Harvey’s success may have earned him a similar reliable role. With Dobbins as the lead back and the clear touchdown dependency, Harvey remains a risky play. However, with three top-12 finishes in PPR and finishing as the RB36 or better for the past six games, he’s a risky play that at least offers a modest floor and a high ceiling.

My Projected Finish: RB23

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB – NYG) vs. Chicago Bears

Highest Rank: RB22
Lowest Rank: RB27

Devin Singletary (RB – NYG) vs. Chicago Bears

Highest Rank: RB29
Lowest Rank: RB42

The rankings on this one are a bit perplexing. Tyrone Tracy Jr. started with a higher standard deviation before shifting to a narrower gap. Tracy has the highest overall rank and the least deviation of ranking compared to Devin Singletary, yet Singletary outsnapped and outproduced Tracy last week.

Perhaps rankers are a bit more optimistic about Tracy, given his 2024 success and an ideal matchup. Chicago is the favorite here with a fairly high point total. The game script could favor Tracy from a receiving perspective if the Giants are in catch-up mode.

However, Tracy’s job might be a little more volatile than people realize. In Week 9, Singletary was the more effective back. Tracy had five carries for 18 yards and three receptions on four targets for 19 yards, while Singletary had eight carries for 43 yards and two receptions on two targets for eight yards. Ultimately, we probably don’t trust either one of these backs, and Tracy is likely being overvalued.

My Projected Finish (Tracy): RB27

My Projected Finish (Singletary): RB31

More Risky Starts

Week 10 Safe Fantasy Football Starts

Josh Downs (WR – IND) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Highest Rank: WR34
Lowest Rank: WR40

My Projected Finish: WR38

Across every position, the Colts’ offense might be the safest group to start in general in the entire NFL. The Colts lead the league in average offensive points per game, are second only to Buffalo in average yards per game and, despite having the league’s top running back, they’re very balanced between passing and rushing.

Even in Daniel Jones‘ worst performance of the year, all Colts receivers had excellent days. Although the Colts’ offense is crowded, Josh Downs has been extremely reliable. Alec Pierce is the No. 2 WR in terms of snaps over Downs, but Downs has been more consistent from a fantasy perspective.

Downs has hit double-digit fantasy points in all but three games this season and has had between 11 and 16 fantasy points with three touchdowns in his last four active games. Downs doesn’t offer the same ceiling as Pierce or Michael Pittman, but he’s a very trustworthy option with a safe floor.

Troy Franklin (WR – DEN) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Highest Rank: WR28
Lowest Rank: WR35

We’re heading into Week 10, and with Troy Franklin at 64 targets on the season and Courtland Sutton at 62, we’re starting to question who is the actual No. 1 WR in this offense. Unlike the aforementioned Keenan Allen, Courtland Sutton is not seeing a diminished role.

Franklin has simply ascended and pushed his way ahead of the supplemental receivers Marvin Mims Jr. and Pat Bryant to the point where he has 28 targets and three touchdowns over the past three games. Franklin’s success is still tied to volume. When Bo Nix throws for fewer than 200 yards, the receptions simply aren’t enough to get Franklin past double-digit fantasy points.

However, for the most part, his floor has leveled out. He has the most upside of any Broncos receiver and the highest ceiling of the group. Franklin might actually be the most trustworthy option in the entire offense outside of Nix.

My Projected Finish: WR31

Parker Washington (WR – JAX) vs. Houston Texans

Highest Rank: WR34
Lowest Rank: WR43

The arrival of Jakobi Meyers in Jacksonville has put Parker Washington’s upside slightly into question. However, he’s still a very safe Flex play in Week 10. Washington is coming off a game with eight receptions on nine targets for 90 yards and dominated the most snaps.

Meyers’ presence is irrelevant this week with the injuries to Travis Hunter, Dyami Brown and Brian Thomas Jr. The only issue with Washington is a poor matchup versus the Texans, who have been incredibly stout across the board, but brutal against the pass. Still, pure volume should give Washington a nice floor. Washington has 19 targets over the past two games and had 11 targets in the prior matchup against Houston in Week 3.

My Projected Finish: WR34