Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert ranks in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy football lineup in Week 15?
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Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
Week 15 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
J.J. McCarthy (QB – MIN) @ Dallas Cowboys
- Highest Rank: QB13
- Lowest Rank: QB23
J.J. McCarthy is an extremely volatile option whose ceiling is a QB1 performance and whose floor is finishing below backup quarterbacks. He’s a boom-or-bust player, and there’s not much in between for him. The good news is that, for the most part, the games have been rather predictable.
Aside from one of his games with Chicago, he’s generally taken advantage of easy matchups against the pass and failed in difficult matchups. This week’s matchup against Dallas presents an excellent opportunity for him to build on his Week 14 success — three touchdowns and his first turnover-free performance of the year. Dallas’ defense has improved since the trade deadline, but quarterbacks average over two touchdowns a game against them. The improvement in Dallas’ defense has limited opposing running backs’ yardage.
Minnesota’s run game is struggling. It makes logical sense that this could be another multi-touchdown game for McCarthy. Fantasy managers can turn to McCarthy as a streaming option. Just be aware you’re in for 20 fantasy points or two.
My Projected Finish: QB17
Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE) @ Chicago Bears
- Highest Rank: WR34
- Lowest Rank: WR46
With Shedeur Sanders‘s breakout performance in Week 14, Jerry Jeudy had one of his best performances of the year, finishing as the WR12 in half-PPR scoring with three receptions on five targets for 76 yards and a touchdown.
The big question we have is: Can we trust Jeudy to repeat that level of performance? Sanders threw for 364 yards, but the distribution was very well balanced among Jeudy, Harold Fannin Jr. and both Cleveland running backs. While we’d like a stronger target share, Jeudy has at least separated himself from Cedric Tillman and Isaiah Bond.
Jeudy is an extremely risky start this week, but if you’re going to take a risk in any matchup, Chicago is absolutely one of the best targets. The wide receivers who thrived with touchdowns in recent weeks against Chicago have been receivers like Christian Watson, A.J. Brown and Jordan Addison — big-play receivers. Jeudy does fit that profile.
My Projected Finish: WR37
Los Angeles Chargers Receivers @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Highest Rank: WR20
- Lowest Rank: WR27
Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC)
- Highest Rank: WR37
- Lowest Rank: WR51
- Highest Rank: WR48
- Lowest Rank: WR54
Originally, I planned to focus on Quentin Johnston — since he has the most dramatic range of rankings — however, the same concept applies to all Chargers receivers. The Chargers’ offensive line is a mess, and they suffered yet another injury in Week 14. If the opposing defense has a legitimate pass rush, the line struggles to keep Justin Herbert upright or provide enough time to throw for volume.
As a result, the Chargers have pivoted to leaning on the ground game. Herbert completed just 12-of-26 attempts, and he has not surpassed 151 yards in any of the past three games. Any Chargers receiver is a liability, and this week they face an even more difficult matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.
We have multiple weeks of evidence that the only way that a Chargers receiver, or tight end for that matter, can have a productive fantasy day is via a touchdown. They are arguably the riskiest plays in fantasy football right now. Ladd McConkey is a Flex option based on name, but all the other pass-catchers are plummeting down rankings.
My Projected Finishes:
- McConkey: WR24
- Johnston: WR45
- Allen: WR51
More Risky Starts
Week 15 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Luther Burden (WR – CHI) vs. Cleveland Browns
- Highest Rank: WR31
- Lowest Rank: WR40
Rome Odunze is unlikely to play this week, and while we didn’t see a big performance from Luther Burden in Week 14, he still stepped up as the No. 1 WR. Burden had four receptions on six targets for 67 yards — modest, safe production in a difficult matchup against Green Bay. This week’s matchup against Cleveland is difficult, but, as the Titans showed us, Cleveland is not an impossible matchup.
Burden will have the opportunity to build on his volume and success this week. While his ceiling may not be extremely high, he at least gives us a solid baseline. You can count on him to be a good floor play. We also have the bonus of Chicago’s defense being so bad that the Titans can push the ball against Chicago and encourage decent pass volume.
My Projected Finish: WR34
Kareem Hunt (RB – KC) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Highest Rank: RB31
- Lowest Rank: RB36
Kareem Hunt is the most basic definition of a safe play. His floor and ceiling are essentially the same thing. Without Isiah Pacheco, Hunt was more than a safe play and consistently saw double-digit fantasy points. With Pacheco, the volume is split, which lowers Hunt’s ceiling. However, he’s had exactly nine half-PPR fantasy points in the past two matchups against Dallas and Houston, and has the unquestioned priority at the goal line.
Even in the most difficult matchups, Kansas City’s offense is strong enough to produce at least one goal-line opportunity. The Chargers have been tough overall, but they are far more difficult to attack through the air. Running backs have success against them and — most importantly for Hunt — touchdown opportunities.
My Projected Finish: RB36
Deebo Samuel (WR – WSH) vs. New York Giants
- Highest Rank: WR27
- Lowest Rank: WR32
This might feel counterintuitive because the return of Terry McLaurin has put a major damper on his fantasy production, but Samuel falls into the safe category this week due to the matchup against the New York Giants. Deebo Samuel has scored just 4.7 and 8.6 half-PPR fantasy points in his past two games, but those were games against Minnesota and Denver, respectively.
Denver has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and Minnesota has allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers. Despite the difficult matchups, Samuel is at least still seeing decent volume, and he’s not struggling with his targets. Additionally, we saw this matchup in Week 1. Samuel finished as the WR5 overall in half-PPR formats that week.
My Projected Finish: WR28
More Safe Starts
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