Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
- Waiver Wire Picks
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Baker Mayfield has been STRUGGLING as the QB31 in fantasy points per game since Week 7. Since Week 7, among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, Mayfield has ranked 42nd in yards per attempt, 34th in passing yards per game, 27th in highly accurate throw rate, and 32nd in catchable target rate. The Falcons and the return of Mike Evans could be the “get right” elixir that Mayfield desperately needs. Since Week 10, Atlanta has allowed the third-most passing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback.
Brock Purdy has one QB1 weekly finish this season, but he’ll add another one to that total this week. The Titans have been horrible at defending the pass, and I don’t see that changing this week. Among 44 qualifying passers, Purdy ranks 17th in yards per attempt, 14th in passing yards per game, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, and 24th in catchable target rate. I know none of that’s pretty, but Purdy should still crush this week. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the most passing yards per game, the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the sixth-most passing touchdowns (tied). Cook, Purdy. Cook.
Since Week 4, Dart has been the QB4 in fantasy points per game, averaging 7.4 rushing attempts and 42.1 rushing yards per game. Among 44 qualifying passers, he ranks 23rd in yards per attempt, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, 11th in catchable target rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. In his eight games played since Week 4, he has seven rushing touchdowns. Dart should light it up this week. Since Week 10, Washington has fielded a wretched pass defense, giving up the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the tenth-most passing yards per game, and the third-highest CPOE. During that span, they have also had the second-lowest pressure rate. Dart should carve this pass defense up downfield. Washington has allowed the third-highest deep ball completion rate and the second-highest passer rating on targets 20 yards or more this season.
Marcus Mariota will draw the start this week and could be Washington’s starter for the rest of the season. In his six starts this season, he has averaged 5.8 rushing attempts and 35.6 rushing yards with three QB1 outings in weekly scoring (QB6, QB9, QB3). Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 18th in yards per attempt, 26th in highly accurate throw rate, 29th in catchable target rate, and 11th in hero throw rate. Mariota could be a QB1 again this week against a weak Giants pass defense. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the 13th-most yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, the highest CPOE, and the 11th-most passing yards per game.
Trevor Lawrence has been settling in nicely with Liam Coen’s offense. Since Week 9, Lawrence has been the QB9 in fantasy points per game. He has finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring in four of his last six games. Since Week 9, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence has ranked ninth in yards per attempt, 14th in highly accurate throw rate, 12th in catchable target rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. He could easily post another QB1 outing this week. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the ninth-highest success rate per dropback, the ninth-highest EPA per dropback, and the 12th-highest passer rating.
Sam Darnold is the QB21 in fantasy points per game with six QB1 finishes in weekly scoring this season. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranks first in yards per attempt, third in highly accurate throw rate, 20th in catchable target rate, and third in hero throw rate. This week, he faces a Colts’ pass defense that, without Sauce Gardner for most of the last two weeks, has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing yards per game, and ranked 16th in CPOE. Darnold could easily be a QB1 again this week, especially when you consider Charvarius Ward is also on the IR now.
Everyone wrote him off, and he didn’t write back. Last week, J.J. McCarthy had a nice bounce-back game that hopefully serves as a building block for the rest of the season as the QB9 in weekly scoring. It was his second QB1 outing of the season. Last week, among 29 quarterbacks with at least ten dropbacks, McCarthy ranked 13th in yards per attempt, fourth in highly accurate throw rate, seventh in catchable target rate, and third in hero throw rate. McCarthy could be a QB1 again this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the second-most passing yards per game, the tenth-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest passer rating, and the eighth-highest CPOE. McCarthy will have to deal with a defense that, during that same span, has ranked fourth in pressure rate. If he can navigate pressure this week, he could stack another strong game.
Last week, C.J. Stroud started strong against the Chiefs before they turned up the blitz heat, and the Texans decided to take the air out of the ball and sit on a lead. As the QB29 in fantasy points per game with only two QB1 outings this season, I know that Stroud feels like a player that should never be in a fantasy lineup, but he could revisit QB1 land this week. Among 44 qualifying passers, Stroud ranks 20th in yards per attempt, 19th in passing yards per game, 32nd in highly accurate throw rate, 36th in catchable target rate, and 22nd in hero throw rate. The Arizona pass defense has been abysmal. Stroud isn’t playing great football, but he could cook this secondary this week. Since Week 10, Arizona has allowed the most yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, the highest success rate per dropback, and had the fourth-lowest pressure rate.
We must be living in the upside-down because Tyler Shough has finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring in three of his five NFL starts (QB12, QB12, QB6). I don’t think Shough’s two rushing touchdowns last week or his 55 rushing yards were replicable moving forward, but he has flashed a rushing floor with at least 18 rushing yards in each of his last three games. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Shough ranks 15th in yards per attempt, ninth in catchable target rate, 27th in highly accurate throw rate, and 13th in hero throw rate. Shough could post another QB1 performance this week. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the fifth-highest success rate per dropback, the sixth-most yards per attempt, and the seventh-highest CPOE.
Last week, Shedeur Sanders flashed the type of potential that I’ve known that he has. He was the QB2 for the week behind only Josh Allen as he finished with 364 passing yards, three passing scores, 8.7 yards per attempt, 29 rushing yards, and a rushing score. Last week, among 29 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked sixth in yards per attempt, tenth in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in hero throw rate. It was amazing to watch. This week, he has a chance to stack another nice game and prove he should be the Browns’ answer at quarterback for 2026. Since Week 10, Chicago has had the seventh-lowest pressure rate while giving up the tenth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the 13th-highest CPOE, and ranking 19th in passing yards per game. Sanders is a QB2 that could easily be a QB1 again this week.
Sit’em
In his four starts this season, Cousins has finished higher than QB22 in weekly scoring only once. He has zero games with more than 240 passing yards and only one outing with multiple passing touchdowns. Among 44 qualifying passers, he ranks 37th in yards per attempt, 40th in passer rating, 27th in hero throw rate, and 43rd in fantasy points per dropback. Cousins could surprise this week and return strong QB2 numbers. The Bucs’ pass defense has been a bottom-of-the-barrel operation. Since Week 10, they have allowed the second-most yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing yards per game, the 12th-highest CPOE, and the third-highest success rate per dropback.
Bo Nix has remained insanely volatile this season as the QB9 in fantasy points per game. His ridiculous outing in Week 7 is covering up a ton of sins for his overall season numbers. Nix hasn’t finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring since Week 8. I will say that his per-dropback numbers since Week 9 have been surprising. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, while he has ranked 31st in yards per attempt and 31st in passer rating, Nix has also ranked 12th in highly accurate throw rate, eighth in catchable target rate, and 15th in hero throw rate. Nix is best viewed as a QB2 this week. Since Week 10, Green Bay has remained a strong pass defense, allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards per game, the 14th-lowest passer rating, the 11th-lowest success rate per dropback, and logging the sixth-highest pressure rate.
Justin Herbert played with his repaired hand last week as the QB17 in fantasy, with his surprising ten carries and 66 rushing yards, helping his fantasy value. I didn’t see that rushing volume coming. I did, however, see the Chargers skewing run-heavy as Herbert passed only 26 times, completing 46.2% of his passes with 139 yards and 5.3 yards per attempt. Herbert did have a 10.2 aDOT but only managed to sport a 57.7% catchable target rate. The Chargers’ passing attack should be downgraded for at least this week again. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game, the 11th-most yards per attempt, and the 13th-highest passer rating. I don’t think the Chargers will ramp up the volume through the air this week, but hopefully Herbert can see better efficiency numbers when he does chuck it.
Caleb Williams is a rollercoaster that isn’t worth riding when he’s facing a tough pass defense. He has six QB1 weekly outings this season and seven games as the QB16 or lower in weekly scoring despite being the QB7 in fantasy points per game. Among 47 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 27th in yards per attempt, 17th in passing yards per game, 37th in highly accurate throw rate, and 41st in catchable target rate. Cleveland is a nightmare fuel matchup for Williams. Since Week 10, Cleveland has allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game, the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, and the lowest success rate per dropback. During this same span, they have had the best pressure rate in the NFL. I expect Chicago to be run heavy again this week to hide Williams.
The last time Bryce Young faced this pass defense, he finished as the QB29 for the week with 124 passing yards, 5.0 yards per attempt, and zero passing touchdowns. Young’s volatility can’t be trusted in the fantasy playoffs. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Young ranks 31st in yards per attempt, 27th in passing yards per game, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, and 22nd in catchable target rate. Even if I had any faith for Young to produce in Week 15, the Saints’ pass defense has improved, and it would knock him down a peg. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the second-fewest passing yards per game, and the fifth-lowest success rate per dropback.
Since Week 10, Miami has taken the air out of the ball and skewed massively run-heavy. Across their last four games, the Dolphins have had the lowest neutral passing rate (44%), and Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t attempted more than 23 passes in any game. It has capped the ceiling and dropped the weekly floor for Tagovailoa and all of the team’s pass catchers. Since Week 10, Tagovailoa has managed double-digit fantasy points only once and hasn’t finished higher than QB18 in any week. Add in that since Week 10, Pittsburgh has allowed the eighth-lowest success rate per dropback, the eighth-fewest yards per attempt, and the third-lowest CPOE, and Tagovailoa is a low-end QB2 not worth playing this week.
Cam Ward has surpassed 14 fantasy points in only one game this season. He still hasn’t passed for more than 265 yards in any game and has one game with multiple passing touchdowns. Ward has finished as the QB21 or lower in weekly scoring nine times. I don’t want to play Ward this week or any week for that matter, but if you’re in a pickle this week, this would be the matchup to plug him in. Since Week 10, San Francisco has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, the second-highest CPOE, and the 14th-most yards per attempt.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
