The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes as we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
This week, we have a full 13-game slate to dig into. Let’s get to it.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 15
Quarterbacks
After aggravating his previously injured elbow, Daniels left last week’s game. He is out for what could be the rest of the season, at the very least for the foreseeable future. In six starts, Mariota is averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game. In three of those starts, he has finished as a top-ten QB in weekly scoring, including a QB3 finish in week 13’s game against the Denver Broncos. He is averaging 35 rushing yards per contest, which helps raise his floor. Part of what makes him plug-and-play viable is that the Commanders do not have to alter their playbook too much due his similar skill set as Daniels.
The Commanders travel to New Jersey to face the New York Giants. The Giants currently allow the second-most fantasy points per game. On average, they allow 244 passing yards, 24 rushing yards, and 1.8 passing touchdowns per contest. They have allowed seven games of two or more passing touchdowns this season.
This game features a 46.5 over/under. Mariota can be used in both cash and GPP contests. His sub 5% ownership makes him more attractive in GPP contests where users can use multiple lineups.
Granted, this is not one of the cheaper picks that typically get highlighted for this article. However, there is a trend worth chasing in these DFS streets. So, we will approach this one backwards from my normal format, like a Quentin Tarantino film, we will start at the end and work our way to the beginning.
The Titans are generous and giving to quarterbacks. Doubtful that it is just them being jolly for the holiday season. More than likely, it is far more simple than that. Their defense…well…it is not very good. In last week’s article, I highlighted Shedeur Sanders as a value play. Why? His opponent. The Titans are gift-wrapping QB1 performances to quarterbacks this season. Over the last four weeks, they have allowed an average of 277 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 16.5 rushing yards per game.
Meanwhile, Purdy only has one QB1 performance under his belt this season, and that occurred back in week 11 against the Cardinals. He is about to add another one. The immediate concern about this play is how much they actually have to throw. That is a fair question. Typically, answering a question with another question is frowned upon, but in this case, it answers the question. When does Kyle Shanahan take his foot off the gas? Exactly.
Purdy is usable in both cash and GPP contests this week. His expected ownership is in the 10% range. Running back Christian McCaffrey was a late add to the injury report on Saturday with a back issue. Monitor this status closely before dropping Purdy into lineups.
Running Backs
In the absence of Alvin Kamara, Neal has stepped into workhorse usage. Over his last two starts, he is averaging 18 touches for 76 scrimmage yards and has scored once. The volume has been there, providing some flex appeal with touchdown potential. Last week, fellow rookie Tyler Shough vultured two rushing touchdowns, which would have positively affected his production once tacked on to his 84 scrimmage yards.
The Panthers allow the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. In week 13, they allowed Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to combine for 212 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Since week 11, they have allowed six rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs.
Neal will walk into this game with RB2 floor type of volume and scoring upside. He works better in GPP contests for this slate.
Marks has hit RB2 or better numbers in five games this season, two of which were RB1 finishes. Since Week 10, he has averaged 18 rush attempts for 62 yards per game. During that stretch, we have seen some explosive runs from Marks. He also has five total touchdowns, three of which have come through the air.
This week, Marks and company host the Arizona Cardinals. They allow the fourth-most fantasy production to the position. Last week, they allowed Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to combine for 153 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Since week 11, they have allowed six rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. Sounds eerily similar to a few paragraphs ago. These are two defenses to target for running backs, and Marks can make his day either on the ground or through the air.
In a good matchup, expect Marks to have the volume needed to exceed his cost in a matchup that makes it more likely he scores. He can be used in cash, preferred in GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Robinson has been a volume play this season, especially after Malik Nabers went down with a season-ending injury. Robinson is WR8 in targets (110), WR7 in receptions (73), and WR11 in receiving yards. On the season, he is the WR20 in fantasy points per game. He is averaging 80 yards per contest and has three scores on the season. While a couple more touchdowns would please his seasonal managers, it is also part of the reason his salary is suppressed when compared to his volume.
The Commanders are going to find ways to score, and this game features a healthy 46.5 over/under. That could lead to yet another double-digit target game for Robinson. They allow the eighth-most fantasy production to wide receivers, including 163 receiving yards and 1.1 receiving touchdowns per contest. Over their last five games, they have allowed three touchdowns to receivers.
In a full PPR scoring setting, Robinson commands enough volume to outplay his salary. If he can add a touchdown, it is wheels up for this slate. He works best in GPP formats, but can also be used in cash as a flex play with upside.
This season, Jameson Williams has begun to truly show that he is becoming the receiver the Lions thought they were getting when he was drafted. Over his last five games, he has hit 88 yards or more (full transparency, there was a goose egg in there) and scored three times. He has 19 targets over his last two games for 240 yards and one of the aforementioned scores. Per the eye-test, his routes have become cleaner, and he is getting enough separation for Goff to notice, despite the high first-read share that Amon-Ra St. Brown commands. His price point has not fully caught up with his production.
The Rams are a true neutral defense against receivers. With St. Brown likely to be the focal point of coverage across the middle, Williams will have a deep target or two in this contest. They allow the 16-most, or fewest if you prefer, fantasy points to receivers.
Williams is viable in both cash and GPP contests. The recent uptick in volume lends to both, and he retains his big-play ability that could lead to a big advantage.
Tight Ends
Rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. has been better than anticipated in his first season, especially when quarterback play has been taken into account. He is currently the TE12 in fantasy points per game (11.1), the TE4 in targets (85), TE7 in receptions (59) and the TE5 in receiving yards. He has been operating with a 23% target share since Shedeur Sanders became the starter. Fannin has played more of a big-slot role for the Browns offense and it has been working. No need to deviate at this point, from a rational coaching standpoint. David Njoku has already been ruled out for this week.
The Bears allow the 13th-most fantasy points to the position. They have allowed five touchdowns to the position this season, and Fannin will stroll into Soldier Field with four on the season, hoping to add another to his already impressive rookie campaign.
Fannin is going to be chalky to some degree, so best used in cash contests and sprinkled through multiple lineups in GPP contests.
Not going to fabricate, this is a tough one to put in print with my name on it. Andrews, once heralded as a set-it-forget-it tight end, has not fallen from grace so much as plummeted from it. He is the TE16 (0.5PPR – TE21 in full PPR) and that has been largely based on his five touchdowns. There are reasons to like him in this spot at his current salary, though. So let’s work through it together.
His highest yardage output this season (47 yards) came against these same Bengals back in week 13. He fit the scheme and the coverage and had enough scoreless yards to be usable as a fantasy asset. In this rematch, the Bengals’ pass defense has not been resurrected from the dark lands of terminal slot coverage. They allow the most fantasy points to the position, and this game features a 51.5 over/under. Points shall accrue in a matchup where Burrow is back leading the Bengals, and Lamar Jackson has finally started to appear more like himself.
Between the matchup and his price point, Andrews is usable in both cash and GPP contests.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
