Top 3 Fantasy Football Storylines of Week 14 (2025)

Week 14’s most significant fantasy football storylines come from divisional matchups (AFC North, AFC South, NFC North).

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Fantasy Football Storylines

Who Can Gamers Trust in the Steelers vs. Ravens AFC North Battle?

The Steelers and Ravens are in a genuine battle for the AFC North title, with the Bengals owning longshot odds to overtake both teams. Neither the Steelers nor the Ravens enters this week in good form. The betting info isn’t especially fantasy-friendly, either. The Ravens are 5.5-point favorites, and the game’s total is an unexciting 43.5 points.

Lamar Jackson has traditionally been a no-brainer starting option. However, he’s just a low-end starter by fantasy points per game, and he’s scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in three straight games.

Jackson’s work against Mike Tomlin’s Steelers has been checkered. According to StatHead, Jackson had his two best fantasy performances against Pittsburgh last season, specifically scoring 20.48 fantasy points against them in Week 16 and 23.1 against them in the Wild Card Round. In seven games against them since 2019, Jackson has cleared 17 fantasy points three times. He’s had fewer than 15 fantasy points four times. Jackson is best viewed as a boom-or-bust, low-end QB1 this week, and many gamers might have a better option.

Jackson’s struggles have impacted his pass-catching options. Since Jackson returned from his hamstring injury in Week 9, none of his wideouts or tight ends have tallied even 10 half-PPR points per game. Zay Flowers can be treated as a WR3 or Flex in a plus-matchup. Mark Andrews is a touchdown-or-bust option at tight end. Gamers shouldn’t overreact to Isaiah Likely‘s five receptions for 95 yards against the Bengals last week. Tight ends have destroyed the Bengals. Therefore, Likely’s effort should be taken with a rounded spoonful of salt.

Derrick Henry hasn’t played like a world-beater. Nevertheless, according to the Fantasy Points data suite, King Henry has recorded the following statistics since Week 9:

• 84.2 rushing yards per game
• 4.78 yards per carry
• 5.7% explosive run rate
• 4 rushing touchdowns
• 29.7% route participation rate
• 0.19 targets per route run (TPRR)
• 1.8 receptions per game
• 19.6 receiving yards per game
• 16.1 half-PPR points per game
• 15.2 expected half-PPR points per game

Henry is the only no-brainer fantasy starter in this contest.

Jaylen Warren is Pittsburgh’s most valuable fantasy option. In Week 13, he handled 10 of the backfield’s 17 rush attempts and had a 56% route participation rate. Comparatively, Kenneth Gainwell had five rush attempts and a 44% route participation rate. Will the backfield usage stick? Maybe, but good luck to those who trust Arthur Smith not to pull the rug out on them.

Since Week 9, the Ravens have allowed the 17th-most half-PPR points per game (23.8) to wide receivers. The mid-pack matchup doesn’t move the needle for DK Metcalf. Pittsburgh’s No. 1 wideout is also in lousy form. Metcalf’s stats in his previous five games:

• 85.5% route participation rate
• 8.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
• 33.4% air yards share
• 21.1% target share
• 0.23 TPRR
• 26.3% first-read rate
• 6.4 targets per game
• 3.6 receptions per game
• 28.8 receiving yards per game
• 0 touchdowns
• 6.1 half-PPR points per game
• 11.2 expected half-PPR points per game

Gamers in desperate need at WR3 or Flex could roll the dice on Metcalf based on his expected points lately.

Can the Colts Get Back on Track?

This is essentially a repeat of one of last week’s top storylines. Thus, the Colts didn’t get back on track against Houston’s talented defense. Instead, Indianapolis lost and fell behind the Jaguars in the AFC South standings.

Jonathan Taylor is always a must-start player. However, he has a challenging matchup this week. The Jaguars have allowed the seventh-fewest half-PPR points per game (14.6) to running backs since Week 9.

Jacksonville’s defense is a massive pass-funnel. In fact, according to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Jaguars have faced the highest pass rate over expectation (7.1% PROE) this year and have faced the third-highest PROE (8.1%) since Week 9. Daniel Jones is playing through a fractured fibula. Nevertheless, he played adequately in a challenging matchup against the Texans last week, tallying 201 passing yards and two touchdowns, with zero interceptions and only one sack taken.

Jones is a streaming option, at best, this week. Understandably, he hasn’t provided much rushing production, presumably because of his fibula fracture. Since the Jaguars are a pass-funnel, Jones’ pass-catching weapons are varying degrees of interesting this week.

Tyler Warren is the most exciting option. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most half-PPR points per game (13.9) to tight ends this season and ceded the second-most (17.3) to the position since Week 9. Meanwhile, Warren is a locked-in TE1, and he hasn’t hit a rookie wall, tallying 8.9 half-PPR points per game and 11.1 expected half-PPR points per game in his last four contests.

Alec Pierce is a big-play machine, and he’s been Indianapolis’s best receiver this year. The speedster is a rock-solid starter.

Michael Pittman has had a putrid 1.29 yards per route run (YPRR) in his last four games while logging 4.25 receptions per game, 43.5 receiving yards per game and one touchdown reception. Pittman’s eight half-PPR points per game were nothing to write home about in that stretch, but his 11.9 expected half-PPR points per game were better.

Pittman is also intriguing this week from a schematic standpoint. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Jaguars have played zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate (77.4%) and two-high coverage at the 10th-highest rate (53.1%) this season. Pittman has 0.22 TPRR and 1.80 YPRR on 258 routes against zone and 0.25 TPRR and 2.10 YPRR on 182 routes against two-high coverage this season. Pittman should be treated as a WR2 this week. The Colts will have their hands full as 1.5-point road favorites against the Jaguars, but they should at least provide gamers with fantasy options.

Will the Bears Continue to Prove the Doubters Wrong?

The Bears are currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Still, they’re 6.5-point underdogs at Lambeau Field this week, and the game’s total of 44.5 points leaves Chicago with an uninspiring implied total of 19 points.

This week is a suboptimal spot for Caleb Williams. The Packers have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game (14.7) to quarterbacks this season and the fewest (10.6) since Week 9. Gamers should probably use someone else at quarterback in 12-team leagues or smaller this week, but Williams is an acceptable starter if the streaming options are also lousy.

Chicago’s wide receivers are shaky options, too. No receiver on the Bears has reached even 40 receiving yards per game in their previous five games. Luther Burden‘s 39.3 receiving yards per game since Week 9 slightly bested Rome Odunze‘s 37.6 and DJ Moore‘s 34.2. Odunze and Moore had identical 73.9% route participation rates since Week 9, and Burden lagged at 51.6%.

Odunze and Moore are best treated as low-end WR3/Flex plays this week, and benching them is reasonable. Burden is a deep-league dart throw. The Packers have played zone coverage at the third-highest rate (78.4%) this year. Burden leads the Bears in targets per route run (0.26) and yards per route run (2.54), excluding Williams’ gimmick routes, on 108 routes against zone coverage this season.

Cole Kmet remains a thorn in Colston Loveland‘s side, but the rookie tight end is a viable low-end TE1/high-end TE2. He has a 60.3% route participation rate since Week 9. Still, Loveland has paced the Bears in that stretch in receptions (20; four per game), receiving yards per game (58) and touchdown receptions (three).

Chicago’s running game has thrived since its Week 5 bye. Moreover, D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai have formed a potent one-two punch. Unfortunately, the split backfield makes either of them difficult to trust, given the Bears are underdogs and have an implied total under 20 points. In four games since Swift returned from a one-game absence against the Bengals in Week 9, he has toted the rock 60 times for 310 yards (77.5 per game) and one rushing touchdown. Monangai had 53 carries for 229 yards (57.3 per game) and four rushing touchdowns. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Swift and Monangai each handled 50% of the team’s rush attempts inside the 5-yard line during that span.

Swift should get the edge over Monangai for gamers deciding between them this week, though. Swift has had a 41.9% route participation rate versus just 28.4% for Monangai since Week 10, and the former had seven receptions for 45 yards compared to one for 14 for the latter. Since the Bears are underdogs, Monangai could be the victim of a negative game script. Four teams are on their bye this week, leaving Swift in the RB2 mix, and Monangai in the emergency RB2/Flex mix, albeit with the aforementioned game-script risk.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.