Pitchers and catchers have reported for every MLB team. Spring training is just around the corner. Unfortunately, injury news has already surfaced for players such as Corbin Carroll, Francisco Lindor, Jackson Holliday, Anthony Santander, Spencer Schwellenbach, Shane Bieber and others. I didn’t include any injured players among the following fantasy baseball risers and fallers. The highlighted players were four risers and four fallers in average draft position (ADP) from January 28 to February 12, and all have a top-90 ADP, putting them within the first eight rounds of 12-team mixed leagues.
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Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers
Fantasy Baseball Risers
Manny Machado (3B – SD): 32.4 ADP on 1/28 and 29.2 ADP on 2/14
Manny Machado is the 25th batter selected in ADP and was the 23rd-ranked hitter by our value-based ranking (VBR) metric in 2025. Machado is an outstanding cornerstone for fantasy baseball squads.
He’s exceeded 600 plate appearances in 10 consecutive non-pandemic shortened seasons. Machado is a genuine five-category contributor, logging the following stats in 159 games and 678 plate appearances last year.
- 91 runs
- 27 homers
- 95 RBIs
- 14 stolen bases
- 8.1 BB%
- 19.3 K%
- .275 batting average
- .271 expected batting average (xBA)
- .460 slugging (SLG)
- .495 expected slugging (xSLG)
- 123 wRC+
There’s nothing flukey about Machado’s 2025 performance, and his ability to stuff the box score makes him an excellent target at his ADP.
Brent Rooker (OF, DH – ATH): 44.6 ADP on 1/28 and 41.8 ADP on 2/14
Brent Rooker and teammate Tyler Soderstrom are both risers. Soderstrom’s ADP rose from 90.4 on January 28 to 84.2 on February 12, but Rooker got the nod because an approximately three-pick climb in the first four rounds is pretty significant.
According to Baseball Savant, Rooker was tied for 24th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.3 Brls/PA%) among qualified batters in 2025. He crushes the ball, and his 30 homers in 2025 were tied for the 30th most blasts. Rooker also scored 92 runs and rattled off 89 RBIs. The slugger is an outstanding source of power and run production.
He also chipped in six stolen bases last year after swiping 11 the previous season. Rooker isn’t a massive batting average liability, either. His .262 batting average aligned with his .261 xBA, and he had a .293 batting average and .263 xBA in 2024. Furthermore, Rooker’s offensive contributions receive a significant boost from the Athletics playing at Sutter Health Park again this year. According to Baseball Savant’s 2025 park factors, Sutter Health Park was second in park factor for runs (117), second for hits (107), second for doubles (122) and tied for sixth in homers (112). Rooker is a rock-solid target in the fourth round, and other A’s hitters, including the rising Soderstrom, are also desirable picks.
Edwin Diaz (RP – LAD): 53.2 ADP on 1/28 and 42.2 ADP on 2/14
Edwin Diaz has moved up almost precisely one round in 12-team mixed leagues from January 28 to February 12. Diaz was lights out for the Mets in 2025. He recorded the following dominant stats in 62 appearances:
- 66.1 innings
- 6 wins
- 28 saves
- 1.63 ERA
- 2.49 xERA
- 2.49 xFIP
- 2.18 SIERA
- 0.87 WHIP
- 48.4 GB%
- 8.1 BB%
- 38.0 K%
- 18.0 SwStr%
- 33.6 CSW%
- 110 Stuff+
- 93 Location+
- 105 Pitching+
Diaz will close for the defending World Series champs. He offers everything gamers could want from an elite reliever. Diaz should help immensely in ratios, strikeouts and saves. In fact, Diaz’s Zeile consensus projection has him leading MLB with 37 saves this year, four more than the second-highest total. Whether Diaz is worth his ADP entirely relies on a gamer’s drafting preference. Those who are willing to spend an early-round pick on an elite reliever should get their money’s worth from Diaz. However, gamers willing to embrace more variance for saves can enjoy Diaz costing elite-closer drafters an earlier selection.
Mason Miller (RP – SD): 54.2 ADP on 1/28 and 43.8 ADP on 2/14
The cost of elite relievers went up from January 28 to February 12. Diaz was already highlighted as a significant riser, but Mason Miller also moved up 10.4 picks in that period. Jhoan Duran, Cade Smith and Andres Munoz aren’t featured, but they ticked up as well.
Miller was outstanding for the Athletics, but his pitching kicked up in 22 appearances for the Padres. He logged the following statistics in 23.1 innings in those appearances:
- 0.77 ERA
- 1.95 xERA
- 1.09 xFIP
- 1.50 SIERA
- 0.73 WHIP
- 50.0 GB%
- 12.0 BB%
- 54.2 K%
- 22.2 SwStr%
- 39.7 CSW%
- 122 Stuff+
- 88 Location+
- 112 Pitching+
Miller saved only two games for the Padres upon his arrival. Fortunately, he’ll serve as San Diego’s closer this year, and he demonstrated the lights aren’t too bright for him in a closing gig, saving 28 games for the Athletics in 2024 and 20 for them in 2025. Miller is projected in a two-way tie for the second-most saves (33), but he’s projected for more strikeouts (105 versus 94), a better ERA (2.58 versus 3.04) and a lower WHIP (0.98 versus 1.06) than Diaz. There’s an argument for flipping him ahead of Diaz, but either is an elite RP1 for a fantasy squad.
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Matt Olson (1B – ATL): 36.2 ADP on 1/28 and 41.4 ADP on 2/14
Matt Olson was the biggest faller in the top-50 picks, dipping 5.2 selections. Since swatting a career-high 54 homers in 2023, capping off a three-year span of 127 bombs with at least 34 in each season, he’s posted precisely 29 homers in back-to-back seasons.
On the plus side, Olson has played 162 games in all four seasons with the Braves. He stays healthy and plays every day. Sadly, his power slide has put pressure on his batting average to determine his fantasy value. Olson is a stellar source of run production, but he had a .247 batting average in 2024 and a .272 batting average in 2025.
His BABIP almost entirely drove the difference between the two seasons. Olson had a .293 BABIP in 2024 and .333 in 2025. Olson’s career BABIP is .289. The veteran left-handed batter had a .242 xBA in 2024 and a .249 xBA in 2025. Last year’s batting average looks like a fluke, and his fall is warranted.
Randy Arozarena (OF – SEA): 78.8 ADP on 1/28 and 86.6 ADP on 2/14
In his age-30 season, Randy Arozarena hit a career-high 27 homers, tied his career high with 95 runs and finished with 31 stolen bases – one shy of his career-high 32 in 2022. He finished as the 41st-ranked hitter by our VBR metric, and he’s the 56th-ranked hitter in ADP.
Gamers are justifiably baking some regression into his 2026 profile. Arozarena’s batted-ball profile in 2025 wasn’t too dissimilar to 2023, when he hit 23 homers in 654 plate appearances. He needed a career-high 707 plate appearances to set his new high for blasts. The right-handed-hitting outfielder’s .238 batting average last year was also the second-lowest mark of his career after setting a career low at .219 in 2024. He had a .213 xBA in 2024 and a .227 xBA in 2025. Arozarena will more than likely be a batting average liability.
He’ll also probably steal fewer bases this season. Arozarena was caught stealing only six times in 37 attempts last year after getting caught at least 10 times in each season from 2021 to 2024. Another 20-20 season is a reasonable expectation for Arozarena. Still, his new ADP does a better job of accounting for regression and his batting average.
Corey Seager (SS – TEX): 84.6 ADP on 1/28 and 89.6 ADP on 2/14
I recently highlighted Corey Seager as a draft target. Seager was an excellent selection at his previous ADP, and he’s an even more appealing buy at his new ADP. I won’t rehash why I love Seager as a draft target. Readers should check out that piece.
Bo Bichette (SS – NYM): 85.4 ADP on 1/28 and 88.4 ADP on 2/14
Bo Bichette bounced back in 2025 from an injury-shortened and career-worst 2024 campaign. Bichette ripped off a .311 batting average and .295 xBA in 628 plate appearances. He had a career-low 14.5 K%, supporting the robust batting average.
Sadly, Bichette’s 18 homers were down from his three-year stretch of popping 29, 24 and 20 in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively. He’s also no longer an asset in stolen bases. He swiped a career-high 25 in his first full season in the Majors in 2021, but Bichette has stolen 13, five, five and four since then.
The long-time shortstop will need to learn the hot corner for the Mets. Hopefully, learning a new position won’t impact his performance at the dish. Still, Bichette’s profile is batting-average heavy, with modest across-the-board production behind it. The Zeile projections peg Bichette for 77 runs, 18 homers, 79 RBIs, six stolen bases and a .286 batting average. Bichette could stand to fall a little further, namely behind Seager.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
