Early quarterback fantasy football rankings always look a little weird in February. That’s kind of the point. We dig into early 2026 QB fantasy football rankings and tiers using FantasyPros’ ECR as the baseline.
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Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers
Here’s a way to think about quarterback in 2026 fantasy football drafts. Pay up only if you’re buying a true weekly edge. Otherwise, lean into upside and cost.
Tier 1: The “build-around” QBs
Josh Allen (QB – BUF) sits at the top, and nobody fought it. He’s still the prototype for “I paid up, and it actually mattered.”
The more interesting debate is right behind him, where ECR had Drake May ahead of Lamar Jackson. The show didn’t land on a single agreed order, but the idea was consistent: your early QB has to win you weeks, not just be “good.”
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) (when healthy) still checks that box with rushing and spike-week ceilings.
Tier 2: High-end starters with real questions
This is where the episode got spicy: Joe Burrow (QB – CIN), Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS), Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI), and Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG) were grouped tightly in ECR, but the analysts weren’t treating them the same.
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI): great floor, shakier “elite” case
Erickson’s core argument: Hurts has been very good (QB8 in back-to-back seasons per the discussion), but “very good” isn’t why you draft an early QB. If Hurts isn’t clearing that 20+ fantasy points per game threshold consistently, you’re paying for a name, not an edge.
He also pointed to infrastructure uncertainty (coaching changes, offensive line questions, and possible pass-catcher turnover) as the kind of stuff that quietly caps ceiling outcomes.
Ciely pushed back with a simple angle: we’ve already seen Hurts hit that elite scoring tier before, and a small bounce-back in rushing TDs can swing him right back near the top.
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN): the pocket-passer tax
Ciely’s philosophy is straightforward: prioritize runners early. Burrow can absolutely smash, but his path requires near-perfect passing volume and touchdowns. Hurts can get there with less going right because of the rushing component.
Tier 3: The upside pocket plus the value swing
ECR’s next tier included Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy, and Dak Prescott. This is where “how you draft QB” starts to matter more than the exact rank.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC): ceiling vs pace concerns
Erickson went aggressive on Herbert, pointing to the upside case if the line is healthy and the offense is functional. He also noted Herbert’s mobility isn’t nothing.
Ciely’s counter wasn’t about Herbert’s talent. It was about math: if the offense bleeds clock, you lose plays, and fantasy QBs lose oxygen. Herbert can be efficient and still finish around QB10 if the pass attempts don’t climb.
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI): the “late(ish) QB” swing for upside
Erickson specifically preferred Caleb over Hurts at cost because the range-of-outcomes is what you’re buying. If Williams pops in a new system, that’s the kind of leap that wins leagues without paying the Allen/Lamar price.
Outside the top 12: where leagues are won (and lost)
A few names stood out:
- Baker Mayfield (QB – TB) was framed as a bounce-back target if health stabilizes and the offense doesn’t collapse late again.
- C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU) got the harshest fade from Ciely, who compared his fantasy profile to a “slightly more athletic Matt Ryan.” Translation: real-life great, fantasy needs everything to be perfect.
- Sam Darnold (QB – SEA) was treated as a better NFL QB than fantasy QB because of low rushing and team context.
- Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) and Daniel Jones (QB – IND) were bucketed as landing-spot wildcards, with Jones getting a nod for rushing equity if he’s healthy and starts Week 1.
Fantasy football draft approach takeaway
If you’re not buying Allen/Lamar-level separation, the show leaned toward a “late QB, bet on a leap” plan. That means targeting the tier where cost is reasonable and upside is real, then building the rest of your roster without forcing an early QB just because you feel like you need one.
Fantasy Football Takeaways
- Josh Allen is still the cleanest bet to outscore the position by enough to justify the price.
- Jalen Hurts is the biggest “value vs ceiling” debate: safe weekly starter, but you need elite scoring to make an early QB pick worth it.
- Joe Burrow‘s path to top-3 production is narrow because he needs passing volume and TDs to carry everything.
- Justin Herbert is a ceiling play, but pace and play volume could keep him in the QB8-QB12 neighborhood even if he’s efficient.
- If you’re not paying for Allen/Lamar, consider leaning into upside with quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and spending earlier picks on RB/WR.
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