Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. The playoffs are on the horizon. The NBA is in full focus right now, with no meaningful football or baseball. Hopefully, the league takes center stage with bigger DraftKings and FanDuel contests for casuals to play.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a solid six-game slate tonight, so you shouldn’t have to go too crazy when differentiating your lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $9,700
- FanDuel: $9,900
To start today’s discourse, I’m going in on Anthony Edwards as Minnesota takes on Toronto at home. This is more so a fade of Cade Cunningham‘s early projected rostership. We’ll get to that, but I do like Edwards a lot tonight. He’s facing a not-so-healthy Toronto team whose defense has dropped out of the top 10.
Edwards is commanding a 35% usage rate with 37 minutes a night over his last six games. We’re only seeing more and more of Edwards. After coming off a 66-point game on Tuesday, I’m only expecting to see more of that as we get into playoff races coming up.
For Cunningham, early rostership puts him at around 33%, and that is simply too much for me to back. It’s a tough matchup against the league’s best defense on the road, and other options at guard offer reasonable roster construction without him. If his rostership comes down, he makes for a fine GPP play. As of now, he’s a fade thanks to his expensive price tag.
- DraftKings: $9,600
- FanDuel: $9,500
Next on the list, we have Paolo Banchero taking on the Dallas Mavericks at home tonight. With all that they’re dealing with, the Mavericks do seem perpetually hurt and appear to be in full tank mode. Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Brandon Williams, Klay Thompson and Marvin Bagley III are all either out or questionable for tonight’s game.
That puts Orlando as a near double-digit favorite, where I expect Banchero to shine. He is another example where we’ve seen his usage and minutes creep up, and he’s averaged over 47 fantasy points a night in his last seven outings. Dallas’ defense has ranked in the bottom seven in the league over their last 15 games, and they’ve ranked in the top seven at allowing fantasy points to opposing power forwards.
This is a high-floor, high-ceiling setup for the Magic star, and I see him fit for both contest types tonight.
- DraftKings: $8,400
- FanDuel: $8,200
After a 55-point effort last time out against Brooklyn, I’m going right back to the well with Bam Adebayo tonight against Brooklyn. The pace down spot is a bit of a concern, but given Miami being the quickest team in the league, it’s a bit of a moot point.
While I don’t expect Adebayo to go over 50 fantasy points again here, he has done so twice in his last three games. His floor is what I’m after here more with his 35 minutes a night he’s averaged in the last three games. Brooklyn has also allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers over their last 15 games, and their overall defense has ranked third-worst in the same time frame. Adebayo doesn’t have to be ultra-efficient here to return value, and he’s shown his ability to get there in different ways.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $6,700
- FanDuel: $6,800
Brandon Ingram is questionable tonight for Toronto. If he misses, this goes from a good play to a great one. Either way, I like what RJ Barrett is cooking tonight. His price has stayed steady under $7,000, but he’s consistently producing, averaging over 33 fantasy points a night in his last four.
Minnesota’s frontcourt defense is a lot scarier than where I imagine Barrett will take most of his looks in this one, and the Duke product has consistently played over 34 minutes a night with a 24% usage rate recently. He’s a safe, simple play that doesn’t break the bank, an easy choice for cash lineups.
- DraftKings: $6,500
- FanDuel: $6,800
It may be scary seeing a “1st” in the opponent rank column on DraftKings next to De’Aaron Fox’s name, but the total in this game is just shy of 230 points. Points will be scored here. The Spurs guard has only fallen below 25 fantasy points once in his last nine games, and I would be shocked if that happens tonight, with a projection closer to 33.
The Pistons’ defense takes a bit of a dip on the road, and Fox put up 32 DraftKings points last time in this same matchup, where the Spurs handled business. It’s a scary game on paper, but it shouldn’t be in practice. Of course, the ceiling is a bit limited, but that’s not exactly what we’re after here. Fox should inject 30 fantasy points into your lineup while still allowing you to spend up elsewhere.
- DraftKings: $7,800
- FanDuel: $7,900
Utah is playing in the second leg of a back-to-back, so I don’t expect Keyonte George to play in this game. If he does, I would slot him in this same spot because one of these players will be highly rostered as we get closer to lock. There will be a lot of discourse on Utah-Washington tonight, but you can’t ignore the 244-point total.
I can’t say that Isaiah Collier has been consistent exactly, but he’s in a friendly enough matchup that the trust meter goes high enough to slot him in here. Again, monitor injury news because this game can get weird. I’m just trying to get ahead of the curve here.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $10,900
- FanDuel: $11,900
I know I sound like a broken record whenever Victor Wembanyama is on a slate. But he’s gone over 60 fantasy points in two of the last six games and can do so any given game, and did so the last time he faced Detroit. Wembanyama gets Detroit at home, where he has averaged over six fantasy points per game more than his away splits.
For the same reasons I’m worried about Cade Cunningham, I’m worried about Wembanyama, but the Spurs big man is about half as rostered right now. I expect those two numbers to come back closer together. At about 15%, it will be hard to completely fade Wembanyama in such a significant game, where I imagine he will get additional run with the Spurs as one-possession favorites.
- DraftKings: $9,100
- FanDuel: $9,300
On today’s slate, it feels like the forgotten game is Golden State-Houston. With a total of 215 points, I see why. But I never recommend blindly ignoring a game, and I wouldn’t do that tonight either. As 8-point favorites tonight at home, it’s not like this is the absolute worst setup in the world for Kevin Durant.
Also, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun are all questionable tonight. If even one is ruled out, Durant only gets a bump. He’s projected just shy of double-digit percent rostership tonight. He’s gone over 50 fantasy points in two of his last three outings. Durant is also averaging 38 minutes per game, with a 31% usage rate in the same time frame. That’s a small sample size, but if his play reflects that at all in this matchup, he will be criminally under-rostered.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,900
- FanDuel: $5,700
Don’t be surprised if you see a lot of value options pop up over the day. Between Utah and Washington, we have a 243-point total and no defense. It’s like the All-Star game but with the worst players in the league. Both squads are in the top six in pace of play while ranking in the bottom two in the league defensively.
It’s hard to ask for a better fantasy situation than this game across the league at any point this season. For Bilal Coulibaly, his pricing and usage just line up best for a high return on investment (ROI), especially on DraftKings. He’s playing 25 minutes a night while managing a 24% usage rate when he’s on the court. That’s good enough to project him for around a fantasy point per minute, which I picture as more of a conservative option against this Jazz team.
Some other value options I like in this game include Brice Sensabaugh, Jaden Hardy, Mo Bamba and Elijah Harkless. But don’t go full chalk on this game across all of your lineups, remember to differentiate, and that anything can happen in the NBA.
- DraftKings: $5,200
- FanDuel: $5,600
For value at center tonight, we have Jakob Poeltl. The Toronto big man has slotted himself into the starting lineup, and the pricing is still friendly enough that he can get to 6X ROI. In his last three games, Poeltl has averaged 33 fantasy points and 28 minutes per game.
Obviously, it’s a small sample size, but even knocking his projections down closer to 28 fantasy points still puts him at a decent value. Poeltl will get some looks with his minutes and save some salary.
Your other center option here is Kel’el Ware for a spend-down choice. His ceiling is a little limited with how possession-limiting Brooklyn will be, but he’s still a great punt option at his price.
