Andrew Erickson | Thu, Apr 23rd 2026, 7:12am EDT

2026 NFL Mock Draft: Andrew Erickson’s Final Picks & Predictions

Welcome to the final release of my 2026 NFL Draft mock draft. As the draft approaches, I have carefully analyzed the top prospects and made predictions on which 32 players will be selected in the first round and to which teams will draft them. It’s been a tedious process of balancing team needs, big-board rankings, historical trends and draft rumors to reach this pivotal point as a mock drafter.

2026 NFL Mock Draft

It’s important to note that my primary focus is on the players’ destinations rather than the actual pick numbers within the first round. After all, we care more about player-team pairings rather than the actual numbered slots. This also adheres closely to the rules of The Huddle Report’s mock draft accuracy competition, which I will be participating in.

Scoring rules:

One point for a player selected in the first round.
A player matched to a team is worth two points.

For those looking for more guidance as you submit your final mock drafts, check out my Mock Draft 1.0 that features picks based on all the historical front office trends. At the end of this mock draft, you can also find a thread titled: “Past Mock Drafts Track Record.” That is just some additional footnotes that go into mock draft research.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at my predictions for the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Enjoy.

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza (QB – Indiana)

2. New York Jets: David Bailey (EDGE – Texas Tech)

3. Arizona Cardinals: Arvell Reese (EDGE – Ohio State)

4. Tennessee Titans: Sonny Styles (LB – Ohio State)

5. New York Giants: Caleb Downs (S – Ohio State)

6. Cleveland Browns: Spencer Fano (OT – Utah)

7. Washington Commanders: Jeremiyah Love (RB – Notre Dame)

8. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain Jr. (EDGE – Miami)

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Francis Mauigoa (OT – Miami)

10. New York Giants (from Cincinnati): Jordyn Tyson (WR – Arizona State)

11. Miami Dolphins: Monroe Freeling (OT – Georgia)

12. Dallas Cowboys: Mansoor Delane (CB – LSU)

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Falcons): Carnell Tate (WR – Ohio State)

14. Baltimore Ravens: Olaivavega Ioane (iOL – Penn State)

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kenyon Sadiq (TE – Oregon)

16. New York Jets (from Colts): Makai Lemon (WR – USC)

17. Detroit Lions: Kadyn Proctor (OT – Alabama)

18. Minnesota Vikings: Kayden McDonald (DT – Ohio State)

19. Carolina Panthers: Dillon Thieneman (S – Oregon)

20. Dallas Cowboys (from Packers): Colton Hood (CB – Tennessee)

21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Max Iheanachor (OT – Arizona State)

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Chase Bisontis (OG – Texas A&M)

23. Philadelphia Eagles: Blake Miller (OT – Clemson)

24. Cleveland Browns (from Jaguars): KC Concepcion (WR – Texas A&M)

25. Chicago Bears: Caleb Lomu (OT – Utah)

26. Buffalo Bills: Denzel Boston (WR – Washington)

27. San Francisco 49ers: Omar Cooper Jr. (WR – Indiana)

28. Arizona Cardinals (from Texans): Ty Simpson (QB – Alabama)

29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Rams): Peter Woods (DT – Clemson)

30. Miami Dolphins (from Broncos): Keldric Faulk (EDGE – Auburn)

31. New England Patriots: Malachi Lawrence (EDGE – UCF)

32. Seattle Seahawks: Chris Johnson (CB – San Diego State)

Past Mock Drafts Track Record (2026 Update)

By leveraging Grinding the Mocks’ historical mock draft data (along with NFL Mock Draft Database), I compared how accurate mock drafts were by position, team, etc., leading up to the real-life NFL Draft.

Defensive Backs (Cornerback & Safety) — Highest Variance Position

Safeties and cornerbacks remain the positions NFL mock drafters have most consistently undervalued or misranked, with the largest negative difference in mocked average draft position (ADP) versus real-life results. Scheme disparities mean teams value defensive backs very differently from the public consensus.

Cornerbacks:

2021: Patrick Surtain II was the consensus CB1 throughout the draft process, but ended up going one spot behind Jaycee Horn.
2022: Derek Stingley was correctly drafted over Ahmad Gardner despite the latter being viewed as the CB1 for most of the process. Andrew Booth Jr. — the CB4 in mocks — fell out of the first round entirely due to injury concerns. Kaiir Elam was the actual CB4.
2023: Devon Witherspoon went fifth overall; the order was completely reshuffled after that. Of the fringe first-round/second-round conrberacks (Emmanuel Forbes, Kelee Ringo, Cam Smith), only Forbes went in the first round. Mocks projected five cornerbacks would go in round one; only four were selected. Deonte Banks overtook Joey Porter Jr. as the CB4 — Porter fell to pick 32.
2024: Quinyon Mitchell fell to 22nd overall, Terrion Arnold was drafted 24th overall and Nate Wiggins went 30th. Both Mitchell and Arnold had EDPs (expected draft positions) of 16. This was a draft full of classic cornerback sliding.
2025: Will Johnson — the consensus CB2 — fell out of the first round entirely. Injuries continue to be the culprit (see also Andrew Booth). Fringe first-round cornerbacks keep sliding to Day 2.

2026 Outlook: Jermod McCoy (Tennessee) has injury concerns and could be the latest cornerback to fall out of Day 1. If he falls, it could vault Colton Hood (draft invite) and Chris Johnson (buzzy late first-rounder) into the first round. As always, fade the chalk at cornerback — there is a wide range of outcomes.

Safeties:

2022: Kyle Hamilton (EDP 12.7) went 14th — close to projection. But Daxton Hill and Lewis Cine snuck into the first round at picks3 1 and 32, despite both having fringe top-32 EDPs.
2023: Brian Branch fell to Day 2.
2025: Malaki Starks went 27th overall. Nick Emmanwori fell to Day 2 (35th overall). Both had fringe top-32 projected EDPs. Business as usual, as there is a wide range of outcomes at safety too.

2026 Key Takeaway: Fade the defensive back chalk. There is a wide range of outcomes across the board. Injuries at cornerback are particularly dangerous.

Running Back — Let Daniel Jeremiah be Your Guide (With a Discount)

Mock drafters historically over-project running backs’ draft position. Daniel Jeremiah tends to overvalue backs by a few spots in his top 150, but shaving 2-4 spots off his rankings has proven to be a reliable barometer.

Historical Recap:

2022: Seven of the eight highest pre-draft running backs went earlier than mocked. Kenneth Walker III (+17 vs. EDP), James Cook (+36), Rachaad White (+49).
2023: Bijan Robinson (20.4 EDP) went eighth overall. Three of the top four mocked backs went earlier than projected. Nine of the top 13 beat their EDPs.
2024: Mocks were much closer — bad class dampened the variance.
2025: Ashton Jeanty went three spots behind Jeremiah’s rank at sixth overall. Omarion Hampton was ranked 13th by Jeremiah; he went 22nd. TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins also went later than Jeremiah had them ranked. Mocks were more accurate on first-round running backs; Jeremiah’s framework remains valid — just apply the small discount.

2026 Outlook: Jeremiah has Jeremiyah Love at No. 2 overall in his rankings and another running back outside of the top 32. Subtract a few spots from his rankings for the best projection. In strong running back classes, the mocks tend to under-project how early they go.

EDGE Rushers & Defensive Tackles — Top-3 Usually Chalk; Then Chaos

Edge:

2022: Travon Walker, Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux swept as the top three picks. After that, Jermaine Johnson — mocked in the top 10 — fell to 26th. Same fall-off pattern post-big-three.
2023: Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson and Lukas Van Ness were mostly nailed at the top. Massive shake-up in the second tier between Myles Murphy, Nolan Smith, Bryan Bresee, Calijah Kancey and Will McDonald.
2024: Dallas Turner fell to 17th (11.8 EDP). Laiatu Latu and Byron Murphy went ahead of him.
2025: Abdul Carter was the chalk as the EDGE1. Mason Graham was the consensus DT1. But the order after that scrambled: Mykel Williams went next (flipping Jalon Walker) and Kenneth Grant flipped Walter Nolen as the DT2. Mike Green — projected for the first round — fell to Day 2. Donovan Ezeiruaku and Nic Scourton also fell out of round one.

Defensive Tackle:

It’s now three consecutive seasons where defensive tackles have beaten their EDPs. Interior beef is increasingly valued.
Five defensive tackles went in the first round in 2025.
The gap between EDGE and defensive tackle is narrowing — and in some cases flipping. When in doubt, mock another defensive tackle in round one.

2026 Outlook: With no clear EDGE4 favorite beyond the big three, defensive tackles could again go higher than expected. Second-tier EDGE is unpredictable as ever — lean toward defensive tackle when it’s a coin flip. The top-three consensus EDGE order is historically reliable; everything after that is volatile.

Offensive Line — Tackles Usually Chalk; Don’t Sleep on Guards

Offensive Tackle:

Mock drafters have correctly identified the first offensive tackle drafted in six of the last seven drafts. The lone miss was 2020 (Andrew Thomas and Jedrick Wills went over Tristan Wirfs despite his OT1 pre-draft projection).
2025: Mocks hit the top three offensive tackles correctly, but significantly undervalued Tyler Booker, who went much earlier than projected. This fits the broader pattern.

Guards & Centers:

Mock drafters consistently under-project guards by 5-10 spots. This has been a recurring edge in multiple draft cycles (2022: Kenyon Green, Zion Johnson; 2025: Tyler Booker).
Interior offensive linemen rarely sneak into the back of round one. Nobody snuck in last year. Donovan Jackson was a projected first-round pick and went earlier than expected because Booker moved up first.

2026 Key Takeaway: Trust the mocks at offensive tackle. Move guards up 5-10 spots from their EDP. Interior offensive linemen’s EDP should be treated as a floor, not a ceiling. Don’t expect too many late-round interior offensive linemen to sneak in.

Quarterback — Most Overvalued Position by the Media

The narrative that teams “fall in love” with a quarterback is much stronger in public perception than reality. Historically, quarterbacks tend to fall — but the one major caveat is team obsession (e.g., Bo Nix to Denver; the Broncos needed a quarterback and weren’t letting him slip).

2021: Five quarterbacks were projected in the top 10; only three were drafted.
2022: Poor class — Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett both fell well past their consensus EDPs.
2023: Will Levis (EDP of eighth overall) fell to the second round. Hendon Hooker (29 EDP) went in round three.
2024: Six quarterbacks were drafted in the first 12 picks. Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. (EDPs of 25 and 26, respectively) still went in round one due to team obsession.
2025: Fading quarterbacks beyond Cam Ward was correct. Shedeur Sanders fell to round five. Jaxson Dart snuck into round one via trade — an important reminder that trade dynamics can scramble quarterback projections.

2026 Outlook: Ty Simpson‘s connection with Arizona could make him a sneaky first-round candidate despite a long-shot EDP — similar to Jaxson Dart. Don’t rule out one “team obsession” quarterback sneaking in. Otherwise, fade quarterbacks. The media usually overvalues them every cycle. But in the Simpson-Arizona situation, they have backed themselves into a corner. Does Monti Ossenfort really want to sweat out the Jets picking at the top of round two?

Linebacker — Fade the LB1; Buy the LB2

Interior off-ball linebackers were once the second-most overvalued position by the public, and while the market has somewhat adjusted, the patterns remain instructive.

2022: Quay Walker (22nd, 31 EDP — beat by 11 spots) and Devin Lloyd (27th, fell seven spots behind his EDP) were both first-rounders. The next linebacker was not drafted until 58th overall.
2023: Jack Campbell went 18th — well ahead of his 44 EDP. He was not the consensus LB1.
2024: Edgerrin Cooper was the consensus LB1 (46 EDP). The market somewhat anticipated it.
2025: Jihaad Campbell and Carson Schwesinger were drafted two spots apart, despite EDPs being nearly 30 picks apart. Schwesinger was one pick away from going in round one. He won the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. This was a classic LB2-over-LB1 outcome.

Pattern: In three of the last four seasons, a non-consensus linebacker drastically beat their EDP.

2026 Outlook: Fade the traditional off-ball LB1. Buy the LB2. The consensus LB1 is consistently over-drafted or misses round one. The surprise linebacker always emerges. Keep an eye on Miami’s new coaching staff (ex-Packers connections) — Green Bay has historically overvalued linebackers.

Jacob Rodriguez (Texas Tech) is a dark horse candidate as this year’s surprise linebacker. He didn’t make my final mock, but he’s one of my favorite bets because I could see several teams taking a shot on him from Picks 15-32. Buffalo/Dallas stick out because they have linebacking needs, but they don’t have second-round picks.

Sonny Styles is the exception as the LB1, whereas this fade is more about Georgia’s C.J. Allen.

Wide Receiver — Expect 2-3 Inside the Top 10

Wide receivers get drafted highly and consistently beat their EDPs in strong classes. Expect 2-3 wideouts inside the top 10 this year. Last year, Tetairoa McMillan (ninth overall) went despite “falling” reports — classic pre-draft smokescreen.

Tight End — Low Variance; Draft for Projection

Tight ends remain one of the most accurately projected positions. The major exception was Brock Bowers (11.5 EDP) falling to 13th overall due to quarterback thirst — an anomaly.

In non-quarterback-heavy drafts like 2025 and the upcoming 2026 class, expect top tight ends to be drafted closer to their projected capital or higher.

Low-Variance Positions (Follow the Field)

The positions with the least variance between mocks and real selections:

Defensive Tackle (though they have beaten their EDPs three straight years — adjust up)
Tight End
Outside Linebacker/EDGE (top tier only)
Guard (mock consensus projects closer to the floor than the ceiling)

Team Tendencies

Most likely to reach:

Steelers, Seahawks, Lions, Packers, Saints, Texans
2024: Texans and Packers reached
2025: Lions reached
Green Bay has historically overvalued linebackers. Miami’s new ex-Packers staff could mirror this tendency.
Saints have been surprisingly chalky — notably, they don’t draft players in round one that they had 30 visits with. Curious approach worth monitoring.
Seattle connection: Chris Johnson would be only the second San Diego State player drafted in round one since Rashaad Penny — potentially also by Seattle.

Most Likely to follow the best player available approach/go chalk:

Denver, NY Jets, Arizona, Chicago, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Minnesota, Baltimore, Indianapolis
Don’t expect these teams to go way off the board. Anticipate them taking the best player available when the value falls.
Caveat: Arizona’s potential obsession with Ty Simpson could be the exception this cycle.

College Program Bias — Buckeyes & Bulldogs Always go Earlier

Ohio State and Georgia prospects are consistently under-mocked by the consensus:

2025: Mykel Williams, Emeka Egbuka, Quinshon Judkins, Tyleik Williams and Donovan Jackson all went earlier than mocked.
Historically, TCU, San Diego State and Houston have also produced surprise first-rounders.

2026 Rule: Fill your mock draft with Buckeyes and Bulldogs. If there’s room to move them up — do it. These factories reliably produce prospects that the consensus undervalues at times.

Late First-Round Wild Cards — Players Outside the Top-32 EDP

Since 2018, at least one player per year with an EDP of 50+ has gone in round one. Four players outside the top 32 in EDP went in the first round in 2025 (including Emeka Egbuka and Tyleik Williams).

My top EDP bust candidates:

Malachi Lawrence (in my final mock draft)
Keylan Rutledge
Chase Bisontis (in my final mock draft)
Jacob Rodriguez
Zion Young
Ty Simpson (in my final mock draft)

Historically, at least one player per year comes from well outside the top 50 in EDP. Among the above names, the team-connection plays (Ty Simpson/Arizona) and the football factory plays (Georgia/Ohio State) have the strongest historical backing.

2026 NFL Mock Draft Picks

Check out our 2026 NFL Mock Drafts.

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