Hard to believe that we’ve already reached May in the baseball calendar. As the weather warms up, typically so do the offenses. It may mean pivoting to more expensive hitters in MLB DFS. Today’s featured DraftKings slate begins at 7:15 p.m. ET and includes six games. It’s a bit of a smaller slate for a Saturday. FanDuel has a slate that includes the same six games. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB DFS picks.
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Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (5/2)
| PLAYER | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary |
| Nolan McLean | $10,500 | $10,300 |
| Reid Detmers | $7,800 | $8,400 |
| Chase Dollander | $5,400 | $7,600 |
- Nolan McLean has upped his strikeout rate even further in his second season in the big leagues. It is currently at 33.3%. That is only behind Jacob Misiorowski and Dylan Cease among starting pitchers. His matchup today is against an Angels team that strikes out the most in baseball against right-handed pitchers.
- If you’re looking for a safer mid-tier starting pitcher option, it’s Kumar Rocker, who has been remarkably consistent without being spectacular. Reid Detmers can be spectacular, as evidenced by his two nine-strikeout games this season. He is opposing Nolan McLean and the Mets. The Mets’ offensive struggles have been well-documented with a league-worst wRC+ of 80.
- Avoiding starting pitchers at Coors Field is almost always the correct play in MLB DFS contests. But his DraftKings price, combined with the recent form of Chase Dollander, has to intrigue you. He is the cheapest pitcher on the DraftKings slate. That’s despite having over 12 strikeouts per nine innings and a 1.71 FIP over his past three starts, which included one at home.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Lineup (5/2)
| POS | PLAYER | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary |
| 1B (DK)/OF | Shohei Ohtani | $6,500 | $4,000 |
| 1B | Freddie Freeman | $5,300 | $3,000 |
| C | Will Smith | $3,800 | $2,800 |
| OF | Kyle Tucker | $5,600 | $3,200 |
| 3B | Max Muncy | $4,700 | $3,800 |
| OF | Teoscar Hernandez | $4,600 | $3,000 |
| OF | Andy Pages | $5,000 | $3,600 |
| SS/2B/OF | Hyeseong Kim | $3,000 | $2,800 |
| 2B/3B | Alex Freeland | $2,500 | $2,500 |
- Michael McGreevy‘s ERA sits at a tidy 2.97 through 33 innings. On the surface, that looks like a breakout from the pitcher we saw last season. The issue is that the underlying data says he is the same pitcher and possibly even worse, with the amount of hard hits against him. His FIP is 4.27, and his expected ERA is 6.16.
- There are many combinations of Dodgers you can use to attack this matchup. Let’s start with Max Muncy. Muncy’s .592 expected slugging rate is nearly in line with his actual slugging rate of .596. The 11-year veteran is currently sporting a career-best 53.4% hard-hit rate.
- Don’t let the seeming lack of counting stats scare you away from Freddie Freeman. His expected slugging rate is at .555, which is over 140 points higher than his actual slugging rate. While not quite a career-best hard-hit rate like Muncy, Freeman’s 48% mark was only beaten in his COVID-19-shortened 2020 season.
- Finding cheap exposure to the Dodgers’ lineup is easier said than done, but check out Alex Freeland. He only has five extra-base hits, but that comes with six barrels (11% barrel rate). If just two more of those barrels had been home runs, he would certainly not have been priced as affordably.
Detroit Tigers Projected Lineup (5/2)
| POS | PLAYER | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary |
| 3B/SS | Kevin McGonigle | $5,100 | $3,400 |
| 2B | Gleyber Torres | $4,000 | $3,00- |
| 3B/1B/2B | Colt Keith | $3,600 | $2,600 |
| OF | Riley Greene | $4,400 | $3,300 |
| C | Dillon Dingler | $4,500 | $3,100 |
| OF | Kerry Carpenter | $3,900 | $2,900 |
| 1B | Spencer Torkelson | $3,200 | $3,100 |
| OF | Wenceel Perez | $2,000 | $2,300 |
| 3B | Jace Jung | $2,100 | $2,000 |
- The Tigers have been a sneaky top-five offense in baseball by wRC+. They have a matchup today against right-handed pitcher Kumar Rocker. I mentioned earlier that Rocker has been consistent at keeping runs off the board, but that is due to a 78% strand rate. His expected ERA is 4.37.
- Whenever you see a right-handed pitcher opposing the Tigers, you have to consider Riley Greene. While not in a platoon, Greene has shown to be decidedly more productive against right-handed pitchers. He has a career .824 OPS against right-handed pitchers and a .695 mark against left-handed pitchers.
- Someone who continues to be in a platoon against right-handed pitchers is Kerry Carpenter. He has a career .866 OPS against right-handed pitchers. While his strikeout rate has jumped to a career-worst 34%, it comes with a career-best hard-hit rate of 54.7%.
- Seeing Spencer Torkelson so affordably priced on DraftKings is a bit surprising. His hard-hit rate, barrel rate and expected slugging rate all indicate he is at least as good a batter as last season, if not better. His expected slugging rate of .495 would be a career best.
Core Studs
| POS | PLAYER | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary |
| 2B/OF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | $5,200 | $2,900 |
| OF | Julio Rodriguez | $4,400 | $2,800 |
| C | Ivan Herrera | $3,900 | $3,200 |
- It’s only a matter of time before Fernando Tatis Jr. turns his 100th percentile hard-hit rate into a home run. He has a matchup with Sean Burke today, who gets 40% of his outs on fly balls. One of Tatis’ fly balls could easily leave the yard. His price on FanDuel is especially appealing.
- Julio Rodriguez is too affordable not to recommend. Rodriguez is a notoriously slow starter, but he has a .966 OPS over the past two weeks, so perhaps he is warming up earlier this season.
- Ivan Herrera‘s profile is exceptionally safe. He has walked more than he has struck out, which shows his strong plate discipline. It’s not just that he is looking to hit for singles, either. He has a 46% hard-hit rate.
Value Plays/Punts
| POS | PLAYER | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary |
| OF/1B (FD) | Jac Caglianone | $3,400 | $2,700 |
| OF | Dominic Canzone | $3,200 | $2,700 |
| 1B | Josh Naylor | $3,800 | $2,800 |
- Eventually, Jac Caglianone is going to convert his top 10th percentile marks in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate into more actual production. He hit one home run yesterday and could hit another today in his matchup against Emerson Hancock.
- Dominic Canzone is a full platoon player. He has gone 0-for-3 this season against left-handed pitchers. Against right-handed pitchers, he has a .867 OPS with 10 extra-base hits in only 64 at-bats.
- Josh Naylor‘s price just keeps climbing after his incredibly cold start. Over the past two weeks, he has posted a .959 OPS. If he keeps posting marks like that he’ll be back to his typical price points.
Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Shota Imanaga (SP- CHC): 4.5 Strikeouts — Higher
Shota Imanaga has spiked both his strikeout rate (28.6%) and whiff rate (31.7%). Those are each about 7% better than last season. Because of that, he has struck out at least five batters in three of his last four starts. He faces a Diamondbacks team that strikes out 21.8% of the time.
Josh Jung (3B – TEX): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher
Josh Jung has been on a quiet tear to begin the season. He has a .321 batting average on the season. It’s even better over his past 14 games with a batting average of .407.
In those 14 games, Jung has exceeded a combined 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 12 games. His matchup today is against right-handed pitcher Keider Montero.
William Contreras (C, DH – MIL): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher
William Contreras is the definition of locked in at the plate over the past few games. In his last two games, he has gone 8-for-9. Today, he faces left-handed pitcher Foster Griffin. Contreras has a near-900 career OPS against left-handed pitchers.
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