While the 2026 NFL regular season is still a few weeks away, now is the time to start preparing for redraft leagues. Many factors go into fantasy football players winning their redraft league every year. However, the top factor is arguably avoiding players that will bust or are overpriced.
- Fantasy Football Research & Advice
- Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on NFFC
Let’s look at six players who are overpriced draft picks based on NFFC ADP for redraft leagues.
Caleb Williams (CHI) – ADP 83.09 | QB5
Last year, Williams finished as the QB5, averaging 1.6 passing touchdowns and 18.7 fantasy points per game. However, he was the QB7 on a points-per-game basis, averaging less than Matthew Stafford (20.6) and Brock Purdy (19.7). Yet, fantasy players can draft both NFC West quarterbacks two rounds after Williams. While fantasy players shouldn’t have an issue with drafting the former USC star, he is overpriced at his current ADP. Furthermore, Jayden Daniels’ ADP is slightly behind Williams’, even though the former LSU star offers significantly more fantasy upside.
Trevor Lawrence (JAC) – ADP 89.11 | QB8
After years of failing to live up to hype, Lawrence had an outstanding 2025 season with Liam Coen taking over on the sidelines. He finished as the QB4, averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game, a career high. However, the former Clemson star needed a hot four-game stretch to finish last year as the QB4. Lawrence scored 36% of his fantasy points and 40% of his total touchdowns last season over the final month. There is no reason why Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott should get drafted after him.
TreVeyon Henderson (NE) – ADP 55.28 | RB21
While fantasy players had high hopes for him as a rookie, Henderson was unstartable for most of the year, finishing as the RB21. His 12.1 PPR fantasy points per game average was lower than Kenneth Gainwell’s (13) and Rhamondre Stevenson‘s (12.8). More importantly, Henderson averaged 11.3 touches and 9.5 fantasy points per game in the regular season with Stevenson healthy. By comparison, he averaged 19 touches and 24.3 fantasy points per game without the veteran playing. Neither Patriots running back should get drafted as more than a flex option.
Keaton Mitchell (LAC) – ADP 135.16 | RB43
Hopefully, fantasy players don’t believe the coach speak about the Chargers using a running back-by-committee approach. Omarion Hampton will be the featured guy, with Kimani Vidal and Mitchell mixing in. Therefore, Mitchell is vastly overvalued at his current ADP. The former undrafted free agent has scored double-digit PPR fantasy points in only one of 18 games over the past two years. Tyler Allgeier, Chris Rodriguez Jr., and Jonah Coleman all have a later ADP than Mitchell. Yet, I would draft all three well before the former East Carolina star.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) – ADP 11.94 | WR6
Jefferson has been a fantasy superstar since he entered the NFL. Unfortunately, the veteran is coming off a massively disappointing season, finishing last year as the WR21, averaging 11.9 PPR fantasy points per game despite finishing seventh in the league with 141 targets. Meanwhile, the Vikings added Jauan Jennings in free agency, adding some target competition for Jefferson. While the addition of Kyler Murray should help him rebound from an awful 2025 season, fantasy players want to avoid drafting Jefferson as a top-six wide receiver or a first-round pick.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) – ADP 118.51 | TE10
My top sleeper tight end last year was Kincaid. Unfortunately, he finished as the TE20, averaging 10.5 PPR fantasy points per game, missing five contests with an injury. While Kincaid set a career high with five receiving touchdowns, he never saw more than six targets in any game, hitting that mark in only three contests. More importantly, Kincaid no longer has a realistic shot at being first or second on his team in targets, which is necessary to justify his ADP, after the Bills traded for DJ Moore.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.