Site Rankings

Questionable

Going to get a chance to carry the load.

Tough matchup, might have a hard time of finding the endzone with Jamal Adams lurking.

Cam's secret weapon. Very well rounded RB and may be asked to do more with only 3 active WRs.

Gets a big bump if Evans sits.

Status uncertain.

He's going to get a lot of work in this offense.

We might be looking at San Francisco's number one wide receiver for week one.

Fournette has been limited in practice due to an ankle injury. However, that shouldn't deter the team from starting him this Sunday as the Jaguars will once again rely on Fournette to be their lead ball carrier against the Patriots. Fournette's ankle might not be the only thing getting in his way on Sunday; the Patriots will most likely put eight men in the box to force Blake Bortles to beat them. If Fournette is able to break through the Patriots defensive line, an upset could be in store.

Tom Brady declined to say whether he will play Sunday, but he returned to practice Friday. Brady's hand has been covered up by a glove, so the extent of the injury is unknown. Brady is the best quarterback on the slate, despite the matchup against a staunch Jaguars defense. The Patriots are secretive when it comes to injuries and this should lower Brady's ownership unless more information leaks before game time.

Game: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-3)
We find ourselves in unfamiliar territory here in Vegas---the first time in NFL Playoff history the 6th seed is favored over the #1 seed. Matt Ryan & Julio Jones crushed the dreams of the upstart LA Rams last week and showed that the young boys on the West Coast weren't quite ready for the big stage. The boys here in the desert just don't believe back up QB Nick Foles can step in for the injured Carson Wentz. If Wentz was healthy this line would be Philly -5 or higher which means we are seeing nearly a full touchdown plus point correction here. Normally the play here would be to fade the dome team traveling outdoors to the cold, windy confines of the Link in mid January. However, the football gods could very well be on the side of dirty birds with an expected high of 50 degrees and not a snow flake in sight. We've seen the sharps pummel the total out here as they envision perhaps the lowest scoring affair of the weekend. Too many factors are aligning here for a return for the second straight year for Matty Ice & crew to the NFC Championship game & I think the line here tells us all we need to know.

Game: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Pick: Tennessee Titans (+13.5)
Last week I was on the Titans plus the 8.5 points ripe with the knowledge that Tennessee enters the post season as the 'only' team with a negative overall point differential. Heading into Foxboro is acompletely different animal this time of year as we all know with Brady & company the past 17 seasons. All this talk now emerges about a potential divorce that will break up the Pats & their dynasty hold. Normally, when the Pats hear controversy they take the "Us versus the World" mantra and bury their opponents. Something tells me 2018 could be different as New England comes in rested but still not fully healthy with Hogan & Burkhead both still limited this week. I think the Murray injury actually helps the Titans as a hungry Derrick Henry showed last week.
I still think the Pats find a way to advance as they always do but I will gobble up the points and hope the public pushes this number to a full +14.

Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)
This game will be my biggest play of the weekend. I love two big angles here that always lead to cashing tickets here in Vegas this time of year: a dominant defense + a strong running game. That formula historically tends to travel well in cold weather games played outside at this time of year and leads to a return to the betting counter at the final whistle. I know backing Blake Bortles heading into Heinz Field is a risky proposition but I think there is extreme value with more than a TD with a team boasting the best defense of the Elite Eight squads and a team that went into Pittsburgh and won earlier this year with ease. Five interceptions of Big Ben at any point of the season can never be overlooked + factor in a limited Antonio Brown versus Jalen Ramsey and a Steelers defense missing their best player Ryan Shazier. I think the Jags have been undervalued all year and I can see Jacksonville catching Pittsburgh at the right time.

Game: New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
For a second straight week the NFL has left the best game for last and in doing so leaves us with perhaps the most difficult game to handicap. The Saints pose the best running game of any team playing this weekend by far versus the NFL's 2nd best run & pass defense. The Wild Card round taught us that against a stout Panthers run defense Drew Brees can still win games with his arm when New Orleans' needs him to. The Vikings beat the Saints 29-19 in week one but I toss that game completely as both Sam Bradford and Dalvin Cook had huge games in that one and as we all know both of those players will be side line spectators on Sunday afternoon. The wildcard here is journeyman QB Case Keenum who is in the NFL MVP discussion since replacing Bradford. I love the angle of playing the 'over' in playoff games played inside a dome stadium and it cashed once again last week when the Saints played at home vs Carolina. I think we get one step closer to making history here as no team prior to this season has ever played in the Super Bowl in their home stadium---the Vikings can accomplish that feat with just two more wins in the friendly home confines of US Bank Stadium.

Which game pick are you most confident with?
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)