Fantasy Football Player Notes

2022 was another year of ultimate teasing by D'Andre Swift. The Lions running back came out of the gates red hot, but got hurt. And when he returned, the Lions refused to give him the featured role in the backfield, opting to use Jamaal Williams as their goal-line battering ram instead. Swift was still uber-efficient on a per-touch basis - fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game and 19th in yards after contact per attempt - but the lack of touchdowns and overall touches was soul-crushing. Swift seemed to never be 100% healthy at any point during the year, which likely influenced his reduced role. With a full bill of health heading into 2023, Swift can still be productive in a potential top-10 offense. But his true fantasy ceiling will be limited with him taking a backseat at the goal line to newly-acquired running back David Montgomery. The former Bear signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery which will no doubt fuel another season of solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams' 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game (higher than Swift's 10.3) and his newly signed contract suggest the team will be featuring plenty of Montgomery at Swift's expense. Swift is entering free agency in 2024, and it's pretty clear up to this point that they don't view him as a feature back or as a piece in their long-term plans. Wouldn't be shocked to see him get traded. The Lions also re-signed Craig Reynolds.

David Montgomery signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. In Montgomery's 15 healthy games played last season, he averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game as the RB26. But in 11 games, he played alongside a healthy Khalil Herbert, Montgomery saw an even bigger decline in production averaging 9.2 fantasy points (RB35), 13 carries, and 48 rushing yards per game. Monty's rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd, while Herbert's 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th.

Even so, it's hard to envision Montgomery as anything less than a fantasy RB2, with the highly-coveted goal-line role likely his to lose on his new team. Keep in mind that last season, Williams carried the ball a league-high 45 times inside the 10-yard line. Williams would finish the year with a league-high 17 rushing TDs; not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns. The scoring production fueled an RB12 finish for Williams.

A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery which will no doubt supply another season of solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams' 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game (higher than Swift's 10.3) and his newly signed contract suggest the team will be featuring plenty of Montgomery (RB27 ADP) at Swift's expense (RB19 ADP).