Fantasy Football Player Notes

Amon-Ra St. Brown proved that his sensational rookie season stretch run was no fluke as he stepped up as one of the best young wide receivers in the game. St. Brown finished as the WR10 ranking 11th in target share, third in target per route run rate, eighth in red zone targets, and fourth in YAC. With only six total touchdowns, St. Brown could be even better in 2023 if the volume remains stable. After starting with seven red zone targets over his first four games, he only saw one red zone target over the next four weeks. Over his final nine games, he amassed 15 red zone targets. If that usage remains stable inside the 20 for the entire 2023 campaign, St. Brown could easily be staring at a double-digit touchdown season and a top-five fantast wideout finish.

Don't give up the faith. Jameson Williams is an extremely talented wide receiver entering his sophomore season with a mountain of upside. Williams was placed in bubble wrap in 2022 by the Detroit Lions, who valued being careful with their blazing-fast rookie coming off a major injury (ACL tear). Assuming Williams is good to go for 2023, he's still the same player that ranked 13th in yards per route run among all FBS wide receivers in 2021 (minimum 50 targets). With D.J. Chark only on a one-year deal and T.J. Hockenson gone, Williams has a clear path to immediate volume alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown in the Lions' passing attack. Williams is a WR3/4 that could crush his ADP in 2023.

2022 was another year of ultimate teasing by D'Andre Swift. The Lions running back came out of the gates red hot, but got hurt. And when he returned, the Lions refused to give him the featured role in the backfield, opting to use Jamaal Williams as their goal-line battering ram instead. Swift was still uber-efficient on a per-touch basis - fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game and 19th in yards after contact per attempt - but the lack of touchdowns and overall touches was soul-crushing. Swift seemed to never be 100% healthy at any point during the year, which likely influenced his reduced role. With a full bill of health heading into 2023, Swift can still be productive in a potential top-10 offense. But his true fantasy ceiling will be limited with him taking a backseat at the goal line to newly-acquired running back David Montgomery. The former Bear signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery which will no doubt fuel another season of solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams' 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game (higher than Swift's 10.3) and his newly signed contract suggest the team will be featuring plenty of Montgomery at Swift's expense. Swift is entering free agency in 2024, and it's pretty clear up to this point that they don't view him as a feature back or as a piece in their long-term plans. Wouldn't be shocked to see him get traded. The Lions also re-signed Craig Reynolds.

David Montgomery signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. In Montgomery's 15 healthy games played last season, he averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game as the RB26. But in 11 games, he played alongside a healthy Khalil Herbert, Montgomery saw an even bigger decline in production averaging 9.2 fantasy points (RB35), 13 carries, and 48 rushing yards per game. Monty's rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd, while Herbert's 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th.

Even so, it's hard to envision Montgomery as anything less than a fantasy RB2, with the highly-coveted goal-line role likely his to lose on his new team. Keep in mind that last season, Williams carried the ball a league-high 45 times inside the 10-yard line. Williams would finish the year with a league-high 17 rushing TDs; not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns. The scoring production fueled an RB12 finish for Williams.

A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery which will no doubt supply another season of solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams' 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game (higher than Swift's 10.3) and his newly signed contract suggest the team will be featuring plenty of Montgomery (RB27 ADP) at Swift's expense (RB19 ADP).

After disappointing seasons with the Rams in 2019 and 2020, then a lackluster first season with the Lions in 2021, Jared Goff turned in a solid year for Detroit in 2022, throwing for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns, good for a QB10 finish in fantasy scoring. Goff thrived under first-year Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who'll announced that he'll be back as Detroit's OC after getting some head-coach buzz at the end of the regular season. Goff will also have some exciting pass catchers to work with in WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams and RB D'Andre Swift.