Fantasy Football Player Notes

Brian Robinson Jr. took little time getting adjusted to NFL bellcow duties after missing the first four games of his NFL career after suffering gunshot wounds in August. From Week 6 onward, B-Rob averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game (RB34). But the points per game hardly depict Robinson's rookie campaign because he was getting fed with volume. He ranked fourth in carries (17.8 per game) and averaged over 70 rushing yards per game as PFF's ninth-highest-graded running back (82.1). The Commanders running back's lack of receiving usage - just 9 catches for 60 yards on a 6% target share - and lack of TDs was the reason for his underwhelming fantasy box scores. And although his receiving usage likely won't change too dramatically with Antonio Gibson back under contract in 2023, I'd fully expect him to experience positive TD regression. Robinson finishes the fantasy regular season 13th in carries, but with just two rushing TDs. His 14 carries from inside the 10-yard line were the most of any player to score fewer than three rushing TDs.

Antonio Gibson's production fell off substantially in 2022 as he split work in the Commanders' backfield with rookie Brian Robinson Jr. In Gibson's last nine healthy games played - he missed the end of the year with a foot injury that required surgery - he and Robinson operated as fantasy RB3s as the RB34 and RB30 respectively in points per game. AG was still the much more involved receiver with an impressive 14% target share - three catches, four targets and 22 receiving yards per game - but he was out-carried 9.7 rushing attempts per game to 16.7 by Robinson. B-Rob's status as the starter on early downs entering the season will surely make Gibson - a free agent at the end of 2023 - an enticing late-round running back option based on his pass-catching prowess and RB1 fantasy production his first two years in the league. Keep in mind, that J.D. McKissic is coming off a neck injury with an out in his contract, slating Gibson to reprise the full-blown receiving role for Washington. Gibson's 80.5 PFF receiving grade ranked third among all RBs in 2022.