The overwhelming majority of fantasy football owners in my friends and family league do not play fantasy baseball, as many of them are not baseball fans, to begin with, or they feel that fantasy baseball is too involved and the MLB season is too long. Those that do begrudgingly sign up each spring do so to keep the fantasy juices flowing until football kicks back into gear in the spring. As fantasy sports junkies, they would participate in just about any fantasy related game I recommended, like fantasy bowling or Roto Oscars.
As you can imagine, winning a league filled with disinterested owners like my football buddies is not a difficult task, requiring a minute amount of research and analysis to gain a huge leg up in the draft. Following the pre-draft rankings from Yahoo and drafting the best available player off the board is the norm for most of my league mates, leaving a multitude of value for me to pick and choose from in the later rounds of the draft or throughout the season off the waiver wire. Akin to shooting fish in a barrel, winning this particular fantasy league does not provide nearly as much pleasure as winning one filled with seasoned owners who take the time to research players and have a genuine love of the game of baseball.
Unfortunately, if you are stuck playing in a non-competitive league like this, the following article on sleeper first basemen will not provide much value, as the majority of players listed below are not going to be drafted or owned in novice leagues. If you are fortunate enough to play in a competitive league filled with competent players (thankfully I do have other leagues without my football buddies), then the following list of players will come in handy as you look for deep value in the draft and throughout the season. Keep in mind that many of these players are deep sleepers whose value may not come to fruition this season, making them players to watch on the waiver wire or late round flyers in leagues with large bench spots.
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Greg Bird (1B – NYY) – 230 ECR, 28th ranked 1B
A former fifth-round pick in the 2011 draft, Bird made his MLB debut for the Yankees on August 13, 2015, in an anti-climatic 0-5 game against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Initially called up to back up starting first baseman Mark Teixeira, Bird would be given the full-time role when Teixeira suffered a season-ending leg fracture four days later.
His stats that season were impressive for a rookie playing on the big stage in New York. Bird hit 11 home runs and drove in 31 RBIs in 178 plate appearances, with a respectable .261 batting average and .871 OPS.
A BABIP of .317 suggests that his .261 batting average is repeatable and not the result of immense luck on balls in play, while his home run to fly ball average of 20.4% and the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium makes a 20-plus home run season within reach. A torn labrum forced the Aurora, Colorado native to miss the entire 2016 campaign, stunting his growth as a young player while bringing into question how his recovered shoulder will respond to a full season of action. Matt Kemp’s power numbers tumbled after he sustained a torn labrum and the former first-round fantasy player has never been quite the same, while other players like Adam LaRoche managed to hit over 30 home runs after his shoulder injury.
At this point in his career, it is far fetched to compare Bird to either of these players, and it is a complete unknown how he will respond after the injury. But as the 28th ranked first baseman and a 230 ECR, he is someone who could have sneaky value this season in deep leagues.
Joshua Bell (1B – PIT) – 290 ECR, 36th ranked 1B
Bell burst onto the baseball scene in 2016 with a grand slam against the Cubs in his second major league at bat, earning a curtain call from the home faithful at PNC Park while giving Pirates fans hope of another young hitter to go along with Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Bell’s rookie season was the plate discipline he displayed as a first-year player. The former second-round pick in the 2011 amateur draft posted a 21 to 19 walk-to-strikeout ratio and 14% walk rate to go along with a .273 batting average in 152 plate appearances.
He saw an impressive 4.1 pitches per plate appearance while swinging and missing at just under 8% of the 617 pitches thrown his way. Where he lacks the overall power of other players listed in this piece like Tommy Joseph and Justin Bour, he more than makes up for it with the ability to hit for extra bases to all parts of the field. Bell is arguably the most well-rounded hitter in this collection and one who could make an immediate impact as a run producing part of the Pirate offense.
Tommy Joseph (1B – PHI) – 213 ECR, 26th ranked 1B
A former first-round pick of the San Francisco Giants who found himself stuck behind a logjam at catcher and first base with the emergence of Brandon Belt and perennial all-star Buster Posey, Tommy Joseph was shipped to the Phillies as part of the Hunter Pence trade in 2012. Injuries and poor plate discipline haunted Joseph over the next three minor league seasons before he turned around his career in the opening month of the 2016 season. A .347 batting average and six home runs in just 100 at bats at Lehigh Valley earned a call up for Joseph to help fill in the gaps for a struggling Ryan Howard.
Joseph would eventually take over the starting role for good by mid-summer and finished with 21 home runs and 47 RBIs in only 347 at bats. A full season of close to 500 and the fact that Ryan Howard is no longer on the team could result in Joseph topping the 30 HR/80 RBIs mark.
Justin Bour (1B – MIA) – 268 ECR, 31st ranked 1B
Manager Don Mattingly told reporters on February 13th that he believes Justin Bour will be the everyday first baseman for the Marlins. When given a near full helping of 446 at-bats two seasons ago, the then 26-year-old Bour responded with 23 home runs and 73 RBIs to go along with a respectable, but not great .262 batting average.
In a platoon role last season, Bour posted the highest OPS of his major league career at .824 while reducing his strike rate to 17.4% and increasing his walk rate to 11.8%. While positive regression in underlying stat categories that show a maturity at the plate, Bour is a candidate to deliver a career-year in the middle of the Miami lineup.
For owners who punt first base for other skill positions early in the draft, Bour is someone worthy of a late round flyer in deeper leagues where you can sit and wait on a player. A respectable 65/25/80/.270 line is not out of the question for Bour, making him a serviceable sleeper option.
Travis Shaw (1B – MIL) – 370 ECR, 34th ranked 1B
Shaw failed to deliver on a golden opportunity to be an everyday player in the Red Sox lineup after taking the starting third base job from Pablo Sandoval. Instead of capitalizing on the chance to hit behind David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez, Shaw batted a pedestrian .242 with 16 home runs and 71 runs batted in in 2016.
His less than inspiring performance gave general manager Dave Dombrowski the freedom to trade Shaw to the Brewers for pitcher Tyler Thornburg. Although his underlying metrics of a 22% soft contact and 36.3% ground ball rate are not inspiring for a 1B/3B when power is somewhat easy to find at those positions, Shaw moved to one of the best hitting ballparks in baseball and will be able to hit in a lineup filled with young, promising players.
A first career 20-HR, 75 RBI season is not out of the question for Shaw, and a return to his .270 batting average that he posted in 2015 will make him less of a liability. Shaw should not be drafted in standard 12-team leagues, but he is someone who could be in line for a breakout season and could help in a playoff push off of the waiver wire.
- Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Second Base
- Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Third Base
- Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Shortstop
- Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Outfielder
- Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Catchers
- Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Starting Pitchers
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Andrew Swanson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @andyswansonESPN.