Last Friday, the first set of my 2017 fantasy football rankings were published. Of course there’s bound to be a lot of backlash to them, simply because there are so many variables and unknowns. But you didn’t think I’d just give you rankings without any explanation, did you?
What we’re here to do in this series is go through my rankings and compare them to ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings), finding the players that I’m much higher or lower on. We will go through every position, finding two players that I like more, as well as two that I like less. I’ll do my best to explain why I have them ranked where I do, and why you should/shouldn’t draft that particular player. Today’s article is on the quarterback position.
Quarterbacks Lower Than They Should Be
Dak Prescott, DAL (My ranking: 5, ECR: 9)
It seems that most have their top six quarterbacks locked up with some combination of Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Matt Ryan. Not that those are bad choices, as they’re in my top seven, but overlooking Prescott is a mistake. Despite throwing just 459 passes last year (23rd in the league), Prescott finished as the No. 6 quarterback. Also keep in mind that he essentially sat out Week 17, which could have pushed him into the top five. He was about as consistent as they come, too, averaging a top-12 QB performance in 68.8 percent of his games, which was tied with Rodgers for the third highest mark in the NFL. Don’t forget that he was also without a healthy Dez Bryant to start the season. He’s one of the biggest bargains in fantasy football at the quarterback position.
Tyrod Taylor, BUF (My ranking: 8, ECR: 16)
Didn’t anyone learn their mistakes from last year? Prior to Sammy Watkins getting hurt in the preseason I had Taylor ranked as my No. 6 quarterback, in front of Ben Roethlisberger. Because of the Watkins injury, expectations had to be lowered, but he remained a QB1 due to his ability to run the ball. Despite missing Watkins for much of the season (was hurt while playing, too), Taylor finished as the No. 8 quarterback while throwing to Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, and Justin Hunter as his top three wide receivers. You may have also forgotten that he finished as the No. 6 quarterback on a points per game basis in 2015. Don’t worry, I’ll be here to remind you that Taylor is a QB1 all offseason. The Bills are also extremely likely to draft a wide receiver in the top two rounds, replenishing Taylor’s weaponry.
Quarterbacks Higher Than They Should Be
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (My ranking: 13, ECR: 8)
I’ll be clear up front in this ranking – Roethlisberger will finish higher than No. 13 if he plays all 16 games, though that’s not likely considering he’s played every game just four times in 13 seasons. Most don’t realize that he’s finished as a top-10 quarterback just three times in his career. But neither of those facts are the main reason he’s outside my top 10. It’s because he’s completely unplayable on the road, averaging just 270 yards with 1.0 touchdowns and 0.9 interceptions per game the last three years, which amounts to just 13.9 fantasy points per game. Overall, he has scored fewer than 14 fantasy points in 32 of his last 86 games played (from 2011-2016), which doesn’t exactly scream QB1.
Cam Newton, CAR (My ranking: 11, ECR: 7)
This is a ranking that I’m willing to budge on a little bit, depending on what the Panthers do in the draft. At this moment in time, I’m expecting them to draft a running back relatively high, which would drag down Newton’s rushing touchdown potential. Even if they don’t Newton’s value is going to take a hit considering they’ve already stated they wanting him running the ball less after suffering his concussion in Week 4 last year. In the 11 games that followed, Newton ran the ball just 61 times for 212 yards and three touchdowns. Those numbers over a full 16-game season would equivalate to 308 yards and four touchdowns. To give you a comparison, Aaron Rodgers ran for 369 yards and four touchdowns in 2016. Newton can’t make up for that with his passing, as his average season consists of 3,600 yards and 23 touchdowns. He’s barely a QB1 if they aren’t going to use his legs.
More Under/Overvalued Picks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
