Pitching is exceptionally lackluster on tonight’s main slate. We’ve reached the back end of rotations, and the result is some juicy matchups for hitters and high over/under totals. I’m completely enamored with one offense, in particular, tonight, and the result is a GPP lineup below featuring a stack. The stack will probably be fairly chalky, but that’s okay. The upside is hard to ignore, and the presence of some other strong stacks will likely knock the ownership down a pinch from as high as it should be. Because the stack is the focal point of this particular lineup, you won’t find honorable mentions suggested at the positions featuring members of the stack. My suggestion is that if you’re playing multiple GPP lineups, mix in the honorable mention options around the stack.
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Pitcher
Francisco Liriano (TOR): $8,900 @ Rays
Liriano is arguably the best pitcher on the slate. Take a second to wrap your head around that statement after being treated to plenty of talented pitching earlier in the week. The lefty isn’t lacking for talent, but he’s erratic. The 33-year-old is only a year removed from posting a 3.38 ERA (3.19 FIP, 3.16 xFIP, and 3.38 SIERA, per FanGraphs, and 3.25 DRA, according to Baseball Prospectus) and 26.5% K%. He struggled early last year, but righted the ship after the Blue Jays acquired him. The southpaw made 10 appearances for the Blue Jays, eight of which were starts. In his eight starts, he whipped up a 2.66 ERA (3.86 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, and 3.69 SIERA), 1.16 WHIP, 8.1% BB%, 24.8% K%, and 52.7% GB% in 47.1 innings. Liriano always has ample strikeout upside, but the sky’s the limit against the Rays tonight. Take a look at the numbers against lefties since 2014 for the 13 hitters on Tampa Bay’s active roster right here. Only four hitters have a strikeout rate under 20%, and only two check in under Evan Longoria‘s mark of 17.6%. The Blue Jays are -124 favorites, according to Pinnacle, the game’s over/under total is only eight runs, and Tropicana Field is a pitcher-friendly park. Liriano deserves to be the highest owned starting pitcher on this slate, and his upside is unrivaled by any other arm.
Pitching is exceptionally lackluster on tonight’s main slate. We’ve reached the back end of rotations, and the result is some juicy matchups for hitters and high over/under totals. I’m completely enamored with one offense, in particular, tonight, and the result is a GPP lineup below featuring a stack. The stack will probably be fairly chalky, but that’s okay. The upside is hard to ignore, and the presence of some other strong stacks will likely knock the ownership down a pinch from as high as it should be. Because the stack is the focal point of this particular lineup, you won’t find honorable mentions suggested at the positions featuring members of the stack. My suggestion is that if you’re playing multiple GPP lineups, mix in the honorable mention options around the stack.
Check out today’s $110k MLB Moonshot contest at DraftKings
Pitcher
Francisco Liriano (TOR): $8,900 @ Rays
Liriano is arguably the best pitcher on the slate. Take a second to wrap your head around that statement after being treated to plenty of talented pitching earlier in the week. The lefty isn’t lacking for talent, but he’s erratic. The 33-year-old is only a year removed from posting a 3.38 ERA (3.19 FIP, 3.16 xFIP, and 3.38 SIERA, per FanGraphs, and 3.25 DRA, according to Baseball Prospectus) and 26.5% K%. He struggled early last year, but righted the ship after the Blue Jays acquired him. The southpaw made 10 appearances for the Blue Jays, eight of which were starts. In his eight starts, he whipped up a 2.66 ERA (3.86 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, and 3.69 SIERA), 1.16 WHIP, 8.1% BB%, 24.8% K%, and 52.7% GB% in 47.1 innings. Liriano always has ample strikeout upside, but the sky’s the limit against the Rays tonight. Take a look at the numbers against lefties since 2014 for the 13 hitters on Tampa Bay’s active roster right here. Only four hitters have a strikeout rate under 20%, and only two check in under Evan Longoria‘s mark of 17.6%. The Blue Jays are -124 favorites, according to Pinnacle, the game’s over/under total is only eight runs, and Tropicana Field is a pitcher-friendly park. Liriano deserves to be the highest owned starting pitcher on this slate, and his upside is unrivaled by any other arm.
Brett Anderson (LAD): $6,400 @ Brewers
Last year, like others before it, was mostly a lost year for Anderson. He pitched in only four games (three starts) for the Dodgers. The Cubs added him in the offseason, and he won the fifth starter spot. At his best, Anderson limits free passes and induces ground balls at one of the highest rates in the Majors. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, but the Brewers have tons of swing and miss in their lineup, and they could help him in that department tonight. Look at these juicy strikeout rates for Milwaukee’s active hitters versus lefties since 2014! The lowest strikeout rate in the bunch is Manny Pina‘s 15.2% in only 33 plate appearances. It’s entirely possible Anderson is a shell of what we’ve seen in the past and gets rocked, but the fact he won a rotation spot inspires confidence, and in GPPs, it’s all about chasing upside. Against a Brewers team that punches out a ton, Anderson has upside. He and the Cubs are -160 betting favorites.
Honorable Mentions
Catcher
Kyle Schwarber (CHC): $5,000 @ Brewers
Let the stacking of Cubs begin at backstop. The game’s over/under total is nine runs at hitter-friendly Miller Park, and with the Cubs favored, they’re projected to do the heavy lifting. It starts at the top of the order with their burly slugger. In his first 225 plate appearances against righties in The Show, he’s killed it with a .397 OBP, .270 ISO, and 160 wRC+. His platoon split lines up favorably with Jimmy Nelson‘s struggles with lefties. Last year, Nelson yielded a .357 OBP and .340 wOBA to lefties. For his career, Nelson’s allowed a .361 OBP, .452 slugging, and .353 wOBA to lefties. File Nelson’s struggles with lefties away in the memory bank, Schwarber won’t be the only left-handed batter from the Cubs I advocate using tonight.
First Base
Anthony Rizzo (CHC): $5,500 @ Brewers
Well, that didn’t take long. Here’s another piece of lefty exposure to Nelson. Since 2014, the Cubs’ No. 3 hitter owns a .380 OBP, .259 ISO, and 149 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. To put those numbers in further perspective, among qualified hitters (excluding Eric Thames‘ nine plate appearances against righties this year) in that time frame, he ranks tied for 10th in OBP, tied for sixth in ISO, and seventh in wRC+. Rizzo burned me when I touted him earlier in the week, but I’d be foolish if I didn’t go back to the well.
Second Base
Wilmer Flores (NYM): $3,300 vs. Marlins
Wei-Yin Chen didn’t endear himself to Marlins fans in his first season in Miami, and right-handed batters punished him (.488 slugging and .334 wOBA). The veteran lefty has always struggled to keep right-handed batters in check (.462 slugging and .334 wOBA), and he’s been victimized by 100 homers allowed to the 2,658 righties he’s faced. Flores is a righty who’s more than capable of putting a charge into the ball. Since 2014, he’s rattled off a .265 ISO and 136 wRC+ against lefties. Citi Field will help Flores’ odds of reaching the seats, too, with a park factor for right-handed batter homers of 107. He offers valuable salary relief at just $3,300 without sacrificing upside.
Honorable Mentions
Third Base
Kris Bryant (CHC): $5,500 @ Brewers
Bryant isn’t a lefty, but that shouldn’t hinder him against Nelson. For starters, the reigning National League MVP is responsible for a .371 OBP, .225 ISO, and 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in his young career. Furthermore, last year Nelson fell apart against righties and was actually worse against them than lefties coughing up a .365 OBP and .350 wOBA. Perhaps it was an off year for Nelson against righties and he’ll get back to his 2015 form, but the 152 righties he faced in 2014 also gave him trouble totaling a .364 OBP and .349 wOBA. Nelson has his hands full tonight, and I suspect the Cubs are going to lay the wood to him.
Shortstop
Eduardo Escobar (MIN): $2,900 @ White Sox
Escobar isn’t a regular starter, so you’ll need to make sure he’s in the lineup tonight. Having said that, I’d hazard a guess — as you’ve likely deduced from his inclusion in this piece — he’ll start tonight with the White Sox starting lefty Derek Holland. Holland was smashed last year by right-handed batters yielding a .341 OBP, .471 slugging, and .346 wOBA to them. Paul Molitor would be foolish not to get another right-handed bat in the lineup against him. The switch-hitting Escobar is a slightly above average offensive player against southpaws with a .179 ISO and 105 wRC+ versus them since 2014. He, like Flores, is attractive salary relief.
Honorable Mentions
Outfield
Ben Zobrist (CHC): $4,700 @ Brewers
Zobrist has hit cleanup in both of his starts, putting him behind the aforementioned trio of Cubs’ hitters. His work against right-handed pitchers isn’t as breath taking, but it’s solid (.352 OBP, .153 ISO, and 111 wRC+ since 2014). Also, batting behind those three studs puts him in a great position to pile up some steaks. He might be a touch over priced for his statistics against righties, but he’s an integral part of the stack as the cleanup hitter.
George Springer (HOU): $4,700 vs. Royals
Lemmings are going to point chase and drive Springer’s ownership up after he’s homered in consecutive games. I’m not looking to point chase, though. I’m more concerned about his excellence against lefties. Since 2014, he has a .389 OBP, .249 ISO, and 150 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers in 459 plate appearances. His fence-clearing power will get a lift again thanks to his home park’s right-handed batter park factor of 104 for homers. Opposing starter Jason Vargas missed most of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery, but his fly-ball approach (42.4% FB% allowed to righties since 2014) plays right into the hands of Springer making it a third tater in three nights and four in five games.
Matt Joyce (OAK): $3,000 @ Rangers
Joyce makes for the third punt on this squad at just $3,000. He’s off to a sluggish start, but it’s an itty bitty sample size. Last year he rebounded from a miserable 2015, and he did most of his damage for the Pirates when facing right-handed pitching. In 2016, Joyce hit 12 homers with a .406 OBP, .234 ISO, and 141 wRC+ in 251 plate appearances against righties. The veteran lefty was extremely patient (20.3% BB%) and clobbered the pitches he put in play (37.5% Hard% versus righties). He’s twice hit second and once hit leadoff for the A’s thus far this year, and he has a dreamy matchup with A.J. Griffin. Griffin vomited all over himself against left-handed batters last year, spitting up a .355 OBP, .623 slugging (!), 18 homers (!!), and .406 wOBA (!!!) to the 245 he faced. I’m not sure if he could have produced worse results if he told opposing left-handed batters what was coming. His home park won’t help him curb his struggles with lefties since it features a left-handed batter park factors of 106 for singles, 101 for doubles/triples, 105 for homers and 113 for runs. Don’t be fooled by the price point, Joyce offers a ton of bang for your buck.
Honorable Mentions
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
