There’s a game at Coors Field tonight, and while there are pieces of that contest I like and intend on using, those pieces will complement a different stack and a high-priced SP pairing. As a result of having very limited exposure to Coors Field, the roster below is of the GPP variety. It packs big upside with lower ownership appeal.
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Pitcher
Kenta Maeda (LAD): $9,800 @ Padres
A matchup with the Friars will usually add some percentage points to any pitcher’s ownership rate, but I don’t suspect Maeda’s ownership rate will be terribly high for a couple of reasons. The first reason is his near five-figure salary and the wide array of other strong options in his salary vicinity (as well as cheaper). The second reason I don’t believe Maeda’s ownership will be too high is his 6.58 ERA through five starts. So, why the heck am I touting him? Well, let’s start by circling back to the Padres. This year, they rank 25th in wRC+ (85) against right-handed pitchers, per FanGraphs, and they’re tied for the highest strikeout rate (25.7%) against them. They’ve been struggling even more over the last couple of weeks with an 83 wRC+ and 28.4% K% over the last 14 days. No team has struck out at a higher rate than they have during that time frame. Their propensity for punching out pairs nicely with Maeda’s bat-missing stuff. Even while struggling, Maeda’s sporting a 14.3% swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) that would rank sixth highest among qualified pitchers if he’d pitched enough innings to be a qualified pitcher. The 29-year-old pitcher is coming off his best start of the year in which he allowed just two earned runs on five hits and one walk with eight strikeouts in seven innings. Was his strong start just the product of facing a bad offense (the Phillies)? Perhaps. However, it’s worth noting Maeda further scaled back his fourseam fastball usage and leaned heavily on his cutter, according to Brooks Baseball. Maeda and the Dodgers are -153 favorites, per Pinnacle, and the game’s over/under total is only 7.5 runs at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
Chris Archer (TB): $9,600 vs. Blue Jays
I suspect Archer will be pretty popular tonight, but I think a Maeda/Archer pairing will be extremely unique. Many GPP gamers will be unwilling to commit approximately 39% of their salary cap space to their SP pairing with the boppers at Coors Field carrying bloated salaries. Anyway, let’s move on to why Archer has massive upside tonight. The 28-year-old has a 3.43 ERA (3.38 FIP, 4.29 xFIP, and 4.18 SIERA as well as 1.77 DRA, according to Baseball Prospectus), 1.27 WHIP, and 22.4% K% through six starts spanning 39.1 innings. Archer’s 11.8% SwStr% is tied for the 18th highest among qualified pitchers, but his strikeout rate ranks just 40th. Archer has more strikeout potential than his strikeout rate suggests. The Blue Jays make for a favorable matchup, too. Toronto is tied for 15th in wRC+ (100) versus right-handed pitchers this year, and their 22.4% K% is tied for the 11th highest. The host Rays and Archer are -142 favorites, and the game’s over/under total is only 7.5 runs. Sign me up for those favorable betting odds.
Honorable Mentions
- Stephen Strasburg (WAS): $10,600 @ Phillies
- Francisco Liriano (TOR): $8,200 @ Rays
- Michael Fulmer (DET): $8,000 @ Athletics
Catcher
Rene Rivera (NYM): $2,200 vs. Marlins
Rivera’s inclusion on this roster is the product of his tiny salary. In his defense, he does have a cushy matchup with Tom Koehler (5.40 ERA, 6.40 FIP, 4.63 xFIP, 4.79 SIERA, and 8.37 DRA), and *spoiler alert* the Mets are the team I’m advocating stacking tonight. If you opt to save salary at another position, feel free to ditch Rivera and turn elsewhere at backstop.
Honorable Mentions
- Evan Gattis (HOU): $3,600 @ Angels
- Geovany Soto (CHW): $2,800 @ Orioles
- Derek Norris (TB): $2,700 vs. Blue Jays
First Base
Yonder Alonso (OAK): $2,900 vs. Tigers
Do I like the matchup with Michael Fulmer? No, not exactly. I do, however, love that Alonso’s salary hasn’t caught up to his new approach and outstanding results. I gushed about Alonso for RotoGraphs last week, and his new approach that includes lifting the ball much more frequently has resulted in a .282 ISO, .382 OBP, and 167 wRC+ with six homers in 89 plate appearances this year. Against right-handed pitchers this season, Alonso has a .397 OBP, .246 ISO, and 174 wRC+. Does that sound like a sub-$3,000 hitter to you? It doesn’t sound like one to me. The A’s have taken note of the veteran first baseman’s big start, and they bumped him up to the cleanup spot for yesterday’s game against righty Kyle Gibson. I’d be shocked if Alonso’s ownership is north of 5%. Yeah, buddy, I’ll take this new version of Alonso as a contrarian pick.
Honorable Mentions
- Justin Bour (MIA): $3,000 @ Mets
- Rickie Weeks Jr. (TB): $2,600 vs. Blue Jays
Second Base
Neil Walker (NYM): $3,600 vs. Marlins
Koehler has no answer for lefties this year. He’s allowed an eye-popping .500 OBP, .850 slugging, and .543 wOBA to them. Last year, he surrendered a .353 OBP, .420 slugging, and .332 wOBA to left-handed batters, so struggles with lefties are nothing new to the 30-year-old pitcher — albeit not to the extent he’s struggling this year. With the Mets banged up, Walker has been serving as the team’s cleanup hitter. Since 2014, he has a .334 OBP, .187 ISO, and 118 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers. He and the other lefties from the Mets will also get a ballpark factor boost from a left-handed batter park factor of 108 for homers, according to the 3-year rolling average found at StatCorner.
Third Base
Jake Lamb (ARI): $5,100 @ Rockies
I’m not including an honorable mention at the hot corner because Lamb is a cornerstone piece of this roster. He’ll be treated to these awesome left-handed batter park factors at Coors Field, and he’s confirming the suspicions of many folks who felt his second-half fade last year was largely due to being banged up. He’s ripped off a .367 OBP, .268 ISO, and 135 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year, and since breaking out last year, he has a .349 OBP, .279 ISO, and 129 wRC+ against righties.
Shortstop
Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM): $3,600 vs. Marlins
Cabrera is a table setter from the two-hole for the Mets, and he’s another left-handed batter who will enjoy Koehler’s struggles with lefties. Since 2014, he’s been slightly above average against righties with a .322 OBP, .173 ISO, and 106 wRC+. He’s been even better than that since joining the Mets last year recording a .328 OBP, .195 ISO, and 113 wRC+.
Outfield
Jay Bruce (NYM): $4,200 vs. Marlins
Bruce hit a homer yesterday, but his final season total won’t reflect that since the game was washed out early and postponed. The homer that wasn’t would have pushed his season total to 10, but even without it he’s off to a monstrous start with nine long balls. The lefty slugger has crushed righties this year to the tune of a .427 OBP, .403 ISO, and 205 wRC+, and since 2014, he has a .233 ISO against righties.
Michael Conforto (NYM): $3,700 vs. Marlins
Conforto is the last member of the Mets stack, but he’s the first one who’ll take cuts against Koehler tonight. It’s almost unfathomable at this point that the Mets and manager Terry Collins so badly mishandled Conforto. Only injuries forced Collins’ hand in using Conforto regularly, and he’s done nothing but mash (.427 OBP, .343 ISO, and 187 wRC+ this year). The sweet-swinging lefty has pummeled righties this year for a .444 OBP, .344 ISO, and 196 wRC+, and for his career, he has a .352 OBP, .252 ISO, and 135 wRC+. He’ll almost certainly be the highest owned member of our stack and a very popular source of salary relief for gamers, but he’s also an integral part of this stack that you’d be foolish to leave off.
A.J. Pollock (ARI): $5,200 @ Rockies
Take your pick of the trio of Arizona’s outfielders. Mine is the priciest of the bunch, Pollock. He kicks things off as the leadoff hitter for the Diamondbacks, and in addition to his hitting exploits (.364 OBP, .167 ISO, and 126 wRC+ against righties since 2014), he’s a hell raiser on the bases. Pollock is second in the Majors with 11 stolen bases this year, and Arizona has more stolen bases as a team (36) than any other team has total stolen-base attempts! Pollock has multiple avenues to point scoring, and his ceiling is through the roof.
Honorable Mentions
- Yasmany Tomas (ARI): $4,800 @ Rockies
- David Peralta (ARI): $4,700 @ Rockies
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
