Perhaps I’m a glutton for punishment, but a probable pitching change from a lefty to a below-average righty after DraftKings released their pricing has me going back to the well with some offensive players who disappointed me last night. There was another probable pitching change that greatly changed the composition of this roster. The roster below entirely fades Coors Field.
It’s a pitcher-heavy lineup with an eye on being contrarian. In other words, it’s another GPP roster. If you’re a gamer playing many lineups in GPPs tonight, by all means, get some exposure to Coors Field.
The lineup below isn’t meant to dissuade gamers from using hitters in Colorado, but it’s meant to provide a strong, contrarian GPP option. You’ll also notice the honorable mentions’ price points are all over the map and do include some options from Coors Field. That’s because if you substitute the lone highlighted honorable mention pitcher for my chosen SP1, you’ll have a whopping $4,600 extra salary to spread across to your bats.
Check out today’s MLB Moonshot contest at DraftKings 
Pitcher
Clayton Kershaw (LAD): $14,200 @ Padres
It wasn’t supposed to be a Kershaw slate, but Brandon McCarthy was bumped back to Sunday, and here we are. As a result of the probable pitching change, there isn’t a betting line out at the time of writing. I’ll hazard a guess Kershaw and the Dodgers will be around a -300 favorite with a game over/under total of 6.5 runs.
In other words, Kershaw is going to be a big favorite, and the game’s over/under total will be low at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. On a Coors slate also featuring Kershaw, you aren’t quite forced to pick a side, but it’s close. Clearly, Kershaw is the side I’m taking.
You know by now Kershaw’s awesome, and it speaks volumes about his awesomeness that a 2.61 ERA is somewhat disappointing. The studly lefty is exceptionally tough to get on base against with a 0.87 WHIP, and he punches out batters at a high rate (27.7% K%) while hardly ever issuing free passes (1.9% BB%).
His matchup couldn’t be much juicier. The Padres rank 28th in wRC+ (55) against southpaws this year, according to FanGraphs, and they’ve struck out in 21.9% of their plate appearances against lefties.
They aren’t in good form, either. Over the last 14 days, they rank 27th in wRC+ (82), and their 26.6% K% is the highest in that time frame.
Dylan Bundy (BAL): $8,400 vs. White Sox
Bundy was my favorite starting pitching option before Kershaw was bumped up to take McCarthy’s start. Now, he settles in nicely as an SP2 with drool-inducing upside. The White Sox rank dead last in wRC+ (68) against right-handed pitchers this year, and they’ve struck out in 25.0% of their plate appearances against righties.
They’re not only awful, but they are punched out a bunch. Yup, that’s a great combo for a starting pitcher to pile up points against. Bundy was drafted with expectations he’d blossom into an ace for the Orioles.
Injuries slowed his ascent to the top of their rotation, but he’s delivering on his promise this season with a 1.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. His underlying stats don’t support a sub-2.00 ERA, but his 10.3% swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) is exactly league average, yet his strikeout rate (16.6%) is well below the league average (21.5%). So, while his ERA is due for correction negatively, his strikeout rate is due for correction positively.
Digging into the underlying stats even further reveals that his .257 BABIP isn’t merely lucky. Bundy does an extraordinary job of inducing pop-ups with a 19.1% IFFB% this year after posting a 19.3% IFFB% last year.
Pop-ups are “gimme outs,” and Bundy’s inducing a ton of them. I fully expect him to dominate, and oddsmakers don’t disagree with that assessment with the O’s serving as -213 favorites, according to Pinnacle.
Honorable Mention
- Gerrit Cole (PIT): $9,600 vs. Brewers
Catcher
Stephen Vogt (OAK): $3,200 vs. Tigers
The Athletics are a tempting stack option, but this team will feature Vogt hooked with another teammate instead of a full stack. Jordan Zimmermann has been awful since joining the Tigers as a free agent last year, but he’s been especially bad this year with a 6.18 ERA (5.43 FIP, 5.77 xFIP, and 5.54 SIERA) through five starts. He’s not missing bats (13.0% K%), and hitters are teeing off for a 28.0% LD%, 48.4% FB%, and 43.8% hard-hit ball percentage (Hard%).
Lefties have managed only a .317 wOBA against him this year, but I don’t expect that to last with a 10.0% K%, 24.5% LD%, 51.0% FB%, and 45.1% Hard%. Since 2014, Vogt’s been an above average hitter against righties with a .330 OBP, .177 ISO, and 115 wRC+.
Honorable Mentions
- Buster Posey (SF): $4,300 @ Reds
- Chris Iannetta (ARI): $3,500 @ Rockies
- Alex Avila (DET): $3,200 @ Athletics
First Base
Yonder Alonso (OAK): $2,900 vs. Tigers
I pointed out the fact a reinvented Alonso is underpriced in yesterday’s piece, and he remains underpriced tonight. He added another two hits to his season ledger last night, and his new flyball-happy approach has paid off in spades. This year, he’s racked up a .403 OBP, .238 ISO, 167 wRC+, 27.7% LD%, 44.7% FB%, and 38.3% Hard%.
He’s tailor made to pummel Zimmermann tonight. If you’re not ponying all the way up to yesterday’s big performer, Paul Goldschmidt, spin all the way down to Alonso.
Honorable Mention
- Paul Goldschmidt (ARI): $5,300 @ Rockies
Second Base
Kolten Wong (STL): $2,700 vs. Braves
The injury bug has bit the Red Birds, and Wong was a beneficiary last night moving all the way up to the top of the order. A sub-$3,000 leadoff hitter is a hell of a bargain, especially when they’re at least a decent hitter. Wong’s a couple of ticks below average against righties since 2014 with a 98 wRC+, but his .323 OBP and .146 ISO aren’t bad.
Furthermore, he’s been very good this year with a .394 OBP, .185 ISO, and 125 wRC+. Against righties this year, he’s acquitted himself well with a .380 OBP, .217 ISO, and 125 wRC+.
All in all, Wong’s a steal, namely if he hits leadoff again. As a side note, Julio Teheran’s coughed up a .407 OBP and .362 wOBA to lefties.
Honorable Mentions
- Daniel Murphy (WAS): $4,600 @ Phillies
- Rougned Odor (TEX): $3,800 @ Mariners
Third Base
Joey Gallo (TEX): $3,200 @ Mariners
Gallo’s been overmatched in “The Show” before this year, but the three-true-outcomes (TTO) hitter has cut back on the negative outcome (strikeouts) while showcasing his jaw-dropping power more often. Make no bones about it, he still punches out a ton (38.6% K% against righties this year), but he offsets the strikeouts with massive power (seven homers and .347 ISO against righties this year).
My favorite time to deploy Gallo on daily baseball rosters is when he draws a pitcher who lacks big strikeout stuff. Chase De Jong fits the bill for the type of pitcher I like to attack with Gallo. The rookie pitcher has a paltry 5.6% SwStr% with an 8.1% K% in three appearances (one start), spanning 7.1 innings.
You can check out a scouting report on De Jong written by Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs in April. Don’t be scared off by Safeco Field, either. According to the rolling three-year average at StatCorner, it has a 113 park factor for homers for lefties.
Honorable Mentions
- Nolan Arenado (COL): $5,200 vs. Diamondbacks
- Eugenio Suarez (CIN): $3,700 vs. Giants
Shortstop
Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM): $3,600 vs. Marlins
Cabrera received a routine day off last night before entering as a pinch-hitter, and I expect him to be back in the starting lineup tonight. Wei-Yin Chen was originally slated to start this contest, but he hit the DL, and Odrisamer Despaigne was summoned from the minors to start in his place.
Despaigne is a veteran of 252.1 unexciting innings in the majors. Lefties have recorded a .349 OBP and .336 wOBA against Despaigne, and he’s gotten worse across the board against lefties each year in The Show. I’ll gladly take an above average hitter who’s a table setter for the Mets against the Cuban righty.
Honorable Mentions
- Trevor Story (COL): $4,600 vs. Diamondbacks
- Chris Owings (ARI): $4,600 @ Rockies
- Jean Segura (SEA): $4,300 vs. Rangers
Outfield
Jay Bruce (NYM): $4,000 vs. Marlins
I’m not stopping with Cabrera. Queue up another Mets stack. The Mets hung eight runs on the Marlins last night, but the stack I suggested mostly disappointed.
They’ll have another crack at a below average right-handed pitcher, and because the salaries were released before Chen was placed on the DL, you’re getting a discount from what they’d likely have been if Despaigne was originally listed as the probable pitcher. As for Bruce, he’s the owner of a .233 ISO against right-handed pitchers since 2014, and this year, he has a .427 OBP, .403 ISO, and 206 wRC+ against righties. Add in Citi Field’s 107 left-handed batter park factor for homers, and you have further incentive for using the Mets’ number-three hitter.
Michael Conforto (NYM): $3,600 vs. Marlins
I expected more from Conforto last night, but he reached base two more times in five plate appearances. He’s been a catalyst atop the order for the Mets tattooing opposing pitchers. Righties have felt his wrath this year with Conforto racking up an impressive .444 OBP, .344 ISO, and 197 wRC+.
He hasn’t exactly been a slouch against righties in his young career overall, either. In 546 plate appearances against righties in his career, Conforto has ripped off a .352 OBP, .252 ISO, and 135 wRC+ while smacking 27 round-trippers.
Nelson Cruz (SEA): $4,200 vs. Rangers
Cruz shouldn’t be this cheap against a lefty. He’s one of the best lefty mashers on the planet. Among qualified hitters since 2014, he ranks tied for sixth in OBP (.406), second in ISO (.309), and third in wRC+ (180).
You could bump Cruz up a spot in all three of those categories, too, if you choose to look past the 27 plate appearances for Eric Thames against lefties that make him a qualified hitter. Cruz isn’t taking aim at a tough lefty, either. Martin Perez has yielded a .383 OBP and .346 wOBA to right-handed batters this year.
Honorable Mentions
- A.J. Pollock (ARI): $5,300 @ Rockies
- Ian Desmond (COL): $5,000 vs. Diamondbacks
- Yasmany Tomás (ARI): $4,700 @ Rockies
- Aaron Judge (NYY): $4,500 @ Cubs
- Khris Davis (OAK): $3,800 vs. Tigers
- Delino DeShields (TEX): $3,100 @ Mariners
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
